25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU -2.5

This is a rematch from the final game of the regular season in which Oklahoma beat TCU 73-68 at home.  Now they face each other four days later on a neutral court in the Big 12 Tournament, and I'm backing the Horned Frogs to get revenge in a big way.

The Horned Frogs are much better than their 17-14 record this season as they have been snake-bitten all year in close games.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but four of those losses have come by 5 points or less.  They have a chance to right the ship now here in this Big 12 Tournament.

Lon Kruger is 5-15 ATS in March road games as the coach of Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 1-9 in all road games this season.  The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have quit.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing all four games by 15 points or more.  That includes their 57-83 laugher at home against Michigan in the season finale on Senior Day.

Penn State also enters the Big Ten Tournament on a 5-game losing streak, but it has at least been competitive against some quality teams.  The Nittany Lions lost by 4 to Purdue, by 10 at Minnesota, by 1 to Ohio State and by 11 at Iowa.

Penn State is 59-38 ATS in its last 97 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. losing teams.  The Nittany Lions are 12-3-1 ATS int heir last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need to win at least a couple games in this ACC Tournament to get in, and I expect them to start that mission with success tonight against Pittsburgh.

The Yellow Jackets have been undervalued all season in ACC play, and they are again lacking the respect they deserve here as underdogs.  They are 8-10 SU but 12-6 ATS in ACC action this season.  One of those was a 61-52 home victory as 1.5-point favorites over this same Pitt squad.

The Panthers are just 4-14 SU & 9-9 ATS in ACC play this season.  They didn't play with much effort down the stretch as they went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They lost by 18 to UNC, by 9 to Georgia Tech and by 25 to Virginia in their final three games of the season.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* MAC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +8.5

Central Michigan could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now heading into the MAC Tournament.  That's because the Chippewas were awful to finish the regular season, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Now the Chippewas find themselves catching a whopping 8.5 points on the road against a Kent State team that they already beat 105-98 as 6.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  I think they have the potential to pull off the upset again here tonight.

Kent State has been winning, but it hasn't been winning by margins.  In fact, each of the Golden Flashes' last eight victories have all come by 8 points or less.  They haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 8 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system going against them pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Golden Flashes are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +4

The Purdue Boilermakers have already clinched the Big Ten regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.  They literally have nothing to play for here Sunday, while the Northwestern Wildcats are still trying to punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats will bring a lot of emotion and energy to this game Sunday.  They are trying to become the first team in program history to make the NCAA Tournament.  It's Senior Day, and Welsh-Ryan Arena will be shut down after the game for a major renovation expected to take more than a year.

Northwestern is 14-3 at home this season.  Purdue is just 5-4 in true road games.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Northwestern is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Take Northwestern Sunday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  They have gone 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch have come by 3 to Baylor and by 3 at Iowa State, which are two of the top teams in the conference.

Now the Cowboys want to end the regular season on a high note with a home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Senior Day.  They'll obviously be highly motivated to win this game, especially after hanging tough in an 80-87 loss at Kansas in their first meeting.

I think this is an extreme flat spot for the Jayhawks, who have already wrapped up the Big 12.  The Jayhawks were lackluster in a 73-63 home win over Oklahoma last time out as 14.5-point favorites.  They actually trailed in that game in the second half.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency today, either.

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 3-10 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -2

For whatever reason, Virginia Tech continues to lack the respect it deserves when playing at home.  The Hokies are 15-1 at home this season and now they're only laying 2 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team today.

They are only laying 2 points despite the fact that they have been underdogs in each of their last three home games, yet won all three outright over Virginia, Clemson and Miami.  Now they're up against a Wake Forest team that is just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in true road games this year.

Wake Forest is 2-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Hokies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Virginia Tech is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Iowa State/WVU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +8

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the West Virginia Mountaineers.  This despite the fact that they are playing their best basketball of the season coming in, and at 12-5 in Big 12 play, can secure second place alone in the conference with a win here tonight.

The Cyclones are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech.  Iowa State has actually won a whopping five Big 12 road games this season, which is very impressive in arguably the toughest conference in the country.

The Cyclones are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Take Iowa State Friday.

20* Cal/Utah ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Utah Utes are showing excellent value as small 1.5-point home favorites over the Cal Bears tonight.  The Utes are 12-3 at home this season, while the Bears are just 3-4 in true road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And Cal beat Utah 77-75 at home in their first meeting this season, so the Utes will be in clear revenge mode here tonight.

Utah is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern PK

The Northwestern Wildcats will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost five of their last seven to fall to 20-9 on the season and somewhat in jeopardy of missing the tournament.  Look for them to stem the tide and get a big home win tonight.

Northwestern is 13-3 at home this season.  Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-7 in true road games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.

I think the Wolverines come in overvalued due to winning five of their last six, while the Wildcats are undervalued right now.  Plus, this is a letdown spot for Michigan off a huge win over Purdue last time out.  I don't think the Wolverines will want this one as bad as the Wildcats.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  This is clearly a must-win game for them tonight, and it's also Senior Night, so they'll be highly motivated for a victory over the Pitt Panthers.

The Yellow Jackets are 14-4 at home this season.  They have pulled off outright upsets over the likes of Syracuse, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina at home this year.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites over Pitt is a gift here.

The Panthers are just 4-12 in ACC play this season.  They have only won two true road games all season, going 2-6 in them.  They simply don't have a lot to play for right now and won't be playing with a sense of urgency like the Yellow Jackets will be.

Georgia Tech is a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The Panthers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 Tuesday games.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are on fire right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Kansas on the road and Baylor at home during this stretch.  This is a team that is hitting on all cylinders right now and should be bigger home favorites over Oklahoma State tonight.

The Cyclones are in second place in the Big 12 right now, so they will be highly motivated to get that No. 2 seed.  Plus, it's Senior Night Tuesday, and this is a senior-laden squad.  In fact, six seniors play significant minutes for this team in Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie.

Oklahoma State is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers due to going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  But the Cowboys haven't played Kansas during this stretch, they lost at home to Baylor, and their only real quality win came against West Virginia on the road.

Iowa State has dominated this series, winning eight straight meetings with Oklahoma State while going 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cyclones won 96-86 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cyclones are 53-20 ATS in their last 73 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Cowboys are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +1.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are the gift that keeps on giving.  They are consistently undervalued by oddsmakers, and that has really been the case down the stretch.  Now they are home dogs to the Miami Hurricanes Monday when they should be the favorites.

All the Hokies have done is go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won four games outright with their only losses coming by 6 as 6.5-point dogs at Miami and by 4 as 13-point dogs at Louisville.  That also places the Hokies in revenge mode here after losing on the road to the Hurricanes on February 8th.

Miami is in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  The Hurricanes are coming off a huge upset home win over Duke on Saturday and clearly won't be as focused for this game now.  They will be up against a VA Tech team that is 14-1 at home this season.

Miami is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  VA Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  TheHurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +2

The Butler Bulldogs are primed for a letdown here Sunday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-66 upset road win as 10-point underdogs at Villanova.  They clearly won't be up for this game against Xavier like they were against Villanova.

Conversely, Xavier will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to end a four-game losing streak.  The Musketeers have fallen victim to a brutal schedule with a home game against Villanova, and road losses to Providence, Marquette and Seton Hall during this stretch.

The Musketeers will also be out for revenge from a 78-83 road loss at Butler on January 14th in their first meeting this season.  The Musketeers were also without leading scorer Trevon Blueitt for a few games during their losing streak, but he's back healthy.  And Xavier is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Butler.

Xavier is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 12-2 at home this season.  The Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  The Bulldogs are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats can pretty much lock up the Pac-12 title with a victory here Saturday at home against UCLA.  They would need to win this game and their next game at lowly Arizona State to win the Pac-12.  That has been their goal all season, and with it now within reach, I look for them to capitalize on it.

Arizona already dominated UCLA 96-85 on the road as 5-point underdogs int heir first meeting this season.  They were the more physical team in that game and outrebounded the Bruins 42-33.  They will have the edge in physicality again, and this time they'll have the support of their home fans.

That's important because Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are coming off a 13-point home win over USC.  They are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with UCLA.

UCLA is 2-8 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent this season.  The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UCLA is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

Quietly, the Iowa State Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won road games at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech, while dominating their only two home games during this stretch in a 16-point win over Oklahoma and a 13-point win over TCU.

As most of you should know, Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside Hilton Coliseum.  And now the Cyclones will be out for revenge from their heartbreaking 63-65 loss at Baylor in their first meeting this season on a last-second shot.

Baylor is clearly ripe for the picking right now as the Bears are blowing their shot at a No. 1 overall seed.  Indeed, the Bears are 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.  They lost at home to both Kansas and Kansas State, while also losing on the road to Texas Tech.  Even their 60-54 home win as 13-point favorites over Oklahoma last time out was lackluster.

Iowa State is a sensational 26-4 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 trips to Ames, Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oregon State/Cal CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +18

The Cal Golden Bears blew a 16-point lead against Oregon and lost 65-68 on a buzzer-beater by Dillon Brooks.  They were up 10 with four minutes left before committing a ton of turnovers down the stretch to blow it.  I think they'll suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Now the Golden Bears will have to try and get the motivation to face the worst team in the Pac-12 in the Oregon State Beavers just two days later after losing to Oregon on Wednesday.  They beat the Beavers 69-58 as 14-point road favorites on January 21st in their first meeting, and now they're being asked to lay a whopping 18 points in the rematch.

Oregon State has been way undervalued here of late and cashing tickets for bettors willing to back them.  The Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep catching huge numbers and covering, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as double-digit underdogs.

The Beavers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON ST) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, terrible team, winning 20% or less of their games on the season are 218-137 (61.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -4.5

The George Washington Colonials are showing great value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen tonight.  They have gone 5-4 in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming to the class of the Atlantic 10.

UMass is one of the worst teams in the conference at 3-11 SU & 3-11 ATS in Atlantic 10 play this season.  The Minutemen have gone 1-7 SU in their last eight games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.  I think they continue to be getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.

The Colonials are 10-3 at home this season, while the Minutemen are just 3-8 in true road games.  George Washington has dominated UMass in the last three meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while winning by 11, 22 and 8 points, respectively.

UMass is 0-6 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Minutemen are 0-10 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Colonials.  Take George Washington Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -3.5

I really like the short price we are getting here with the Arkansas Razorbacks, who at 20-7 on the season are likely on their way to the NCAA Tournament.  They are 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 12 points per game on the season.

The Razorbacks are putting up 84.4 points per game on 47.6% shooting at home this year.  They'll be up against a Texas A&M team that is just 2-6 in true road games, getting outscoring by nearly 8 points per game.  One of their road wins was against lowly LSU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The lone exception was when Arkansas went into Texas A&M and won 62-60 as 5-point underdogs on January 17th in their first meeting this season.

The Razorbacks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after a game where they made 57% or better from the field and allowed 43% or lower.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -4

Georgia Tech is right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Yellow Jackets have gone 14-3 at home this season with signature upsets over UNC, Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame and Syracuse.  Josh Pastner is doing as good of a job as anyone in his first season at Georgia Tech.

NC State is a dumpster fire right now.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Head coach Mark Godfried has been fired, but he's been allowed to finish out the season, which is almost unheard of.  The Wolfpack are a mess right now and can't be trusted.

Georgia Tech went on the road and beat NC State 86-76 as 9.5-point dogs in the first meeting this season.  Now they're only being asked to lay 4 points at home in the rematch, which I believe is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more this season.  The Wolfpack are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this season.  NC State is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* SC/Florida ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on South Carolina +9

The Florida Gators are being overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That has shown of late as they have failed to cover two of their last three.  They only beat Texas A&M by 9 as 11-point home favorites and Mississippi State by 5 as 10.5-point road favorites.

Conversely, South Carolina comes in undervalued due to losing two straight and going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Gamecocks are still one of the top teams in the SEC despite this recent slide, and they are certainly better than this 9-point spread would indicate.  Five of their seven losses this season have come by single-digits.

South Carolina beat Florida 57-53 at home earlier this season.  Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  The Gators are also 0-11 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less over the past three years.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +8

Penn State has been a quality home team this season at 9-5 SU & 7-4 ATS in lined games.  The Nittany Lions beat Maryland 70-64 as 3.5-point dogs in their last home games.  After back-to-back road games at Illinois and Nebraska, they'll be looking forward to playing at home tonight.

Penn State will also be out for revenge from a 52-77 loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  Now the Nittany Lions will be playing with a full week of rest having played last Tuesday on February 14th.  Meanwhile, Purdue just played on Saturday, getting only two days to prepare for the Nittany Lions.  That's a huge edge in rest and preparation for the home squad here.

The Boilermakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Penn State is 7-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Take Penn State Tuesday.

20* Iowa State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -1.5

Texas Tech is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and needs a strong finish to the regular season to get in.  That makes tonight's game against Iowa State a must-win for them.  I expect them to get the job done here.

Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall while playing some tremendous basketball along the way.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma by 8, lost by 1 at TCU as 3.5-point dogs, lost by 1 to Kansas as 4.5-point dogs, beat Baylor by 6 as 2.5-point dogs, and lost in OT at West Virginia as 10-point dogs.

As you can see, the Red Raiders have proven they can play with the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they'll be up against an Iowa State team that comes in overvalued due to three straight victories and four of their last five overall.  The Cyclones are just 4-5 in true road games this season, while the Red Raiders are 15-2 at home.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last two years.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 trips to Lubbock.  Bet Texas Tech Monday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -7.5

The Illinois State Redbirds are a legitimate bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament at 22-5 on the season.  They really can't afford another loss if they want to make the big dance, unless it comes in the conference championship game to Wichita State.

Illinois State just returned second-leading scorer Mikyle McIntosh (13.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) from a five-game absence due to a knee injury.  Having him healthy moving forward is going to be huge for them.  He and Deontae Hawkins (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) form the best frontcourt duo in the MVC.

Illinois State beat Loyola-Chicago 81-59 as 1-point road favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now the Redbirds get them at home, where they are 13-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.  The Ramblers have lost four of their last five coming in and I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive here.

The Redbirds are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Illinois State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games off an ATS loss.  Illinois State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Illinois State Sunday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have gone in a funk since upsetting Villanova at home on January 24th.  They have lost four of their last five games since, and now they are in jeopardy of falling on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament Bubble.  I think this is a 'rally the troops' type of game at home against Xavier on Saturday.

Xavier has some serious injury concerns right now.  The Musketeers have been without by Myles Davis and Edmond Sumner (15.0 ppg, 5.0 apg), and Trevon Bluiett (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) missed their last game, a 63-75 loss at Providence.  Sumner and Bluiett are their two leading scores, and they could be without both again Saturday.

Marquette is 11-3 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 14.4 points per game.  Xavier is just 3-6 in true road games with its only wins coming at Georgetown (by 5), St. Johns (by 5) and Creighton (by 2).  Keep in mind that Creighton didn't have its best player in Mo Watson Jr for that game.

Xavier is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS after playing a road game this season.   The Musketeers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +10

Like clockwork, the Michigan State Spartans are starting to play their best basketball of the season late in the year under Tom Izzo.  It happens every season, yet oddsmakers fail to adjust for it.

That has been the case again in 2017 as the Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they find themselves catching double-digits on the road against Purdue Saturday, which is simply too much.

Now the Spartans will be out for revenge from a 73-84 home loss to Purdue earlier this season.  That was a rare win for the Boilermakers in this series.  The Spartans are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Boilermakers.  It was the only time that Purdue has won by double-digits over this stretch.

Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  Michigan State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 Big Ten games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Purdue.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2

The Baylor Bears want revenge from a 68-73 loss as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks in their first meeting on February 1st.  I think they get their revenge just over two weeks later in blowout fashion at home this time around.

In that first meeting, the Bears dominated the boards by rebounding 40% of their own misses on the offensive end.  Baylor ranks 9th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, while Kansas ranks 214th in defensive rebounding.  That's a huge fundamental edge that the Bears are going to have once again in this rematch.

I don't think Kansas has much left in the tank right now.  It is going through arguably the toughest stretch that any team has played in the country.  Here is a look at the KenPom rantings of the teams they have played in their last eight games: @WVU (#4), @Kentucky (#7), Baylor (#8), Iowa State (#26), @K-State (#28), @Texas Tech (#37), WVU (#4), @ Baylor (#8).

Kansas' star trio of Devonte Graham, Frank Mason and Josh Jackson have been overworked.  Graham and Mason have played 262 of a possible 290 minutes in their past seven games, while Jackson has played 250.  And the Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot here after their huge 14-point comeback victory over West Virginia in the final minutes on Monday.  They have a two-game lead in the conference standings and don't need this game as much as Baylor does.

The Bears are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 17 points per game on average.  Kansas is 1-7 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games.  The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* VCU/Richmond ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Richmond +5.5

The Richmond Spiders want revenge from a 74-81 road loss at VCU as 10.5-point underdogs in their first meeting on February 1st.  Now they get their shot just two weeks later and will be ready to go at home this time around as 5.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Richmond hasn't lost any of its last six home meetings with VCU by more than 6 points, which is significant because the Rams have been good for a long time now.

Richmond is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Off a poor defensive performance against George Mason last time out, I look for the Spiders to clamp down defensively here tonight against the Rams.

VCU is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Spiders are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as home underdogs, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as dogs overall.  Bet Richmond Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco +21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are not only 26-0 SU on the season, but also 18-4 ATS in lined games.  The betting public has made a killing on them this season, and oddsmakers simply cannot allow them to continue to do so.

As a result, they will inflate Gonzaga lines going forward.  And this one is clearly inflated.  Plus, it's the ultimate letdown spot for the Zags as they are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-64 victory at St. Mary's on ESPN Saturday night.  They won't be able to get up for San Francisco tonight.

San Francisco is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Dons have gone 18-9 on the season and are one of the best teams in the WCC.  This is a team that has been a great bet on the road over the past several years as well.

San Francisco is 106-63 ATS in its last 169 conference road games.  The Dons are 8-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 following a double-digit home loss.  Take San Francisco Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut -3

After a disastrous start to the season, the UConn Huskies are starting to play up to their potential of late.  And now they'll want revenge from a 61-70 loss at Memphis back on January 5th in their first meeting of the season.

The Huskies have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Cincinnati.  They beat ECU at home, South Florida by 21 on the road, Tulane by 10 at home, South Florida by 46 at home and upset UCF by 3 as 4.5-point road dogs during this stretch.

Memphis has been blown out quite a bit here of late.  It is 3-3 in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by double-digits.  The only three victories came against ECU (by 7), South Florida (by 10) and Tulsa.  These are two teams going in opposite directions right now.

Memphis is 10-21 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  UConn is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Connecticut Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -2

The TCU Horned Frogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they are starting to play themselves on the right side of it after winning three of their last four games overall.  I look for them to continue their excellent play at home tonight against Oklahoma State.

TCU is 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game.  Two of the three losses have come to Kansas and Baylor, the two best teams in the Big 12.  The Horned Frogs will be out for revenge from a 76-89 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this season.

The Cowboys come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  TCU won outright as home dogs to Oklahoma State 63-56 and 70-55 in its last two home meetings.

TCU is 6-0 ATS in Wednesday home games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma State is 44-75 ATS in its last 119 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Cowboys are 13-37-3 ATS in their last 53 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -2

The Northwestern Wildcats are on a mission to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever.  A home win over Maryland Wednesday would go a long way in putting them on the right side of the bubble.

The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country at 19-6 on the season.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being undervalued by oddsmakers.  That includes a 66-59 win at Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs last time out.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to an easy schedule up to this point.  That is starting to show of late as the Terrapins have lost two of their last three coming in.  Now they'll be up against a Wildcats team that is 12-2 at home this season and winning by 14.7 points per game on average.

The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Wildcats are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up win.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -3

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are finally healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They just recently returned their best big man in third-leading scorer Ed Morrow (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who had 13 rebounds in a 69-70 (OT) home loss to Wisconsin in his return from injury in Nebraska's last contest.

That game was five days ago last Thursday, so they have had plenty of time to recover and get ready for Penn State.  Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions played on Saturday and have only had two days to get ready for the Huskers.  And I believe they come in overvalued due to back-to-back upset victories over Maryland and Illinois, which followed an ugly home loss to Rutgers.

Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four home meetings with Penn State as Big Ten opponents.  They have won those games by 14, 13, 14 and 12 points, or by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Look for this home domination to continue here Tuesday night.

Nebraska is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent.  The Cornhuskers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Nebraska Tuesday.

20* WVU/Kansas ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 69-85 road loss at West Virginia on January 24th just three weeks ago.  I fully expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home in a hostile atmosphere on ESPN's Big Monday.

The Jayhawks had won 54 straight home games prior to losing to Iowa State in their last home contest, which will have them focused to start a new streak as well.  They are 11-1 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 17.0 points per game.  Rarely will you ever find them at home as this small of favorites.

The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Mountaineers.  These games have rarely been close as all four wins came by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Given the importance of this game to the Jayhawks' streak of Big 12 championships, they'll be fully focused tonight to keep it going.

West Virginia is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games off two consecutive conference wins.  Bill Self is 14-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  He'll have the Jayhawks ready to roll tonight.  Bet Kansas Monday.

20* Michigan/Indiana CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 60-90 laugher at Michigan on January 26th just two weeks ago.  Now the Hoosiers get the Wolverines at home this time around, and they rarely lose at Assembly Hall.

The Hoosiers also recently returned their best player in James Blackmon.  He was actually hurt in that loss to Michigan and didn't play until a 64-69 home loss to Purdue last time out.  He should be much sharper in his second game back from injury, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward.

This is a bad spot for Michigan, which is coming off a huge win over rival Michigan State, setting it up for a letdown here.  Plus they already rolled the Hoosiers once this season so they probably just think they have to show up to win Sunday.  They'll be in for a surprise against an inspired Hoosiers team that wants it more.

The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Michigan is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan is 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% this season.  Bet Indiana Sunday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +9.5

The Oklahoma Sooners couldn't possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six straight while going 1-5 ATS in the process.  Now they are catching a big number at Iowa State Saturday, and I think it's simply too much.

The Sooners are going to be out for revenge from an 87-92 home loss to Iowa State in double-overtime.  The Sooners led that game by as many as 20 points in the first half, and as many as 6 in the first overtime, but blew it.  Now they want to avenge that defeat in a bad way.

Iowa State simply hasn't held the same kind of home-court advantage as it had in years' past.  The Cyclones haven't beaten anyone by more than 9 at home in Big 12 play this year.  They beat Texas Tech by 7, Texas by 9 and Kansas State by 5.  They also lost to Kansas by 4 and to West Virginia by 13 in their five Big 12 home games.

Oklahoma has only lost one Big 12 road game by more than 8 points this year, which was an 11-point loss at Kansas State as 11.5-point dogs.  The Sooners only lost by 3 at TCU, by 1 at Texas and by 8 at Texas Tech.  They also upset West Virginia by 2 as 16.5-point road dogs.

This has been a very closely-contested series.  Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and nine of the last 10 meetings as well.  In fact, Iowa State hasn't beaten Oklahoma by more than 7 points in any of the last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Sooners pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -6

Coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 57-86 setback at rival Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder today.  Look for them to try and wipe the bad taste out of their mouth against Iowa at home Saturday.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Spartans is the fact that they actually lost twice to Iowa last season.  But this Hawkeyes team is way down from that squad as they are relying on a ton of freshmen this year.  They aren't ready to win in a hostile atmosphere like East Lansing.

In fact, the Hawkeyes are 2-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in all road games this season.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in true road games with their only win coming at lowly Rutgers.  They are getting outscored by 11.1 points per game on the highway this season even when you factor in their 20-point win at Rutgers.

Tom Izzo is 37-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6 to 9 points as the coach of Michigan State.  The Hawkeyes are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up loss.  The Hawkeyes are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas +12

The Texas Longhorns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are 8-3 ATS in Big 12 play this season, yet they are underdogs in almost every game they play, and big road underdogs when on the highway.  That's the case again here against Oklahoma State as 12-point dogs.

Let's look at what they've done on the road this season.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, covered as 9.5-point dogs in a 9-point loss at Iowa State, lost by 10 at Baylor as 14-point dogs, lost by 12 at Kansas as 16-point dogs and only lost at Georgia by 2 as 5-point dogs.  Those results alone show they are more than capable of staying with Oklahoma State today.

I think this is a potential flat spot for the Cowboys.  They had their five-game winning streak come to an end in a tough 69-72 home loss to Baylor on Wednesday.  Now they have only two days to recover in time to get ready for Texas, while the Longhorns last played on Tuesday and will be the fresher squad.

Texas has won three straight meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Longhorns haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Cowboys by more than 11 points.  They beat the Cowboys 82-79 at home in their first meeting this season as 1-point dogs, and now they're catching 12 points on the road in the rematch, which is way too big of an adjustment.

Texas is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS as a road dog or PK over the last two years.  The Longhorns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are going to be out for revenge from a 67-71 loss at Penn State on January 28th just two weeks ago.  I look for them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around in the second meeting.

The Fighting Illini have beaten the likes of Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa at home this season all by 5 points or more, which are three better teams than Penn State.  Their three losses have come against Maryland, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which are three better teams than Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-64 home victory over nationally ranked Maryland.  But they have gone just 1-4 in Big Ten road games this season with their only win coming at Rutgers.

The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Fighting Illini are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -3.5

The Rhode Island Rams are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning all four games by 8 points or more.  Now they're ready to take down a team like Dayton here at home Friday night.

The Rams have a chance to move into a second-place tie with the Flyers in the Atlantic 10, just one game behind VCU for the conference lead.  That will have them motivated alone, plus they want revenge from a 64-67 loss at Dayton on January 6th in their first meeting this season.

I like the Rams' chances of getting that revenge at home, where they are 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game.  Four of Dayton's five losses have come on the road this season.  The Flyers will be playing their 3rd game in a week here.

Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Flyers.  Rhode Island is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Rhode Island Friday.

15* UNC/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2

The Duke Blue Devils haven't played up to their potential this season.  As a result, they are only laying 2 points at home to North Carolina Thursday.  Rarely ever will you find the Blue Devils as this short of home favorites any year, especially a year where they have as much talent as they do this season.

But I look for Duke to be a dangerous team going forward now that Coach K is back on the sidelines.  I think he'll get the most out of his players going forward after he called them out recently.  He doesn't need to give them any extra motivation tonight against the Tar Heels, though.

UNC doesn't deserve getting this much respect from oddsmakers with the way it is playing coming in.  The Tar Heels are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Miami as 6-point favorites, barely beat Pitt by 2 as 18.5-point home favorites, and failed to cover as 9-point home favorites in a 7-point win over Notre Dame.

UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Duke Thursday.

15* Stanford/Arizona Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -13.5

The Arizona Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They were embarrassed 58-85 at Oregon on Saturday to fall to 21-3 on the season.  You can bet that they'll be looking to get that bad taste out of their mouths with a blowout win at home over Stanford.

This is the same Stanford team that Arizona already beat 91-52 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their first meeting this year.  The Wildcats have now won 14 straight meetings with the Cardinal.  The last four have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  Expect more of the same tonight.

The Cardinal are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog.  Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Arizona Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -6.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites.  You can bet that Bob Huggins will have them ready to go here tonight after that defeat.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Mountaineers suffered their biggest upset loss this season when they fell 87-89 (OT) at home to Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road in the rematch.

That was the last win for the Sooners, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost at home to both Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch, while also getting blown out by 32 at home by Florida.  This team just doesn't have much to play for right now at all.

Plays on a favorite (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mountaineers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite.  The Sooners are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4

I expect a big effort from the Clemson Tigers at home here tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Florida State on Sunday.  They lost that game 61-109 and will certainly be looking to make amends.  The Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Meanwhile, Syracuse comes in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over Virginia by a final of 66-62 as 4.5-point underdogs in which they had a big comeback in the second half.  They are primed for a letdown off that victory.

Clemson is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Syracuse.  The Orange are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in all road games this season.  The Tigers are 8-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game on average.

Syracuse is 3-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  Clemson is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 after failing to cover six or seven of its last eight against the spread.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +6.5

The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and now they are being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road to Georgia Tuesday night.  We'll gladly fade them now.

This is an awful spot for the Gators.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 88-66 home victory over Kentucky on Saturday.  They are now in a letdown spot.  And having already beaten Georgia once this season, they won't be up for this game.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, come in highly motivated after playing well but losing their last two games on the road to Kentucky in OT as 15.5-point dogs and to South Carolina 75-77 as 8-point dogs.  They also want revenge from their 76-80 road loss to Florida on January 14th in their first meeting this season.

Georgia is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Georgia is 7-0 ATS versus teams who attempt 25 or more free throws per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia -6

The Virginia Cavaliers simply have the Louisville Cardinals' number.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  They won 61-53 on the road earlier this season, and 68-46 at home and 63-47 on the road in their two meetings last year.  These games haven't even been close.

I expect that to be the case again here tonight as the Cavaliers roll the Cardinals.  The Cardinals come in overvalued off three straight blowout wins over weak ACC competition in Boston College, NC State and Pitt.  But their run comes to an end here tonight.

The Cardinals were already without second-leading scorer Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg) due to injury.  But now they are going to also be without their third-leading scorer in Deng Adel (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and fifth-leading scorer Mangkok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), who have both been suspended for this contest.

Virginia will be hungry following an upset loss at Syracuse on Saturday.  The Cavaliers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Virginia Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5

I really love this spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They will be out for revenge from a 90-93 double-overtime loss to Nebraska on the road in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.

This is also a good spot for the Hawkeyes because they last played on Tuesday, getting four days to prepare for Nebraska.  The Huskers last played Michigan State in an 11-point home loss on Thursday, only getting two days off to prepare for the Hawkeyes.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have played two of their best games of the season coming in.  They beat Ohio State 85-72 as 1-point home favorites, and throttled Rutgers 83-63 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They won both those games without leading scorer Peter Jok, which helped them gel as a team.  Now Jok returns Sunday and the Hawkeyes will be a very dangerous team moving forward.

Iowa is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 home games off a road win.  The Hawkeyes are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Huskers, winning by 11, 11, 10 and 14 points, respectively.  Roll with Iowa Sunday.

25* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -1.5

The UCF Knights are one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic.  They opened the season 14-4, but then ran into a buzz saw of a schedule over the past couple weeks.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a result, and now they are way undervalued heading into this home matchup with Memphis Saturday.

Three of the losses came on the road against three of the better teams in the AAC in Memphis, Tulsa and Houston.  The other was a 60-65 home loss to SMU, which is the second-best team in the league.  And that was a rare home loss for the Knights.

Indeed, the Knights are 10-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Their defense has been superb at home, giving up just 56.6 points per game on 32.7% shooting.  Obviously the Knights are going to be out for revenge from their 65-70 road loss to the Tigers on January 22nd just two weeks ago, so I love their mindset coming in.

Memphis comes in overvalued due to winning five of its last six games overall.  But the Tigers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as they have consistently underachieved in terms of the spread.  And their last six games have come against South Florida (twice), ECU, Temple, UCF and Houston.  All five wins came by 10 points or less, too.

This is a great situation for the Knights in terms of rest as well.  They last played on Wednesday in a road loss to Houston.  The Tigers last played on Thursday in a road win at South Florida.  So the Tigers will only have had one day off to get ready for UCF, while the Knights will have had two days' rest.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for the home team here.

UCF is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3 points per game.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Memphis is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -1.5

The Air Force Falcons have been one of the most underrated teams in the Mountain West.  They have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 7 at Nevada as 12-point dogs, by 2 at UNLV as 4-point dogs, and by 9 at Fresno State as 9.5-point dogs.

Their one win came when they beat San Diego State by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Falcons have been a great bet at home all season, going 10-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their home lined games.  They are scoring 80.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting at home this year.

Wyoming is just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Falcons won 70-62 as 4.5-point home dogs last year and 73-50 as 1-point home favorites in 2015.  Home-court advantage is clearly huge for these two teams, and the Falcons basically just have to win the game to cover the spread here Saturday.

Air Force is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Air Force is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.   The Cowboys are 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

15* Xavier/Creighton FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Creighton -3.5

There's no question that the loss of Mo Watson Jr. hurt Creighton.  They did not play well in their first two games without him, but they have adjusted in a big way in their past two games, and oddsmakers are once again putting too much stock in his loss.

Creighton beat DePaul 83-66 as 15.5-point favorites eight days ago before upsetting Butler 76-67 on the road as 7-point underdogs on Tuesday.  Now the Bluejays have had three full days to get ready for Xavier, a team they already beat 72-67 as 3-point road dogs on January 16th in the game that Watson was injured in.  Creighton also beat Xavier 70-56 as 1-point home underdogs last season.

Xavier has just as big of injury issues of its own.  The Mountaineers are without their best player in Edmond Sumner, and they were already without Myles Davis.  Sumner averages 15.0 points, 5.0 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.  Not to mention leading scorer Trevon Bluiett (18.7 ppg) is battling a foot injury and is questionable.

In their first game without Sumner on Wednesday, the Musketeers were fortunate to escape with a 72-70 home victory over Seton Hall as 5-point favorites.  Xavier is just 2-5 in true road games this season, while Creighton is 11-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game.

Xavier is 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% this season.  Creighton is 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bluejays are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road meetings.  Take Creighton Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have some awful losses this season but also some incredible wins.  But most of those great wins came at home against CLemson, UNC, FSU and Notre Dame.  It has been a completely different story for them on the road this season.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  They have been getting outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game on the road this year.  They lost by 12 at Clemson on Wednesday, and I think their luck has run out here again against Wake Forest on the highway.

Wake Forest is 7-3 at home this season.  The three losses all came against great teams where they easily could have won.  They gave up a big late lead in a 68-73 loss to Clemson, only lost to UNC 87-93 as 8.5-point dogs, and lost on a last-second 3-pointer to Duke 83-85 as 6-point dogs.

This is clearly the best team that the Demon Deacons have had in a while, and they are winning by 12.1 points per game on average at home this year.  The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Central Michigan -2.5

Oddsmakers have really missed their mark tonight in this MAC showdown between Western Michigan and Central Michigan.  The Chippewas should be much bigger favorites, but we'll gladly take advantage of this huge line mistake.

This one is pretty simply.  Central Michigan is 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Western Michigan is 0-12 in all road games this year, getting outscored by 13.7 points per game on average.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Chippewas are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Central Michigan Friday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

The Stanford Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing back-to-back tough road games at Oregon and California.  They had won their previous three games coming in, including a 30-point home win over Washington State, a 9-point home win over Washington and a 16-point road win against Oregon State.

Now the Cardinal get to face one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in the Colorado Buffaloes, who are 2-7 in conference play.  They actually started 0-7 before beating lowly Oregon State by 7 at home and then upsetting Oregon 74-65 at home.

That win over Oregon sets the Buffaloes up for a massive letdown spot here.  They won't be able to get up for Stanford after beating the Ducks.  The Buffaloes are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The Cardinal are 7-3 at home this year.

The Buffaloes are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Colorado is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Stanford Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri +22

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after back-to-back blowout victories.  The Gators thumped LSU 106-71 and Oklahoma 84-52 on the road.  That followed up an ugly 66-68 home loss to Vanderbilt.

In fact, the Gators haven't fared well at home at all this season in conference play.  They are 1-3 ATS in conference home games with their only cover coming by a half-point in a 13-point win over Tennessee as 12.5-point favorites.  They only beat Ole Miss by 7 as 13-point favorites, Georgia by 4 as 12-point favorites, and lost to Vanderbilt by 2 as 11.5-point favorites.

The Gators are also in a serious look-ahead spot here and won't be able to give Missouri the kind of attention it's going to take to cover this massive 22-point spread.  They have Kentucky at home on deck Saturday, and they won't be able to help but look ahead to that huge contest against the favorite to win the SEC.

Missouri is 9-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  Florida is 6-15 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three years.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  Take Missouri Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing great value as 3.5-point home favorites over the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight.  The Razorbacks are undervalued off their blowout loss at Oklahoma State over the weekend, while Alabama is getting too much respect off its 9-point home win over Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  Arkansas has won 13 of its last 17 home meetings with Alabama.

Arkansas is 50-29 ATS in its last 79 home games off a road loss.  The Razorbacks are 15-4 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games as a dog of 6 points or less.  The Crimson Tide are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.  Alabama is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a straight up win.  Take Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State PK

The NC State Wolfpack beat Duke 84-82 on the road.  Then they had a letdown in a 60-85 road loss to Louisville, and that blowout defeat has them undervalued coming into this home game against Syracuse tonight.

The Wolfpack are 11-2 at home this season.  The Orange haven't won a road game all season, going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in all games played away from home.  They are getting outscored by 13.3 points per game in these road contests this season.

I think the Orange come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers at home over Wake Forest and Florida State.  But they haven't even been competitive in their four ACC road games, losing by 15 at Boston College, by 10 at VA Tech, by 17 at North Carolina and by 18 at Notre Dame.

The Orange are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Syracuse is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  NC State is 24-10-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -2.5

The Ball State Cardinals are one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall, yet they aren't getting the kind of respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Three of those five wins came by double-digits with their only loss coming at Bowling Green by 5 points.

Toledo is just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  There have been some ugly performances along the way.  They lost by 16 at Western Michigan as 4.5-point favorites, by 8 at Central Michigan as 2.5-point favorites and by 24 at Kent State as a pick 'em in three of their four road games during this stretch.

Ball State is 8-3 at home this season, while Toledo is just 2-6 in true road games this year.  Ball State is 13-6 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Toledo.  The Cardinals beat the Rockets 87-69 as 2-point home underdogs last season.

Toledo is 0-6 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Toledo is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road meetings with the Cardinals.  Take Ball State Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -6.5

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Georgetown as 8.5-point favorites on Saturday.  And if that's not enough, the Bulldogs will also be out for revenge from a 64-75 loss at Creighton earlier this season in their first meeting.

But this isn't the same Creighton team they saw in that meeting.  The Bluejays are now without their best player in Mo Watson Jr. who accounted for nearly 38% of their offense between his points and assists at the time of his injury.  It's safe to say the Bluejays haven't been the same without him.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 1-2 in their three games since Watson went down.  They were upset at home by Marquette 94-102 as 6-point favorites.  They lost 51-71 at Georgetown as 1.5-point favorites.  Then they did beat Depaul 83-66 as 16-point home favorites on Saturday, but the Blue Demons are the worst team in the Big East.

That home loss to Georgetown was a rare one for the Bulldogs, who are 11-1 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season.  Butler beat Creighton 88-75 at home last season as 5.5-point favorites.  This is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Butler is 7-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these games by 16.7 points per game on average.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Butler is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* Duke/Notre Dame ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +1.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against the Duke Blue Devils.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in to drop to 17-5 on the season.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.

After all, the Fighting Irish seem to get up for the Blue Devils every time they get the opportunity to face them.  And surprisingly, they have had a ton of success in this series here of late.  The Fighting Irish have won three straight and five of the last six meetings.

The Blue Devils are not playing well at all here of late as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, consistently being overvalued.  They were fortunate to escape with an 85-83 win at Wake Forest over the weekend after getting upset 82-84 at home by NC State as 16.5-point favorites.

Notre Dame is 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Duke is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Notre Dame Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +24.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are primed for a letdown here against the South Florida Bulls, which will make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 24.5-point spread today.  We'll gladly fade them and take all the points we can get here.

Cincinnati put a lot into its 86-78 home win over Xavier on Thursday.  The Bearcats had lost their three previous meetings with the Musketeers, who are their biggest rivals.  They really wanted that game against their crosstown rivals, and they had a huge second half to get it.  Now they'll fall flat here just a few days later.

No question South Florida is not very good at 6-13 this season, but it hasn't been losing by these kinds of margins this season.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost a game by more than 22 points this year.  That fact alone shows that there is value in this 24.5-point spread.

USF is 7-0 ATS in road games off two consecutive losses by 10 or more to conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two years.  USF is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Bulls.  Take South Florida Sunday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -2

Expect a big effort Sunday from the Michigan State Spartans, who are highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses coming in.  They have had four days off since last playing on Tuesday and will be ready to go tonight.

The Michigan Wolverines are getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.  They are coming off a 30-point home win over a depleted Indiana team on Thursday, giving them just two days off to get ready for the Spartans.  They're at a big disadvantage here in rest, preparation and motivation when compared to Michigan State.

The Spartans have won 14 of their last 16 home meetings with the Wolverines.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.

The Wolverines are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan State is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been a hard-luck team here of late.  They have lost four in a row with the last three coming by 2, 2 and 6 points.  Three of those four came on the road, too.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday to get back on track, especially with a ranked team in Maryland coming to town.

The Gophers have been a great home team, going 12-2 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Their two home losses both came in overtime to Michigan State (74-75) and Wisconsin (76-78).  That's how close they are to being 14-0 at home this year.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.  Oddsmakers tend to agree here in setting the Gophers as 4-point favorites despite the fact that the Terrapins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I think their luck runs out here Saturday.

Minnesota beat Maryland 68-63 as 10-point home underdogs last season.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +7.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  After upsetting Creighton 102-94 on the road, the Golden Eagles came back home and upset No. 1 Villanova 74-72 on Tuesday.  They erased a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the Wildcats.

The crowd stormed the floor after the win, and the players were seen standing on the scoring table and dancing.  It was a monumental win for the program, and now it's simply human nature that they won't be able to come back with a very good effort here Saturday against Providence.

Adding to the value is the fact that Providence was upset 86-91 at home by St. John's on Wednesday as 7-point favorites.  But that was a rare bad effort of late for the Friars.  They were 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with only a 10-point loss at 16-point dogs at Villanova, an 18-point win as 6.5-point dogs at Georgetown and a 4-point home win over Seton Hall as 1.5-point dogs.

Providence is also going to be out for revenge in this game after losing both meetings last year in heartbreaking fashion.  Marquette won 96-91 in overtime at home and 65-64 on the road in the two meetings.  I think there's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Friars pull off the upset given the situation.

The Friars are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Golden Eagles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas State +1

The Tennessee Vols are in a prime letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 82-80 victory as 10.5-point home dogs over the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday.  There's no question they won't be able to come back with a very good effort after that huge victory.

Tennessee hasn't exactly protected its home court very well at all coming into that game.  The Vols actually lost three straight home games to Gonzaga, Arkansas and South Carolina with two of those coming by double-digits before winning their last two home games against Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Kansas State is 15-5 this season and coming off a painful 65-70 loss at Iowa State on Tuesday in which it came way back and took the lead, only to fail to close it out in the final few minutes.  The Wildcats' five losses this season have come at Maryland (by 1), at Kansas (by 2),  at Texas Tech (by 1), vs Baylor (by 9) and at Iowa State (by 5).  They are clearly battle-tested and could be even better than 15-5 had they been able to pull out a few of those close games.

The Volunteers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +15.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 85-69 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday.  Now they'll have a hard time getting up to play the Texas A&M Aggies here as they step out of conference.

Texas A&M has played a ton of close games here of late.  Each of their last six games were decided by 11 points or fewer outside of a 92-62 beat down of LSU at home.  Their last three games were all decided by 4 points or fewer.  I think this one will come right down to the wire as well.

It's not like West Virginia is deserving of being this big of a favorite with the way it was playing coming into the Kansas game.  The Mountaineers were upset at Kansas State and at home against Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites. They only beat Texas by 2 as 11-point favorites, and were upset at Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  West Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.  The Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -3.5

The Michigan Wolverines are 11-2 at home this season.  I really like them laying this short price to the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night as I expect a big effort out of them.  They are still looking for a signature win in conference play, and this would be it.

Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in all games away from home this year.  They are 1-2 straight up in true road games with their only victory coming 78-75 at Penn State as 3-point favorites.  This is a team that lost earlier this season on the road to Fort Wayne.

Indiana is 3-11 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 2-13 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 50-28 ATS in their last 78 January home games.  The Hoosiers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.  The Wolverines are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 Thursday games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rice -3

The Rice Owls are 8-3 at home this season.  Two of their home losses came against two of the best teams in Conference USA in UAB and Middle Tennessee.  I think they'll handle Old Dominion at home here tonight.

Old Dominion is not playing well coming in, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. yet it continues getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  The Monarchs barely beat lowly Southern Miss by 4 at home as 13-point favorites, lost at home to LA Tech by 12 as 1-point favorites, and lost at Charlotte 72-74 as 2.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion has some injury and suspension issues right now.  Brandan Stith (11.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg), who leads the team in rebounding and blocks, missed the last game with an ankle injury.  He is expected to return for this game, though he won't be near 100%.  Also, Jordan Baker (7.6 ppg), who leads the team with 24 steals, has been suspended for this game.

Plays against any team (OLD DOMINION) - a horrible offensive team (63 PPG or less) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is also a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 56-62 at Old Dominion in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +16

The Boston College Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the ACC.  All they do is cover, yet they get no respect from oddsmakers.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall while playing some very good teams tough along the way.

That includes upset home wins over Providence (79-67) as 10-point dogs, Syracuse (96-81) as 10.5-point dogs and NC State (74-66) as 5.5-point dogs.  The Eagles have also covered in road losses to Wake Forest (66-79) as 15-point dogs and Duke (82-93) as 26-point dogs.  Then last time out they only lost at home to UNC (82-90) as 19-point dogs.

Miami has been one of the most overrated teams in the ACC.  The Hurricanes are just 4-12 ATS in their 16 lined games this season.  They are coming off a 58-70 road loss at Duke as 10-point dogs and will certainly have a hard time getting up to play Boston College after playing one of the best teams in the country.

The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston College is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hurricanes are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on La Salle -8.5

Look for an inspired effort tonight from the La Salle Explorers off their worst loss of the season, a 52-90 road loss to VCU.  That poor showing came out of nowhere because they had been playing their best basketball of the season coming into that contest.

Indeed, La Salle was 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five games.  The Explorers had beaten Saint Louis by 21, Duquesne by 7, George Washington by 10 and Davidson by 8 at home.  They had also gone on the road and upset Rhode Island by 12 as 12-point dogs.

Pennsylvania is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or more.  They lost by 9 at Princeton as 8.5-point dogs, by 8 at home to Yale as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to Brown as 9.5-point favorites, and by 7 to St. Joe's on a neutral court as 2.5-point dogs.

La Salle has won eight of its last nine meetings with Pennsylvania with each of the last four victories coming by double-digits.  The Explorers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Quakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Explorers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their last game by 20-plus points at the half.  Take La Salle Wednesday.

15* Kansas/WVU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated to get a win at home tonight against the Kansas Jayhawks on National TV.  Look for a big effort from them, especially after those consecutive losses.

The Jayhawks have played a very weak schedule thus far in Big 12 play, avoiding both Baylor and WVU to this point.  The only three road games in conference play the Jayhawks have faced were a 6-point win at TCU, an 11-point win at Oklahoma and a 4-point win at Iowa State.  They will suffer their first loss of conference season here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 straight up in the last seven meetings.  West Virginia has won each of its last three home meetings with the Jayhawks, including a 74-63 victory as 1-point dogs last year.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in Tuesday home games over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 2-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing each of their last two games in narrow fashion on the road to Ohio State by 5 and Indiana by 7.  Look for a big effort from Sparty tonight at home to try and get back in the win dolumn.

The Spartans have certainly been taking care of business at home in conference play.  They beat Northwestern by 9 as 2.5-point favorites, Rutgers by 28 as 13-point favorites and Minnesota by 18 as 3.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first three Big Ten home games by a combined 36 points.

Purdue hasn't exactly played great in its first two Big Ten road games.  It only won 76-75 at Ohio State as 3-point favorites, then was upset 78-83 at lowly Iowa as 6-point favorites.  Michigan State has won 12 of its last 15 home meetings with Purdue.

The Spartans have owned this series, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The only loss came last season 81-82 in overtime at Purdue.  The Spartans are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. points.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns are playing very well of late and continue flying under the radar.  It hasn't shown up in the win-loss column, but the fact that they are being competitive against the best teams in the Big 12 shows what they are capable of.

The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, beat Oklahoma State 82-79 as 1-point home dogs, only lost by 9 as 9.5-point dogs at Iowa State, only lost by 3 at home to TCU and by 1 at home to West Virginia as 11.5-point dogs, and covered in a 10-point loss at Baylor as 14-point dogs and in a 12-point loss at Kansas as 16-point dogs.

Oklahoma is also playing better right now, but I don't like this spot for the Sooners.  They played a double-overtime game on Saturday against Iowa State and lost 87-92 at home.  Now they must play just two days later and will certainly still be feeling the effects of that grueling defeat.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Sooners are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Texas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Sooners are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 road meetings.  Roll with Texas Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1-point home favorites over the Northwestern Wildcats Sunday.  I'll gladly back them at this price in a game they essentially just have to win to cover.

The Buckeyes are 10-2 at home this season.  One of the losses was a 75-76 loss to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.  The Buckeyes just beat Michigan State 72-67 at home before going on the road and winning at Nebraska.

Ohio State has had Northwestern's number to say the least.  The Buckeyes are 29-2 in their last 31 meetings with the Wildcats, including a perfect 15-0 in their last 15 home meetings.  Again, they just have to win the game today to cover.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* Miami/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -9

I'm anticipating the best effort of the season from Duke here Saturday.  The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back road losses against two of the top teams in the ACC in Florida State and Louisville.  They have now had a full week to fix their issues and get ready for Miami having last played last Saturday.

The Miami Hurricanes haven't shown me anything that would make be believe that they can even be competitive in this game Saturday.  They are 1-3 in their last four games overall, losing by 15 at Syracuse, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 17 at Wake Forest.  None of those three teams are as good as Duke.

And Miami is at a huge disadvantage getting just two days to prepare for Duke.  The Hurricanes played Wake Forest on Wednesday.  Adding to the Blue Devils' motivation is the fact that they've actually lost each of their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, who aren't nearly as strong this year as they were the past two seasons.

Duke is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 9-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points per game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -1

Northern Illinois has been consistently undervalued at home over the past few seasons.  Time and time again they are short home favorites, and the Huskies keep delivering for backers.  They are 8-2 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by 11.1 points per game on average.

The Huskies come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at Miami Ohio.  Despite this fact, the Huskies continue to lack respect from oddsmakers here today.

Ohio just lost its best player in Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) to a season-ending foot injury.  The results without him have not been good.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan 49-53 as 7-point favorites, then proceeded to fall at Akron 68-83 as 6-point dogs.  They are clearly lost without Campbell.

The Huskies are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The Bobcats are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Northern Illinois is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons, coming back to win by nearly 20 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on James Madison +8

James Madison is playing well having gone 5-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.  They suffered a 10-point road loss at Northeastern as 8-point dogs, a 51-53 loss to College of Charleston as 4.5-point home dogs, and a 72-73 loss at William & Mary as 7-point dogs in their three defeats, so they've been competitive in every game.

As you can see, this will be the second meeting between James Madison and College of Charleston this season.  I love taking the team in revenge mode, especially when they are catching a bunch of points on the road.  And after losing by just 2 to College of Charleston in the first meeting, I think there's a ton of value with James Madison at +8 in the rematch.

I think this is an awful spot for College of Charleston, which is coming off a 59-65 home loss to the best team in the conference in UNC-Wilmington as 3.5-point dogs.  Off that deflating loss, I look for them to suffer a hangover here, especially considering they won't be able to get up for a James Madison team that they've already beaten once this year.

The recent head-to-head history also favors James Madison, which is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and Charleston hasn't beaten James Madison by more than 3 points in any of those six meetings.

James Madison is 22-11 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  Charleston is 16-36-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Cougars are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 Saturday games.  The Dukes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take James Madison Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -3

The Florida State Seminoles are 17-2 on the season, including a perfect 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game on the season.  They have home wins over Florida (by 5), Wake Forest (by 16), VA Tech (by 15), Duke (by 16) and Notre Dame (by 3) recently.

Louisville is having a superb season as well, going 16-3 straight up and 12-5 ATS on the year.  But the Cardinals were dealt a big blow when they lost starting PG Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg) for 2-3 weeks with a hip injury.

The Cardinals were able to overcome his injury for a game and thump Clemson 92-60 at home, but now they will be playing just their 4th true road game of the season.  The other three weren't impressive at all as they only won by 9 at Grand Canyon, lost by 7 at Notre Dame and beat lowly Georgia Tech by 15.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Louisville is 2-9 ATS in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -2.5

It has been like night and day for the Iowa Hawkeyes home and away.  They have been terrible on the road, but dominant at home this season.  The Hawkeyes have won seven straight home games coming into this contest against Maryland.

The Hawkeyes are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play, beating Michigan 86-83 as 2.5-point dogs, Rutgers 68-62 and Purdue 83-78 as 6-point dogs.  They also topped Iowa State 78-64 as 6-point dogs as part of this seven-game home winning streak.

I think Maryland comes in overvalued due to its 16-2 record this season where it has done most of its damage at home.  And the Terrapins have won three straight by 7 points or fewer coming in, and I think their luck runs out tonight in Iowa City in these close games.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  They beat Maryland 71-55 in their last home meeting.  Bet Iowa Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Loyola back on January 1st.  In fact, the Panthers have lost three straight in this series, so they'll be playing with triple revenge here.  Look for them to get that revenge at home tonight.

The Panthers are undervalued right now after going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS during a stretch that dated back to a loss to Iowa.  They finally broke the streak with a 79-60 win at Drake last time out, and now they have their best player back healthy in Jeremy Morgan (16.9 ppg), who returned for the Drake game and scored 21 points.

Conversely, Loyola comes in overvalued after going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  But the Ramblers have not fared well at UNI, going 1-4 straight up in their last five road meetings in this series.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  Northern Iowa is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.  The Panthers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 22-7 ATS off a conference win over the last three years.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +17

The Oklahoma Sooners are as undervalued as they'll be all season right now.  That's because they lost seven straight games before finally ending that streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  But the Sooners are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here despite going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The biggest reason for the Sooners' struggles was that Jordan Woodard was injured and missed several games.  But he's back healthy now as he returned in a 70-81 loss to Kansas as 12-point dogs prior to the Texas Tech win.  This team will be a tough out moving forward with Woodard back.

West Virginia is as overvalued as it is going to be at any point this season due to its 15-2 start to the season.  That was evident last time out as the Mountaineers barely survived in a 74-72 win at lowly Texas as 11.5-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points to the Sooners tonight.  They're going to have to play a perfect game to cover this massive number.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -5.5

The Florida State Seminoles are a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.  They have been crushing opponents at home in ACC play, beating Wake Forest by 16, Virginia Tech by 15 and Duke by 16.

I believe Notre Dame comes into this game overvalued due to having won seven straight while covering each of the last four against the spread.  But the Fighting Irish's luck will run out here against an FSU team that is a legitimate contender to win the ACC this year.

The Seminoles beat the Fighting Irish 77-56 at home last season as 3-point underdogs.  They have actually won three of their last four meetings in this series.  This will be the toughest road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, who have been fortunate to escape with three close road wins by 5 points or less in ACC play.

Florida State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 11-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  Roll with Florida State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have been dominant at home this year, going 10-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in lined games while winning by an average of 27.6 points per game.  They beat Rutgers by 20 and Ohio State by 23 in their first two conference home games.

The Michigan Wolverines have been an overvalued commodity this season, especially of late.  They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two conferences wins came at home, and both were close as they only beat Penn State 72-69 as 11.5-point favorites, and Nebraska 91-85 as 8.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines lost to Maryland by 7 at home, and both Iowa and Illinois (by 16) on the road.  They are now 0-4 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Wolverines have been outrebounded by 40 boards in Big Ten play.  Wisconsin outrebounds its opponents by an average of 11 boards per game.  That is going to be where this game is won and covered as the Badgers kill Michigan on the glass in this one.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams who make 77% or more of their free throw attempts.  Michigan is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Badgers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -5

Akron is probably the best team in the MAC this season.  The Zips are off to a 14-3 start this year, including a perfect 4-0 in conference play.  They have won seven straight games coming in to this showdown with rival Ohio.

The Bobcats are at a big disadvantage here.  Leading scorer and rebound Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) suffered a foot injury on Saturday against Eastern Michigan.  He played just 3 minutes before exiting, and the Bobcats went on to get upset 49-53 as 7-point home favorites.  Campbell is doubtful to return tonight.

Akron is 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.  The Zips are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, winning by 15 at home, 12 on the road and 12 at home.  I expect another double-digit blowout victory for the Zips tonight.

Akron is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  THe Zips are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Akron is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Take Akron Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +14

No team has played Villanova tougher than Seton Hall over the past few seasons.  Last year, all three meetings between these teams were decided by 9 points or less.  The Pirates lost by 9 as 15-point road dogs, lost by 1 as 7-point home dogs and upset the Wildcats by 2 as 6-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Seton Hall brought back four starters from that team and his playing well again this season.  The Pirates are 12-5 this season with all five of their losses coming by 14 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer.  Off back-to-back tough road losses to Marquette (by 3) and Providence (by 4), the Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory here.

I think Villanova comes in overvalued off three straight wins by 12 points or more against Marquette, Xavier and St. John's.  The Wildcats aren't going to be able to consistently cover these inflated spreads as the oddsmakers know the betting public is going to be quick to back the national champs moving forward.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two years.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS after 15-plus games against teams that win 80% or more of their games.  The Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Seton Hall Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 75-63 upset home win as 10-point dogs to Clemson.  We saw what happened the last time the Yellow Jackets pulled off a 75-63 upset at home over UNC.  They proceeded to get blown out 57-110 at Duke in their next game.

The Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the road this season.  They haven't even been competitive away from home as they are getting outscored by 20.0 points per game on the highway.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout here.

NC State comes in hungry for a win after two straight road losses at UNC and Boston College.  I like the Wolfpack's chances of bouncing back here considering they are 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game.  In their only ACC home game, they destroyed Virginia Tech 104-78.

Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  NC State is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with NC State Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 9-1 at home this season.  They are 2-0 at home in Big Ten play with a 75-70 win over Ohio State and an 85-69 win over Michigan.  They also beat NC State 88-74 at home earlier this season.  It's clear that they are taking advantage of their home floor this year, and this is a short price as a result.

Maryland is coming off a huge 75-72 home win over Indiana as 1.5-point dogs.  The Terrapins have only played two true road games this year.  They erased a double-digit deficit late to beat Georgetown 76-75, and also topped Michigan 77-70.  I think this will be their toughest road test of the season here, and they are in line to suffer their first loss.

There's no question that the Fighting Illini will be the more motivated team here to avenge their 84-59 road loss to the Terrapins on December 27th in their season opener.  Conversely, the Terrapins probably feel like they just have to show up to win here after winning that game by 25, and it's going to work against them.

Illinois is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +3

The Utah Utes are now healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five of their last six games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  Their only loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.4 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (12.1 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has missed two.  But they have had their full compliment of players for a few games now and the results have shown that they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12.

I've been riding UCLA a lot this season, but not lately because they've been overvalued, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I believe them to be overvalued here after their 104-89 win at Colorado on Thursday as 5-point favorites.

That makes this a very tough spot for the Bruins, who will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  With all the traveling they've had to do, they have had little time to prepare for Utah.  Meanwhile, the Utes beat USC 86-64 at home on Thursday and now get to stay at home here.  Without the travel, they'll be by far the more prepared team for this matchup.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is 9-1 at home this season and winning by 22.4 points per game.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  UCLA is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road favorite.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 13-3 this season and have been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with recent wins over Syracuse 83-73 as 3-point favorites and Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame has only played two true road games this season.  The Fighting Irish are 2-0 in them, but they came by a combined 6 points at Miami 67-62 and at Pitt 78-77 in overtime.  This will easily be their toughest road test of the season, and I look for them to struggle in this hostile atmosphere.

Virginia Tech nearly beat Notre Dame as 12.5-point road dogs last year in their lone meeting.  The Hokies only lost that game by a final of 81-83.  And there's no question the Hokies are better this season and a legit contender in the ACC.  Look for them to prove that in this game.

The Hokies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +6

The Iowa Hawkeyes want revenge from a 67-89 loss at Purdue to open conference play this season.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will now get a shot at the Boilermakers only two weeks later.  I look for them to take advantage and keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Hawkeyes have played well since that defeat.  They beat Michigan 86-83 in overtime at home, only lost 90-93 in double-overtime at Nebraska in a game they should have won, and then beat Rutgers 68-62 at home last time out.  Iowa has now won six straight home games, which includes a 78-64 victory over Iowa State as well.

This is clearly a letdown spot for Purdue.  The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 66-55 victory over Wisconsin, which was the favorite to win the conference coming into the season.  This will only be the third true road game for the Boilermakers this season.  They lost 64-71 at Louisville and barely beat Ohio State 76-75.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa City.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah -5

The Utah Utes have gotten healthy and are now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four of their last five games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  The lone loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.6 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (11.9 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has missed two.  But they have their full compliment of players now moving forward.

The USC Trojans got off to a 14-0 start this season against a very weak schedule, but they've since lost two of their last three.  They lost 61-84 at Oregon and 73-74 at home to California with their lone victory coming at home against lowly Stanford.  Their true colors are starting to show as they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Utes are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Trojans.  Each of the last six victories have come by at least 8 points and by an average of 16.2 points per game.  This appears to be a very short price given the series history.

Utah is 8-1 at home this season, and 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  I think this is a very short number here and we'll take advantage.

That's especially the case considering the Cowboys will be motivated for a victory after losing two straight and three of their last four coming in.  The last two were both true road games at UNLV and Fresno State, while the other was a tough 92-94 loss to a very good USC team on a neutral court.

Conversely, Utah State comes in off two straight home victories over UNLV and New Mexico.  But the Aggies have only played three true road games this season.  They lost 73-78 at Air Force, and barely beat Utah Valley State 80-79 in their last two.  This will be by far their toughest road test of the season here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wyoming is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Utah State, winning by 19, 23, 17 and 6 points, respectively.

Utah State is 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Wyoming is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better over the last three years.  The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -5.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles don't have to wait long for revenge.  They just lost 66-69 at Seton Hall on January 1st, and now they face the Pirates again 10 days later at home this time around.  I look for them to get their revenge in blowout fashion.

After opening the Big East campaign with a 76-66 win over Georgetown, the Golden Eagles have lost two straight tough road games and Seton Hall and Villanova.  But now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game.

Seton Hall has only played two true road games all season.  One was a win over a down Iowa team, while the other resulted in a 14-point loss at Creighton.  The Pirates are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Duke/Florida State ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 15-1 this season with wins over the likes of Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest and VA Tech at home, and Virginia on the road.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC.

Duke continues to be overvalued.  It has gone just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Blue Devils have only played two true road games this season, winning at UNLV but losing 75-89 at Virginia Tech despite being 4.5-point favorites.  And they only won by 11 as 26-point favorites over Boston College last time out.

Injuries have played a part in Duke's struggles, and it will be without another key player tonight.  Amile Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been their best interior player all season, and he is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.  Look for the Seminoles to take advantage.  They are 11-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and will feed off their rowdy home crowd tonight.

Duke is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -3.5

Off back-to-back tough road losses at NC State and Florida State, look for the Virginia Tech Hokies to come back highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight against Syracuse.  I think they come in undervalued after their first losing streak of the season.

Syracuse is starting to get some love from oddsmakers now after winning and covering back-to-back home games against Miami by 15 and Pittsburgh by 11.  But keep in mind that the Orange are 0-2 in true road games with blowout losses to Wisconsin by 17 as 6-point dogs and to Boston College by 15 as 10.5-point favorites.

Also keep in mind that Virginia Tech is 9-0 at home this season and winning by 19.7 points per game on average.  That includes a win over Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs in their ACC home opener just a week and a half ago.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant win here as well.

Virginia Tech is 15-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -3

The Purdue Boilermakers are on a mission to win the Big Ten this season.  Almost everyone picked Wisconsin prior to the season, so they know that they need to knock off the Badgers here.  That's especially the case after suffering an upset loss to Minnesota a couple games back.

Purdue has a tremendous home-court advantage, and it owned Wisconsin in both meetings last season.  The Boilermakers won 91-80 as 6-point home favorites and 61-55 as 5-point road favorites in their two meetings last year.  I think they win this game as well for their 3rd in a row in the series.

Purdue is 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game this season.  Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with Purdue Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +15

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are a senior-laden team that has won four straight, including each of their first two Pac-12 games with a 79-74 win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a 75-62 home victory over Oregon State as 4-point favorites.

I think Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to winning 12 straight, including three straight to open conference play with victories over UCLA and USC at home, as well as Washington on the road.  It's time to fade them now that they are laying a whopping 15 points on the road to the Cougars here.

Washington is a common opponent.  The Cougars beat the Huskies 79-74 on the road, while the Ducks beat them 83-61 on the road.  But that was a close game against Washington until Tyler Dorsey caught fire late in the second half to pull away.  He made 8-of-12 3-pointers for the game with almost all of them coming in the second half.  It was a 22-point win, but that game was much closer than that.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Washington State upset Oregon 108-99 in its last home meeting with the Ducks.  The Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  The Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +11

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued right now due to their 14-0 start to the season that has them sitting as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  We saw evidence of that last time out as the Bears needed a game-winner late to beat Iowa State 65-63 at home as 8.5-point favorites.

The Bears are feeling fat and happy and ripe for an upset right now.  Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference after starting 0-2 with a home loss to West Virginia, and a tough 79-82 road loss at Texas.

But we've seen earlier what the Cowboys are capable of on the road.  They've blown out Georgetown 97-70 on a neutral court, won 93-76 at Wichita State as 7.5-point dogs, and only lost 70-71 at Maryland.  They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 11 points of Baylor here.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a home win against a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma +11

The Oklahoma Sooners are way undervalued right now.  They have lost five straight coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But four of those five losses came by 5 points or less with the lone exception being a blowout loss to unbeaten Baylor, one of the top teams in the country.

Oklahoma was just catching 11 points at TCU and only lost 57-60.  But the Sooners have been without PG Jordan Woodard in recent games, and he's doubtful again tonight.  The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for his absence, and the Sooners are starting to get used to playing without him.

I think this is a tremendous spot to fade Kansas State, which is coming off its biggest game of the season in an 88-90 road loss to rival Kansas.  I look for the Wildcats to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to come out flat today against the Sooners.  They won't have the kind of focus and intensity it's going to take to put the Sooners away by double-digits.  Oklahoma will be the more motivated team looking to end this 5-game skid.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Sooners are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 91-82 upset road win at Purdue as 14-point dogs.  This is clearly a huge letdown spot for them now, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight at Northwestern.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 52-61 road loss to Michigan State last time out.  That came after an 87-77 win at Penn State in their conference opener.  The Wildcats will be hungry to get back in the win column here and to win their conference home opener tonight.

Both of these teams are improved this season, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats destroyed the Golden Gophers in their two meetings last year.  They won 77-52 as 2.5-point road favorites and 82-58 as 8-point home favorites.  They have now won five of the last six meetings in this series while going 5-1 ATS in the process.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Golden Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Northwestern Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -3.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most improved teams in the country under Dan D'Antoni, Mike D'Antoni's brother, this season.  They have gone 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season, time and time again beting undervalued by oddsmakers.

Some of their losses have actually been more impressive than their wins.  They went into Cincinnati and forced overtime as 20.5-point dogs, only losing 91-93.  They went into Pitt as 12.5-point dogs and only lost 106-112.  Despite those back-to-back losses in late December, they didn't suffer any hangover as they went on to beat FIU 94-70 as 4-point road favorites and FAU 89-72 as 6.5-point favorites in their last two contests.

Marshall has a better team than last year, yet it swept Old Dominion in the season series last season.  The Thundering Herd won 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs, then came back and stomped the Monarchs 82-65 as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  I think another blowout can be expected here.

Marshall is 10-1 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Thundering Herd are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Marshall Thursday.