|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-29-11||Duke +7.5 v. Ohio State||Top||63-85||Loss||-102||9 h 45 m||Show|
25* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke +7.5
Any time you can get Duke as an underdog, let alone a dog of 7.5 points or more, it's certainly worth pulling the trigger. Ohio State is clearly one of the best teams in the country, but they should not be this heavily favored Tuesday night in the ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge.
The Buckeyes are 6-0, but they only ranked team they have faced was then-No. 7 Florida, who they beat 81-74. Meanwhile, Duke (7-0) is coming off wins over No. 15 Michigan (82-65) and No. 14 Kansas (68-61) en route to the Maui Invitational title last week.
Duke spreads its scoring around. In fact, five players - Seth Curry (15.1 PPG), Ryan Kelly (14.6 PPG), Austin Rivers (14.4 PPG), Mason Plumlee (11.4 PPG) and Andre Dawkins (10.1 PPG) - average double figures.
The Blue Devils are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game. Duke is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Coach K and the Blue Devils are showing their best value as far back as I can remember here tonight. Bet Duke Tuesday.
|11-29-11||Illinois v. Maryland Terrapins +4||71-62||Loss||-110||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Maryland +4
The Maryland Terrapins should not be an underdog at home to the Illinois Fighting Illini. Both of these teams are in transition years, and the clear value in this one is with the home dog Terrapins.
Illinois only has one starter back from last year's team, and they are relying heavily on freshmen this season. While the Illini are off to a 5-1 start, they have played a very easy schedule to say the least. Four of their wins include Loyola-Illinois, SIU-Edwardsville, Lipscomb and Chicago State. They beat Richmond 70-61 on a neutral floor, and lost to Illinois State 59-63 at a neutral site as well.
Maryland has two starters back from last year's team. Those two have played a big role this far for the Terrapins. G Terrell Stoglin (20.2 PPG) is their leading scorer, while G Sean Mosely (11.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is second on the team in scoring. Maryland is 3-2, but both of their losses came at neutral sites against two of the better teams in the land in Alabama and Iona.
Illinois is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a home win scoring 85 or more points. The Fighting Illini are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. These four trends make for an 18-0 system backing the Terrapins. Also, Maryland is 32-12 ATS in their last 44 home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game. Roll with Maryland Tuesday.
|11-28-11||Long Beach State +10 v. Louisville||66-79||Loss||-105||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* Long Beach State/Louisville ESPNU ATS ANNIHILATOR on Long Beach State +10
Long Beach State proved that they were capable of playing with the big boys with an 86-76 victory at Pittsburgh on November 16th as a 13.5-point underdog. Now, I believe they will give Louisville all they can handle and more tonight.
As many as five players have missed time this season for Louisville (5-0), and forward Stephan Van Treese is out once again - this time indefinitely - after reaggravating his ailing left knee in practice Saturday. Mike Marra (knee) is expected to miss the rest of the season, and Wayne Blackshear is recovering from shoulder surgery. Rakeem Buckles and Peyton Siva are both nursing injuries as well.
"We're in a survival mode right now is all we're trying to do," coach Rick Pitino said. "We are so banged up, we lack practice so much because our practices right now are so light and so easy, I'm just afraid to get somebody hurt. We're just trying to survive right now and hold off the enemy until the cavalry comes."
The Cardinals needed a 16-5 run to close out the game to beat Ohio 59-54 last time out despite being a 16.5-point favorite. That effort shows this team is extremely vulnerable right now due to these injuries.
Long Beach State has three studs on their team that will give them a chance to beat anyone they face this season. They are G Casper Ware (18.8 PPG, 4.0 APG), G Larry Anderson (14.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.8 APG) and F T.J. Robinson (14.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG).
While the 49ers have lost two of their last three games by a combined six points, there is a trend that shows they are in a good spot here. Long Beach State is a perfect 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Louisville is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games after a win by 6 points or less. Take Long Beach State Monday.
|11-25-11||Providence v. Iowa State -2||54-64||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
15* College Hoops Friday Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -2
The Iowa State Cyclones are certainly a team that is going under the radar in the early going. They have some of the best transfers in the entire country thanks to head coach Fred Hoiberg, who has ties to the NBA. Those ties make many of these studs want to play for him.
The Cyclones' top four scorers this season are all newcomers. They are F Royce White (18.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 2.0 BPG), G Chris Allen (13.5 PPG), G Chris Babb (12.2 PPG), and G Tyrus McGee (10.2 PPG, 70.6% 3-Pointers). Plus, they have starters Scott Christopherson (10.0 PPG) and F Melvin Ejim (7.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) back from last season.
ISU has been burning up the nets en route to their 3-1 start, scoring 83.2 points/game while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor, 45.3 percent from 3-point range, and 73.1 percent from the free throw line. I fully expect this team to make some noise in the Big 12 this season.
Providence is off to a 4-0 start, but they have played the likes of Farleigh Dickinson, Fairfield, Florida A&M and Southern U. They have only had one line set in their four games, which means they have played very weak competition. Plus, three of those wins came by 11 points or less, including a lackluster 59-53 home win over Southern where they shot 26.5 percent from the floor.
The Friars are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games. Providence is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. ISU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|11-25-11||Northern Colorado -1 v. Western Carolina||74-57||Win||100||15 h 35 m||Show|
15* College Hoops Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Colorado -1
Northern Colorado and Western Carolina have each played two of the same opponents this season. Looking at their numbers against those common opponents, it's easy to see that Northern Colorado is the superior team, and they should be a much heavier favorite Friday.
Northern Colorado is undervalued right now due to their 0-4 start. But they have played a very tough schedule with the likes of New Mexico State, Wyoming, Northern Iowa and Iowa State, with three of those games coming on the road.
Northern Colorado lost to Northern Iowa 69-78 and to Iowa State 82-90, or an average of 8.5 points/game. They shot 48.9 percent against Northern Iowa and 49.2 percent against Iowa State.
Western Carolina lost to Iowa State 60-92 and to Northern Iowa 39-59, or an average of 26.0 points/game. They shot 43.6 percent against Iowa State and 29.8 percent against Northern Iowa. Because they have two wins on the season, which came against lowly Montreat-Ander and Presbyterian, Western Carolina is getting too much respect.
Western Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bet Northern Colorado Friday.
|11-23-11||Illinois State +9 v. Illinois||Top||59-63||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State +9
Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They return five of their top seven scorers from last year, and they are off to a 3-1 start this season. They'll certainly be motivated tonight to go up against their big brother in Illinois, which is a team that is in rebuilding mode.
The Redbirds are a very balanced team with five players averaging 9.0 points or more. They are Tyler Brown (12.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG), John Wilkins (12.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Jon Ekey (10.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG), Jackie Carmichael (9.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Nic Moore (9.0 PPG, 3.8 APG).
Illinois has returned just one starter from last season, and they don't have an impressive win yet despite their 4-0 start. The Illini are shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor despite playing some very weak competiiton. They'll be up against an Illinois State team that is allowing just 58.2 points/game and 40.0 percent shooting. Illinois only had five players score at least one point in their 70-61 win over Richmond last night, so depth is clearly an issue.
The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. Illinois is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 neutral court games overall. The Redbirds are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Illinois State is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Bet Illinois State Wednesday.
|11-22-11||California v. Missouri -2.5||53-92||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -2.5
I backed the Missouri Tigers last night in their 87-58 victory over Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite, and I'll ride them for many of the same reasons here again tonight.
Missouri returns all five starters from last year's team. Marcus Denmon leads a cast of five players who all averaged double-figure scoring last year (Laurence Bowers, Ricardo Ratliffe, Michael Dixon and Kim English). Missouri went 15-3 out-of-conference last season.
Aisde from the injured Bowers, all of these guys are playing at a high level in the early going. Here is a look at their stat lines thus far: Denmon (20.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG), England (15.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG), Ratliffe (11.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Dixon (10.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG). Throw in Phil Pressey (14.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 12 Steals) and you have five players scoring in double-digits.
Missouri has simply lit the nets on fire so far. The Tigers are scoring 83.5 points/game, shooting 49.5 percent from the field, hitting 47.9 percent of their 3-point shots, and cashing in 77.4 percent of their free throws. They are also allowing just 60.2 points/game, 40.7 percent shooting, and 28.8 percent from 3-point range. This team is the real deal and will be a factor come March.
While I have also been a believer of Cal in the early going, I don't believe they have the firepower to match Missouri. This is also essentially a home game for the Tigers, as it will be played in Kansas City, Missouri. With the crowd behind them, I'll gladly back this squad as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight.
Cal is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12 opponents, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 none-conference games overall. The Golden Bears are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games as an underdog. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Missouri head coach Frank Haith is 15-3 ATS in his last 18 games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Take Missouri Tuesday.
|11-22-11||Rutgers v. Illinois State +4||70-76||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +4
Illinois State should not be an underdog against Rutgers tonight. This is a team that returns a lot of experience from last year's squad, and one that will compete for a Missouri Valley Conference title. Meanwhile, Rutgers loses a lot, and they will once again be a bottom feeder in the Big East.
The Redbirds return five of their top seven scorers from last season. This is a very balanced team that is led by Jackie Carmichael (11.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who dominates the paint. Jon Ekey (10.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG), John Wilkins (9.7 PPG), Tyler Brown (9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Nic Moore (8.3 PPG, 4.0 APG) have all been playing at a high level thus far.
Rutgers loses three of their top five scorers from last season, including leading scorer Jonathan Mitchell (14.4 PPG). They don't have a single player back who averaged double-digits in scoring last season, and they only have two returning that put up more than 5.6 PPG last year. This is clearly a team in rebuilding mode.
While Rutgers is 3-1 on the season, their three wins have all come at home against the likes of Dartmouth, Sacred Heart and Hampton. They only beat Dartmouth 62-56 as a 19.5-point favorite. The most telling game about the Scarlet Knights came in their 57-72 road loss to Miami, where they shot just 36.9 percent from the floor.
Illinois State is off to a 2-1 start, and they have shown that they are a tremendous defensive team in the early going. The Redbirds are allowing just 54.3 points/game and 37.1 percent shooting thus far. They have also forced an average of 17 turnovers/game.
Rutgers is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game. The Scarlet Knights are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, and 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. These three trends make for a 19-2 (90%) System backing the Illinois State. Roll with the Redbirds Tuesday.
|11-21-11||Notre Dame v. Missouri -4||58-87||Win||100||7 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -4
The Missouri Tigers are primed to be on of the most improved teams in the country this season. Notre Dame, on the other hand, will not be as productive as they were a year ago with the loss of leading scorer Ben Hansbrough (18.4 points/game). The Irish only have two starters back from last season, and this is a transition year for head coach Mike Brey.
Missouri returns all five starters from last year's team. Marcus Denmon leads a cast of five players who all averaged double-figure scoring last year (Laurence Bowers, Ricardo Ratliffe, Michael Dixon and Kim English). Missouri went 15-3 out-of-conference last season.
Using its speed and sharp outside shooting, 24th-ranked Missouri is averaging 82.3 points while shooting 48.3 percent (29 of 60) from 3-point range en route to a 3-0 start. Denmon (18.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG), English (17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), Ratliffe (11.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Dixon (11.3 PPG) are all off to fast starts. Phil Pressley (13.3 PPG, 4.0 APG, 10 Steals) has been excellent as well.
This play falls into a system that is 68-31 (68.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on a favorite (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.
This is essentially a home game for the Tigers as it will be played in Kansas City, Missouri. The Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 none-conference games. Missouri is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference contests. Roll with the Tigers Monday.
|11-19-11||Hawaii v. Gonzaga -12||54-73||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
15* Hawaii/Gonzaga CBB Saturday Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -12
Gonzaga gets the call Saturday as a 12-point home favorite over Hawaii. The Zags are the real deal this season with a ton of experience back from last year's squad. The Zags have opened the season wtih two impressive wins over Eastern Washington and Washington State, so they have already been tested in the early going. They won't get much of a test Saturday from a Hawaii team that is clearly not on their level.
The Warriors are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. WCC opponents. The Zags are 91-65 ATS in Saturday games since 1997, including 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games. This is a team you can trust with your money on the weekends, especially today. Bet Gonzaga Saturday.
|11-18-11||Delaware v. Villanova -15||69-79||Loss||-105||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Villanova -15
The Villanova Wildcats should be a much heavier favorite tonight at home over Delaware. I'll take advantage by backing Villanova to an easy blowout victory and cover in this one.
Villanova is off to a 2-0 start this season, outscoring their opponents 91.0 to 69.5 on average. They have been excellent defensively, limiting their foes to just 36.6 percent shooting and outrebounding them 49.5 to 32.0 on average.
The Wildcats have plenty of talent back from last season to compete for a Big East title this year. They have three studs back in G Dominic Cheek (22.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG), G Maalik Wayns (18.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and F Mouphtaou Yarou (17.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG). These three are all off to fast starts and will lead the Wildcats again tonight.
Delaware lost to Radford 54-58 in their opener. They shot just 28.8 percent from the floor and allowed a whopping 47 rebounds. This is a team that has not has any success against Villanova in the past.
The Wildcats are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Delaware, including a 78-59 victory in 2010, and a 97-63 win in '09. Delaware is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Villanova Friday.
|11-17-11||Eastern Washington +13 v. Oregon||65-73||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Washington +13
Eastern Washington showed what they were capable of when they actually held a lead with seven minutes to play at Gonzaga in their opener. They eventually lost 69-77 as the Zags pulled the game out at the free throw line. Eastern Washington would get a taste of victory their next time out, topping South Dakota 70-61 at home.
This is a very experienced Eastern Washington team that returns four starters from last year. They have each of their top seven scorers back from last season, and they added in forward Collin Chiverton. This guy leads the team in scoring at a whopping 25.0 points/game thus far, and he's hitting 48.0 percent of his 3-point shots.
EWU has been playing lights out defensively. They are allowing opposing teams to shoots just 38.7 percent from the floor through their first two games, while forcing a combined 33 turnovers. They'll be up against an Oregon team that committed 20 turnovers in a 64-78 loss at Vanderbilt in their opener.
Eastern Washington is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog overall. This makes for an 18-0 System backing EWU tonight. Take Eastern Washington Thursday.
|11-16-11||Utah +8.5 v. Boise State||59-80||Loss||-105||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah +8.5
Fresno State is simply getting too much respect from odds makers tonight. This line opened at 6 and has been bet up to 8.5 in most places. That movement is an overreaction from these team's opening performances.
Utah barely beat San Diego Christian 58-55 in their opener despite limiting them to 37.0% shooting. Boise State thumped Colorado Christian 95-44 while holding them to 34.9% shooting. While that close win for the Utes is somewhat disturbing, I believe it's the reason we are getting so much value with them tonight.
The Utes welcome back four players from last year's squad, including two starters. Head coach Larry Krystkowiak has a point guard with good upside in 6-0 senior Josh Watkins (14.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.5 apg), a shooter in 6-1 junior Chris Hines (4.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .369 3PT) and a pair of 7-footers: David Foster (2.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg), a senior who is actually 7-3, and 7-0 junior Jason Washburn (6.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg).
Watkins scored 23 points in their opener while getting to the rim at will. Washburn finished with 12 points and a career-best 10 rebounds for the Utes. Foster and Hines are each out with injuries, but with Watkins on the perimeter and Washburn inside, this team has the 1-2 punch it needs to be competitive tonight.
Boise State lost seven seniors from last year's team. The Broncos have a roster that is mostly brand new with nine newcomers. Of the 14 players listed on the roster, six are freshmen and three are sophomores, and 55 points per game from nine different players must be replaced. Boise's leading returning scorer from last season is G Westly Perryman (6.1 ppg).
The Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Utah is 6-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Boise State is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Broncos are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Roll with Utah Wednesday.
|11-16-11||Indiana v. Evansville +6||94-73||Loss||-110||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +6
After 50-plus years in Roberts Stadium, the Purple Aces move into brand-spanking-new Ford Center. This new venue has brought added excitement to Evansville basketball, and that was certainly on display in their 80-77 (OT) home win over Butler in their opener.
Colt Ryan scored 23 points to lead the way for Evansville while knocking down 14 of 18 free throws. Jordan Jahr and Denver Holmes each chipped in 15 points for the Purple Aces, while Kenny Harris (10 points) and Lewis Jones (12 points) rounded out their top five scorers.
After their effort at home against last season's runner-up for the national championship, I have no doubt that this is going to be a special team this season, especially at home in their new arena. Five players scored in double-figures in their opener, which is a sign of a complete team.
This is a team that returned three starters from last season in Ryan (15.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Harris (8.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Holmes (7.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg). In fact, throw in key bench player Ned Cox (7.3 ppg), and the Purple Aces returned their top four scorers from a year ago.
Indiana just hasn't been able to get back to their glory days. While I do believe they will be improved (that's not saying much) this season, I don't believe they are going to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten. They are off to a 2-0 start, but both of those wins came at home over Stony Brook and UT-Chattanooga. This is their first real test of the season Wednesday.
The Hoosiers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Indiana is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Purple Aces are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Evansville is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Evansville Wednesday.
|11-15-11||Kansas +6.5 v. Kentucky||65-75||Loss||-105||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas +6.5
Kansas should not be catching 6.5 points from Kentucky tonight. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Wildcats are getting a little too much respect in the early going as I see it, making the Jayhawks the clear play tonight.
Both teams lost a lot of experience and production from last year, but all in all they are pretty even when it comes to what they have coming back. Kentucky head coach John Calipari has maintained that his team is so young that the staff is behind in putting in little things like inbounds plays. The Wildcats have six freshmen on their roster.
Kansas opened their season with a 100-54 victory over Towson. Thomas Robinson may be the Jayhawks' best returning player. He scored 18 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out four assists. Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson showed off their speed in the backcourt. The senior Taylor finished with 12 points and four assists, while Johnson scored eight points and handed out eight assists. Travis Releford had 14 points and Connor Teahan added 11 points on 4-of-5 shooting in a very balanced team effort.
This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on an underdog (KANSAS) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 8 or more points/game, after scoring 95 points or more.
The Jayhawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Kansas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Kentucky is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 foes. Kansas is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. SEC opponents. Roll with the Jayhawks Tuesday.
|11-15-11||Iowa State -4 v. Drake||65-74||Loss||-110||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -4
Iowa State, known as Transfer U this season, is going to be one of the biggest surprises in the country. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has brought in some tremendous recruits, most of which are transfers from other schools. This is certainly the sleeper in the Big 12 conference this season.
Four of those transfers had to sit out last season as they were ineligible, watching the Cyclones put together a disappointing 16-6 season. "They're very hungry, especially the guys who sat out last year," Hoiberg said. "It was very difficult for those four guys to sit out last season. They want to hit the ground running."
Those four are 6-3 senior guard Chris Allen (8.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg), a transfer from Michigan State, 6-5 guard Chris Babb (9.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg), a transfer from Penn State, 6-9 forward Anthony Booker (6.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg), a transfer from Southern Illinois and 6-8 forward Royce White (16.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg in high school), a transfer from Minnesota.
The Cyclones signed a junior college All-American in 6-2 point guard Tyrus McGee (20.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg at Cowley County CC), who Hoiberg thinks can play right away. In combination with 6-3 senior guard Scott Christopherson (13.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg), a 44-percent three-point shooter last season, and 6-6 sophomore wing Melvin Ejim (10.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg), the Cyclones have the weapons this year to play the way Hoiberg wants to.
ISU opened their season with an 86-77 victory over Lehigh, the same team that led St. John's by 16 points in their opener before eventually falling 73-78. ISU's newcomers made a huge impact right away. Royce White, who many believe will be a future first-round NBA draft pick, led the way with 25 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and two assists.
Babb, Allen and Booker each scored 10 points, while Babb also dished out five assists. Iowa State led this game 79-53 with 7:37 left, so this was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They hit 30 of 53 shots (56.6 percent) from the field and also converted 16 of 21 free throws (76.2%). McGee had 8 points and Christopherson added 12 points for ISU in a very balanced effort.
Iowa State beat Drake 91-43 last season at home, a year after topping the Bulldogs 90-70 on the road. They shot 53.8 percent from the floor in their 2010 meeting while limiting the Bulldogs to just 22.4 percent shooting. ISU is basically like a big brother to Drake as these two schools are only about 30 miles apart. The Cyclones are the more talented team across the board.
This play falls into a system that is 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams as an underdog or pick (DRAKE) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games. ISU is 15-5 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Take Iowa State Tuesday.
|11-15-11||Washington State +12.5 v. Gonzaga||81-89||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
15* Washington State/Gonzaga CBB Monday Night BAILOUT on Washington State +12.5
This has been the biggest line movement of the day. Washington State opened as a 9.5-point underdog and this line has been bet all the way up to Gonzaga -12.5. The betting public loves to back these "Cinderella" teams that have made some noise in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga is the Boise State of basketball, and you've seen how the Broncos have struggled against the spread this season because of their lines constantly being inflated.
This line is certainly inflated tonight as Gonzaga is getting way too much respect from odds makers and the public. These two teams play every season, and Washington State has won three of the last five meetings while going 4-1 ATS in the process. That includes an 81-59 home victory over the Zags last season as a 4-point favorite.
Washington State has a lot of experience back from last year's team. They return six of their top eight scorers, including Faisal Aden (12.7 points) and Reggie Moore (9.1 points). While they do lose leading scorer Klay Thompson to the NBA, the Cougars actually should be just as good as they were a season ago. They will play more as a team instead of running their entire offense through Thompson.
The No. 23 Bulldogs are clearly overrated this season. That was evident in their 77-69 victory over Eastern Washington as a 21-point favorite. They trailed that game with less than seven minutes remaining, but would score 11 of thier final 13 points from the free throw line to escape with a victory. Gonzaga shot 19 of 51 (37.3%) from the floor and committed 18 turnovers. WSU held the Zags to 19 of 48 shooting while forcing 25 turnovers in their 81-59 victory last year.
As mentioned earlier, the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Gonzaga. Also, Washington State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. West Coast Conference foes. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Pac-12 opponents, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with Washington State Monday.
|11-14-11||Cal Irvine +8.5 v. San Jose St||50-51||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +8.5
UC-Irvine should not be catching this many points against San Jose State tonight. The Anteaters opened as a 6.5-point dog and the betting public has back San Jose State enough to move this line a full two points, providing us with ample value to pull the trigger.
Irvine was certainly tested in their opener, falling 56-77 at California. They cover the spread as a 21.5-point underdog against the ranked Bears, who are my pick to win the Pac-12 this season. Chris McNealy led the way for the Anteaters with 14 points. This team returns four of their top seven scorers from last season, including McNealy.
There's no way San Jose State should be this heavily favored after their opening performance. The Spartans lost at Cal Poly by a final of 52-79 as a 6.5-point underdog. They shot just 12 of 42 (28.6%) from the floor while committing 17 turnovers, and they were out-rebounded 26-47.
San Jose State lost their top two scorers from last season in Adrian Oliver (24.0 points) and Justin Graham (14.2 points). Without those two studs, the Spartans are clearly going to take a step back this season.
Irvine is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games off a road loss by 10 or more points. San Jose State is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. The Spartans are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. SJSU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Take UC-Irvine Monday.
|11-11-11||Illinois State v. Fresno State -2||47-55||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Fresno State -2
Illinois State is getting far too much respect here tonight. This is a team that went 12-19 last season, including 2-11 on the road. Fresno State should be a much heavier favorite after going 11-5 SU & 8-5 ATS at home last season.
I like new rookie head coach Rodney Terry to inject some life into the Fresno State basketball program. He has seven returning players to work with, including three returning starters at guard which will help make the transition a smooth one.
Sophomore Kevin Olekaibe (12.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg) started 19 games as a freshman. Joining him in the backcourt are fellow returning starters Garrett Johnson (8.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Shepp (3.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg). Johnson is a 6-4 junior shooting guard and Shepp a 6-2 senior point man. Both were fairly effective for Fresno State last season.
Terry has welcomed in three junior college transfers to the frontcourt. As a freshman at George Mason, Kevin Foster, a 6-8 junior, scored a season-high 22 points against William & Mary. He played his sophomore season at College of Central Florida, where he averaged 17 points and eight rebounds.
Daquan Brown, also a junior, comes from Barstow College in California. The 6-10 post player averaged 14 points and 11 rebounds his sophomore season. He averaged 17 and 10 as a freshman en route to being chosen first-team All-Foothills Conference both seasons.
6-5 junior swingman Larry McGaughey, of Lawson State Community College in Alabama, led his team to a 25-6 record en route to being chosen first-team NCJAA All-America. He averaged 16 points, five rebounds and three assists, and can be used as a big guard if necessary.
Illinois State is 9-19 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. Fresno State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Roll with Fresno State Friday.
|11-11-11||Loyola (Md.) v. Wake Forest -1.5||63-75||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -1.5
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off an 8-24 season. As a result, this team is undervalued heading into 2011. This is a team that returns four starters and should be one of the most improved squads in the country.
Their best player coming back is 6-7, 205-pound sophomore Travis McKie (13.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 0.9 spg, 1.0 bpg), who led the Deacs in scoring and rebounding last season while earning a spot on the ACC All-Freshman team.
7-0, 235-pound sophomore Carson Desrosiers (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) started 22 games as a freshman. "When Carson came here, he was benching 140 pounds," head coach Jeff Bzdelik said. "Today, he's up to 240 pounds. All those opportunities he had at the rim that he didn't finish, this year, he'll finish."
6-2 point guard Tony Chennault (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.9 apg) should be able to help his classmate be more efficient on the offensive end this season now that he's healthy and back in shape. Although he returned to play 15 games last season, Chennault was never the same player who was chosen Philadelphia's prep player of the year as a senior in high school. Chennault lost more than 10 pounds in the offseason and has regained his pre-injury quickness.
Chennault's return is bolstered by the addition of 6-0 freshman Anthony Fields (15.0 ppg, 11.0 apg, 2.0 spg at Quality Education Academy/Winston-Salem, N.C.). A Detroit native who prepped in Wake Forest's hometown, Fields is a natural playmaker who has drawn comparisons to former Deacon standout Ish Smith.
The presence of two natural point guards will help the Deacons by allowing 6-3 junior C.J. Harris (10.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.9 spg, .339 3PT, .815 FT) to return to his natural position of shooting guard, where he was a freshman starter in 2010. He's the last holdover from Wake's last NCAA team.
Look out for 6-3 freshman Chase Fischer (37.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.0 spg for Ripley, W.Va., High), a first-team Parade All-American and one of the best shooters in this recruiting class.
The Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Loyola-Maryland is 2-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Take Wake Forest Friday.
|11-09-11||Liberty Flames +20 v. Texas A&M||59-81||Loss||-110||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* College Hoops PLAY OF THE DAY on Liberty +20
Liberty welcomes back four starters from a team that went 19-13 last season. They ended the year on a five-game losing streak, so obviously this is going to be a very motivated team heading into 2011.
John Brown returns along with fellow guard Jesse Sanders, who was named to the preseason all-Big South team. Brown averaged 11.3 points and a team-best 10.8 rebounds in 2010-11. Sanders also scored 11.3 points per game and led Liberty with an average of 5.7 assists while being named the top player in the conference.
Texas A&M hired Billy Kennedy in May, but he had to take a leave of absence to deal with the early stages of Parkinson's disease. With no timetable set for his return, associate head coach Glynn Cyprien has been left in charge. I can definitely see the Aggies getting off to a shaky start in the early going without their head coach.
This line opened at 18.5 and has been bet up to 20. That gives us some extra value on the dog tonight as the betting public loves to back favorites early in the season. Liberty is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take Liberty Wednesday.
|11-07-11||Valparaiso +14 v. Arizona||64-73||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* Valparaiso/Arizona ESPNU Monday Night BAILOUT on Valparaiso +14
Arizona is clearly in rebuilding mode. Despite the departure of one of the nation's top players, Arizona is ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 for the first time in four years based partially on the expectations of four highly touted freshmen.
That inexperienced group has already shown it has plenty of work to do. The Wildcats lost their exhibition opener 69-68 to Division II Seattle Pacific, their first preseason defeat since falling to Athletes in Action in 1984. They also had a sloppy 60-51 win over D-II Humboldt State on Tuesday. Arizona turned the ball over 20 times and shot 57.9 percent from the free-throw line (22 of 38).
Arizona has known since last spring it would have to replace Derrick Williams, who left after his sophomore season for the NBA draft and was selected second overall by Minnesota. Williams scored 19.5 points per game, making him the only Wildcat to average double figures. Arizona also lost its second-leading scorer in Lamont Jones, who transferred to Iona.
Valparaiso went 23-12 last season and finished a game out of first place in the Horizon League. Former Valpo star and first-year coach Bryce Drew takes over a team that returns two starters. The Crusaders will likely lean on junior swingman Ryan Broekhoff, who started 34 games last season and finished third on the team in scoring (10.3 points per game). He shot a Horizon League-best 44.8 percent from 3-point range.
The Wildcats did go 17-0 at home last year, but they only outscored their opponents by an average of 15.7 points/game despite having one of the best teams in the country. This year's Wildcats are not nearly the team they were a season ago, and that will show again tonight as they struggle to not only cover the spread, but to beat Valpo outright. The Crusaders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater, while the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Bet Valpo Monday.
|04-04-11||Butler +3.5 v. Connecticut||Top||41-53||Loss||-114||10 h 31 m||Show|
20* Butler/UConn NCAA Title Game ANNIHILATOR on Butler +3.5
I believe this game is about as close to a toss-up as you can get, but I certainly don't believe Butler should be the underdog. I'll take the points here on a Bulldogs team that is playing in their second straight national title game. The sour taste from losing to Duke when they had a chance to win on a last-second attempt from half court at the buzzer still looms large in these player's minds. I believe they are even more determined to make sure that they get a taste of victory this time around.
These are two great defensive teams, but Butler has the edge on this end of the floor. The Bulldogs simply shut teams down, and play great team defense to try and stop opposing star players. Butler will have a game-plan to shut down Kemba Walker, and they will execute it to perfection. Everyone seems to talk about Walker, but nobody gives Butler's Shelvin Mack the respect he deserves. Mack has scored 30, 27 and 24 points in three of the Bulldogs five games in the Big Dance. He has also made most of their clutch shots down the stretch. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Butler is 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Butler Monday.
|04-02-11||Kentucky v. Connecticut +2.5||55-56||Win||100||80 h 31 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/UConn Final Four No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut +2.5
Kentucky should not be favored against Connecticut in this match-up. I know these are two different teams from the first time they played this season, but you can't just completely ignore the result. UConn beat Kentucky 84-67 on a neutral court in that game, shooting 57.7% from the floor while limiting the Wildcats to only 36.7% shooting. There's no way the Wildcats should be favored, especially considering the kind of roll that UConn is on.
The Huskies won 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East Tournament, and also four games in the Big Dance with three of those coming by a comfortable margin. This team just feels like they cannot lose, especially with Kemba Walker closing out games for them. Everyone forgets about Jeremy Lamb, but the freshman is 11-of-15 from 3-point range in the Big Dance and he's only getting better with each game. UConn also has the bigs inside who can do the dirty work and don't get enough credit for what they do. The Huskies are 12-0 in neutral court games this season and improve to 13-0 with a victory in the Final Four. Bet UConn Saturday.
|04-02-11||Virginia Commonwealth +2.5 v. Butler||Top||62-70||Loss||-106||77 h 36 m||Show|
20* VCU/Butler Final Four No-Brainer on Virginia Commonwealth +2.5
VCU is the better team right now at this exact point in the season. Odds makers have failed to realize it throughout the NCAA Tournament, and there's no way Butler should be favored in this one. Butler is 4-0 in the Big Dance, but they are only outscoring opponents by 3.0 PPG as they have continued winning close games. VCU has played the more difficult schedule to get to this point, and they are 5-0 while outscoring opponents by 12.0 PPG.
Any team that can beat USC by 13, Georgetown by 18, Purdue by 18, FSU by 1 and Kansas by 10 deserves a lot more respect than VCU is getting. But that works in our favor here, as the Rams can still play the "underdog" card with an "us against the world" attitude. Butler played that role for so long, but this is VCU's year. The Rams have a deeper team and many different players can beat you, while Butler it too reliant upon Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard. If either is off, the Bulldogs don't stand a chance. The Rams are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Take VCU Saturday.
|03-31-11||Wichita State -1.5 v. Alabama||Top||66-57||Win||100||30 h 32 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Wichita State -1.5
As previously stated, Wichita State is the best team left in the NIT. They proved it on Tuesday night with a 75-44 beat down of Washington State, and they'll do so again Thursday with a thumping of Alabama. This Shockers squad is certainly a worthy NCAA Tournament team and likely would have done some damage in the big dance had they got in. Wichita State is 28-8 on the season, but what's most impressive is their 14-4 road record.
The Shockers are a very deep team which gives them the edge here. Alabama is a quality squad, but the Crimson Tide are just 6-11 SU in 5-11 ATS in all games away from home. Alabama is 0-7 ATS in road games in non-conference games this season. The Crimson Tide are 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Wichita State is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. Bet Wichita State Thursday.
|03-29-11||Wichita State -2.5 v. Washington State||75-44||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
15* NIT Semifinals No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -2.5
Wichita State is the most impressive team left in the NIT field. The Shockers are 27-8 this season and likely would have done damage in the NCAA Tournament had they got in. They are taking it out on the opposition in the NIT thus far. Wichita State crushed Nebraska 76-49, followed by an impressive road win at Virginia Tech 79-76. They then beat College of Charleston 82-75 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score indicated as they led by as many as 21 in the second half.
Wichita State is 13-4 on the road this season which is pretty incredible in itself, outscoring opponents by 7.6 PPG. Washington State is a quality team, but they don't have the depth to match what the Shockers have to offer. The Cougars are 3-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Washington State is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite. Wichita State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bet Wichita State Tuesday.
|03-28-11||Oregon v. Creighton -5||76-84||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBI Tournament No-Brainer on Creighton -5
The Creighton Blue Jays have taken this CBI Tournament much more seriously than Oregon. You can tell that by many comments throughout the media. "We wanted to go to the (NCAA) tournament. We fought hard and it didn't happen for us," Creighton's Gregory Echenique said. "Now we have another chance to prove ourselves. We're taking it seriously, and we're definitely going to go get the championship." Oregon head coach Dana Altman doesn't quite see it the same way. "It's not the NCAA tournament. It's not the NIT," he said. "I told our team to keep it in perspective. It's a 16-team tournament that gives us a chance to play a little bit. We have a lot of work to do in the offseason. If they use it as a springboard, that's good. If they think this is where we want to be, it's probably not going to do us any good."
I like Creighton's mindset coming into this one and they are clearly the better team. Creighton (22-14) has played some of its best basketball of the season in the CBI, posting double-digit wins over San Jose State, Davidson and Central Florida. The Bluejays are 18-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.5 PPG. Oregon is just 5-8 on the road this year. The Ducks are 0-7 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is 6-22 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Creighton is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Roll with Creighton Monday.
|03-27-11||Virginia Commonwealth +11.5 v. Kansas||Top||71-61||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
25* Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Commonwealth +11.5
VCU is one again getting disrespected by odds makers Sunday. This team has won four straight games as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament to get to this point, and I would not be surprised one bit to see the Rams pull off another one today. VCU had six players score in double-figures in their 94-76 victory over Purdue, and their depth is what makes them such a dangerous team.
VCU is now a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Kansas is 14-28 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. VCU is a solid 14-3 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1997. Kansas is getting way too much respect here being the last No. 1 seed left in the field. Bet VCU Sunday.
|03-26-11||Arizona v. Connecticut -2.5||Top||63-65||Loss||-108||8 h 28 m||Show|
20* Arizona/UConn CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Connecticut -2.5
The UConn Huskies are on some kind of roll right now, and they seriously feel like they cannot be beaten. Their confidence along with their continued stellar play will have the Huskies advancing to the Final Four after beat Arizona handily Saturday. After winning five games in five days to take down the Big East Tournament, UConn has had little trouble thus far in the Big Dance with easy wins over Bucknell and Cincinnati before pulling away from San Diego State late last round.
Arizona put together their most complete performance of the season against Duke, but they aren't possibly going to to shoot 54% again like they did against the Blue Devils. UConn hasn't allowed any opponent in the Big Dance to shoot better than 42% from the field. The Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. This team has something special going right now and I'm going to continue to ride it. Bet UConn Saturday.
|03-25-11||Virginia Commonwealth +3.5 v. Florida State||Top||72-71||Win||100||43 h 4 m||Show|
20* VCU/FSU TBS Friday Night BAILOUT on Virginia Commonwealth +3.5
Many members of the media were bashing the selection committee for allowing VCU into the NCAA tournament. The Rams heard everything that was said, and have used it as a huge motivational tool thus far. VCU made easy work of No. 6 seed Georgetown 74-56, and then backed it up in the Round of 32 by crushing No. 3 seed Purdue 94-76. This is perhaps the most dangerous team in the Big Dance right now outside of the No. 1 seeds.
The Rams shot 56.9 percent against the Boilermakers while finishing with six players in double-digits scoring. Point guard Joey Rodriquez paved the way with 12 points and 11 assists, many of which went to Bradford Burgess who finished with a team-high 23 points and eight rebounds. While Florida State is a solid defensive team, they do not have what it takes to slow down this train known as VCU with several differnt players who can beat you. The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Take Virginia Commonwealth Friday.
|03-25-11||Kentucky v. Ohio State -5.5||62-60||Loss||-105||43 h 59 m||Show|
15* Sweet 16 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are clearly the best team left in the Big Dance. After crushing UT-San Antonio 75-46 in their opening game, they followed up with a 98-66 win over a solid George Mason team in the Round of 32. Now, they face a Kentucky team that has struggled against inferior teams to reach this point. The Wildcats needed a last-second layup to beat Princeton 59-57, and had to come back from a double-digit deficit to beat WVU 71-63. Their luck runs out Friday.
Ohio State is not only the more complete team, they also have more experience. John Calipari is a great recruiter, but he's never going to win a championship with as many freshman as he has starting year in and year out. Kentucky will be overwhelmed by what Ohio State has to offer, with a dominant big man in Sullinger inside and four excellent 3-point shooters outside who all hit 40% or better from distance. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bet Ohio State Friday.
|03-24-11||Butler +5 v. Wisconsin||61-54||Win||100||19 h 20 m||Show|
15* Butler/Wisconsin TBS Thursday Night BAILOUT on Butler +5
This Butler team is a bunch of Bulldogs, literally. They simply don't quit, and Wisconsin is going to be in for a fight that they won't be ready for. The Bulldogs have the second-best winning percentage of any team in the country over the last 5 seasons, trailing only Kansas. Yet they don't get treated like they are one of the best teams in the land. That's why this Butler team always plays with a chip on their shoulder, and why they are so dangerous come tournament time.
Wisconsin has had a nice run to this point, getting by Belmont and escaping Kansas State in the Round of 32. I just don't think the Badgers have what it takes to win this game by 6 points, let alone win it a all. I expect this one to go right down to the wire, which clearly makes the dog the play. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Butler is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. The Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Ten. Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as a favorite. Butler is 7-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Roll with Butler Thursday.
|03-24-11||Connecticut v. San Diego St||Top||74-67||Win||100||16 h 25 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut PK
The NCAA Tournament is all about match-ups, and this is a great one for the Connecticut Huskies tonight. SDSU has not faced a team all season that has what UConn has to offer. The Huskies have the big men inside in Oriakhi, Smith and Coombs-McDaniel who will be able to slow down SDSU
|03-23-11||College of Charleston +8.5 v. Wichita State||75-82||Win||100||6 h 59 m||Show|
15* Charleston/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charleston +8.5
Charleston is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they have been all season. The Cougars are 26-10 on the year and 18-13 ATS. This is a team that is deep with talent, and one that the odds makers have undervalued once again Wednesday. I like this Wichita State team as well, but they aren't worthy of being 8.5-point favorites tonight. Andrew Goudelock is one of the best players in the country that nobody knows about. Goudelock scores 23.5 PPG this season and he does a little bit of everything for the Cougars.
Charleston has six players who average 8.0 PPG or more, and four players grabbing 5.6 RPG or more. Charleston is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. They are scoring 84.2 PPG in these games and outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.1 PPG. Wichita State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bet Charleston Wednesday.
|03-21-11||New Mexico v. Alabama -6||67-74||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* NIT Game of the Week on Alabama -6
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been able to defend their home court as well as any team in the country this season. Getting the Tide as a slim 6-point home favorite tonight in the NIT is an absolute gift from odds makers. Alabama is 17-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 PPG. The Crimson Tide are 11-2 ATS in their lined home games this year. Alabama is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season, 8-0 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season and 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. That makes for a 21-0 ATS System in the Tide's favor.
New Mexico is a quality team, but they just aren't the same without senior point guard and leader Dairese Gary. The Lobos were able to beat UNLV at home without Gary in the opening round, but they won't be so furtunate on the road this time around. Gary leads the team in scoring (14.1) and assists (5.5) while shooting 48% from the field. His contributions and leadership will clearly be missed in a hostile environment tonight. The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Roll with Crimson Tide Monday.
|03-20-11||Michigan +11.5 v. Duke||Top||71-73||Win||100||4 h 1 m||Show|
20* Duke/Michigan NCAA Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan +11.5
The Michigan Wolverines should not be catching 11.5 points Sunday against the Duke Blue Devils. Michigan broke its game against Tennessee open early in the second half, riding a 16-0 run out of the locker room to a surprisingly easy 75-45 rout of the Volunteers. The Wolverines are now 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and have been one of the best covering teams in basketball all season. Michigan is 21-8 ATS in all lined games this year.
Michigan is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games and 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Duke is 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less this season. The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. Michigan is 8-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. These four 100% systems add up to a 28-0 ATS System in favor of the Wolverines. Bet Michigan Sunday.
|03-19-11||Butler +8 v. Pittsburgh||71-70||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* NCAA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +8
The Butler Bulldogs are simply catching too many points against Pitt Saturday. Remember, Butler went all the way to the national title game last year. Several key pieces are back from that team, including leading scorer Matt Howard and second-leading scorer Shelvin Mack. Howard had 15 points in their 60-58 win over Old Dominion, including the game-winner. Mack finished with 15 points and 5 assists.
The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. Butler is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Butler is 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog. Butler is 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 non-conference games. Roll with Butler Saturday.
|03-19-11||Temple +6 v. San Diego St||64-71||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* Temple/SDSU TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Temple +6
The Temple Owls have what it takes to knock off San Diego State in the Round of 32 Saturday. I'll gladly take the points here even though I don't believe we well need them. Temple has been going under the radar all season. The Owls are 26-7 on the year, and are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their only losses coming at Duke and to Richmond in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Temple is a great defensive team, allowing 62.2 PPG on 41.3% shooting. They are also scoring 70.8 PPG this season so they can get it done offensively as well. No question they have played a tougher schedule than SDSU this year, which is a big reason why the Aztecs are overrated. SDSU is 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 129.5 or less over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 12-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Bet Temple Saturday.
|03-19-11||UCLA v. Florida -5.5||Top||65-73||Win||101||5 h 50 m||Show|
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -5.5
The Florida Gators are basically playing a home game Saturday when they take on the UCLA Bruins. Obviously the Gators are going to have a huge advantage here with their fans in support as this game is played in Tampa Bay, Florida. Not only that, but Florida is clearly the better team as well and has been underrated all season. The Gators are now 27-7 on the season after shooting 55% and allowing 36% in a 79-51 victory over UCSB Thursday in the opening round.
This play falls into a system that is 65-36 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLORIDA) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). The Gators are 6-0 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. UCLA is 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Take Florida Saturday.
|03-18-11||St Peter's v. Purdue -14.5||43-65||Win||100||14 h 57 m||Show|
15* NCAA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -14.5
The Boilermakers are looking to erase the sour taste from a bad loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. That loss will have grounded Purdue, and they will come out a stronger team in the NCAA Tournament because of it. The Boilermakers have gotten back to the basics in practice and that will show today as they do all the small things right unlike they did in their loss to the Spartans.
Purdue is 25-7 on the season, while St. Peter's only went 20-13 in the weak MAAC. The Boilermakers are a solid 14-7 ATS as a favorite this season. The Peacocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Purdue Friday.
|03-18-11||Long Island +18 v. North Carolina||Top||87-102||Win||100||14 h 53 m||Show|
20* NCAA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Island +18
Long Island is going to give UNC a run for their money Friday and cover this huge spread. The North Carolina Tar Heels have played in several close games in a row with the exception of their 58-75 loss to Duke in the ACC title game. They aren't good enough to blow out a hot Long Island team today. Long Island is 13-0 in their last 13 games, 21-1 in their last 22 games, and 27-5 on the season.
This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (N CAROLINA) - after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 80 points or more. Bet Long Island Friday.
|03-18-11||Villanova -1 v. George Mason||57-61||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
15* Villanova/George Mason NCAA Friday No-Brainer on Villanova -1
The Villanova Wildcats have had time since their loss in the Big East Tournament to get things figured out. I know they have struggled down the stretch, going 5-10 in their last 15 games and 0-5 in their last five games. But this team is still fully loaded with talent, including senior guards Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes who combine to form one of the best guard tandems in the Big Dance.
George Mason had a solid season in the CAA, but they honestly didn't beat any tough opponents out of conference. They are in for a reality check tonight against this hungry, motivated, senior-led Villanova squad. George Mason is 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Villanova Friday.