Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-18 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 230.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
The Clippers' own a defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. Under is 22-8 in Warriors last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games following a straight up win.GOLDEN STATE is 29-10 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Denver v. Kansas State OVER 137 | 56-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Kansas States HC Webers system and calling card has always been based on playing a solid brand of defensive ball. But today against a lower tier non conference team ( Denver), I expect the Wildcats to be a little more free wheeling, and for this total to be eclipsed. DENVER is 18-8 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150.9 ppg .DENVER is 12-3 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 151.8 ppg. Play OVER |
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11-12-18 | Utah v. Minnesota UNDER 147 | 69-78 | Push | 0 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
These are two teams and coaches that base their successes and failures on playing top tier defence. The Utes have three 7-footers on their roster (Novak Topalovic, Jayce Johnson and Brandon Morley). They rank 19th in the nation in average height (78.4 inches). They use their height well within this system of tough inside play and good rebounding. Minnesota's physcial Big 10 group will reciprocate with some strong physical action of their own in what Im betting will be a low scoring affair. UTAH is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 141.4 ppg scored. Krystkowiak is 35-22 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 142.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Nets v. Wolves -2.5 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
With the negative influence of Jimmy Butler saga gone now after he was traded to the 76ers on the weekend, the Minnesota Wolves should feel like they now have a second life, and Im betting will be energized and thrive here tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Yes, the Nets are up-trending, but are on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and off a extremely exhausting and demanding game vs the Warriors last time out. . The Nets are now in the unenviable position of playing against a pumped up team that needs desperately to turn their season around after a ugly 0-5 road trip. MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 2-12 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Minnesota.NBA team (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 70-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-12-18 | UC-Davis +16 v. Arkansas | 58-81 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Im betting the Arkansas Razorbacks are in a emotional letdown situation after a OT loss to Texas in their first game of the season. Despite of this being their home opener it will be hard for the Hogs to have the energy levels needed to cover this fairly big number vs the University of California-Davis Aggies. Im not saying the the Razorbacks 44 home opener winning streak is in jeopardy , but rather that the line is inflated to the point where there is value taking points with the road dog. CAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasonsCAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasonsCAL DAVIS is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Play on Cal Davis to cover |
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11-12-18 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 126-110 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg) behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest. Under is 4-1 in Pelicans last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. Play on the UNDER |
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11-12-18 | St Bonaventure v. Niagara UNDER 152.5 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies turned to their defense to even their record 1-1 with a 67-36 win versus Jackson State and that will be their key in this game vs Niagara. Schmidt is 34-17 UNDER in road games in non-conference games as the coach of ST BONAVENTURE with a combined average of 138.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bonnies last 5 road games.Under is 8-2 in Bonnies last 10 non-conference games.CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (ST BONAVENTURE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Canucks v. Rangers -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
The Rangers (8-7-2) have won five of their last six (5-0-1) and are playing solid fundamental hockey and deserve their favorite status here tonight vs a Canucks team that is 1-0-2 in their L/3 road games. The Rangers are off a couple of road games and have good bets in this situation this seasonNY RANGERS are 4-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. NY Rangers are 3-1 L/4 meetings overall in this series. Rangers are 44-18 in their last 62 vs. Pacific.Play on the NY Rangers to win on the moneyline |
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11-11-18 | Celtics v. Blazers -2.5 | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics successes in recent years has been their ability to play top tier defence, but recently especially on this current road trip they look to be struggling .As a result the Celtics have lost 3 of their L/4 games and have failed to cover 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Portland their hosts tonight are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and have won 3 straight and 6 of their L/7 behind some solid two way basketball that has result in allowing 3 of their L/7opponents to score 93 points or less. With that said, Im recommending we lay the short lumber here with the Blazers. PORTLAND is 35-23 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. HC Stotts is 11-1 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more as the coach of PORTLAND. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 26-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 12.8 ppg. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 29-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 14.9 ppg. Play on Portland to cover |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt v. USC -2 | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
The Trojans showed how explosive they can be when they took out Robert Morris last time out in a powerful well balanced 83-62 win. The Trojans shot 53.2 from the field and allowed their opposition to convert on a lowly 34.3 % of their their shots. Vandy obviously offers up more talent, but travelling from west to east is never any easy proposition for any team , and it will be a factor in what Im betting will be a road loss for the Commodores. USC has played well against non-Pac-12 opponents covering the spread in 31 of the last 47 and is 7-3 ATS L/10 vs SEC teams. VANDERBILT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasonsVANDERBILT is 7-19 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Play on the USC Trojans to cover |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 46 m | Show | |
The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season. This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights . Philly is 0-3 UNDER L/3 vs Dallas. The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 223 | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-11-18 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | 115-89 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
When you first look at this matchup would might assume that the Magic are the superior side, and deserve to be slight favourites here on the road, because of there better play of late as compared to their struggling counterparts. But according to my power rankings charts, and the Orlandos history of ATS futility I feel we have value on a picket line with the ver hungry home team. I know the Kncisk lost last night to Toronto, but I liked their offensive flow in a 128 -112 loss and feel like it could carry into this game. Note The Magic are 11-23 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Orlando took out the reeling Wizards last time out at home in Central Florida , but are just 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Since 1989, sub win percent than opponent underdogs off of a win against a team that just played on the road are just 58-97-5 ATS/61-120 SU in regular season when the final margin of their last game was smaller than the margin going into the fourth quarter. (Orlando) Orlando HC Clifford is 9-23 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-24 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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11-11-18 | Pacers +2.5 v. Rockets | 103-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
The Indiana Pacers currently rank very high on my power ranking charts, while Houston is sinking like a rock, and in their current form look very much like fade material. The Rockets are talented but their seems to be an issue with flow and chemistry right now. Add to that their on tired legs in this spot, after finishing off an extended 5 game road trip that resulted in them losing their last two tilts including one last night in San Antonio . This is actually the Rockets 2nd back to back game scenario in the L/9 days, so Im betting their going to be exhausted. Meanwhile, the Pacers despite of losing 2 of their L/3 games are a deep team that works at an accelerated pace, and Im betting the Rockets wont be able to handle their speed in their current form.I NDIANA is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasonsINDIANA is 23-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.D'Antoni is 8-21 ATS in home games in non-conference games as the coach of HOUSTON. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate witht he average point differntial clicking in a 6.4 ppg. Play on Indiana to cover |
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11-11-18 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +1 | 23-18 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
CFL Playoffs - Western Semifinals Im betting the running game of Saskatchewan will have success on the ground and pound away with success vs a over rated Bombers front-seven, opening up the passing option for Shaq Evans and Jordan Williams-Lambert. SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 5.7 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.SASKATCHEWAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 70 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . CFL Favorites (SASKATCHEWAN) - off a home win by 17 points or more, when playing on a Sunday are 32-8 ATS L/22 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Saskatchewan to cover |
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11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | 20-6 | Loss | -128 | 76 h 17 m | Show | |
The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss, 34-3 vs the 49ers last week and have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just 0-10 ATS as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week. The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL home Teams which are more than 7 point dogs are actually long term good bets going 192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. Play on the Oakland Raiders |
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11-11-18 | Hornets +2.5 v. Pistons | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
The Hornets have consistently proven their not an easy out , as was the case in their last trip to the hardwood vs the Philadelphia 76ers on the road as they lost a heart breaking 133-132 OT decision. Now with rest they come back out looking to rebound vs a inconsistent Detroit team, that just recently ended a 5 game losing streak with a pair of wins vs lower tier teams Orlando and Atlanta. Tonight against this run and gun and high energy Charlotte group Im betting this Motown crew is at a disadvantage. DETROIT is 19-35 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - poor three point shooting team ( 33% or less ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 23-73 SU lL22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. |
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11-11-18 | East Tennessee State +11.5 v. Creighton | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
E.Tenn State is an explosive offensive teams as ws evident against HIWASSEE COLL as they took a 109-44 win. They have enough fire power to hand here with a very good Creighton team. TENN ST is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. CREIGHTON is 5-15 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Play on E Tenn st to cover |
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11-11-18 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 44 | 22-34 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined 19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6 on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. Im betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 47 | 26-29 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jaguars are desperate for wins and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots. They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same. The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts have gone under 8 straight times at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent. NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +6.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out. Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Cleveland Browns to cover |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling back to back games and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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11-11-18 | BC +1.5 v. Hamilton | 8-48 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
CFL Playoffs - Eastern Semifinals Both of these teams enter this playoff tilt after inconsistent seasons.They spilt their two meetings, but my own current updated power rankings suggest the Lions will come out of this with the victory. Look for the Lions to rally around HC Buono who is in his final year of his illustrious career, and get the victory. Note: Hamilton enters the Eastern Semi-Final with just one of their key receivers remaining in their lineup from the start of the season — Luke Tasker. HAMILTON is 1-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.BRITISH COLUMBIA is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points .BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season. CFB Underdogs or pick (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on a Sunday 105-54 ATS L/22 seasons. Play on the BC Lions to cover |
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11-10-18 | California v. USC -5 | 15-14 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 18 m | Show | |
Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. The USC Trojans have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on USC to cover |
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11-10-18 | Colorado State v. Nevada UNDER 63.5 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | California v. USC UNDER 46.5 | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
California has a conservative formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away on the ground , and grab points any way they can. They have scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 240 | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | 89-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Houston despite of their talent level are not playing up to expectations, but from a systems matchup perspective have an edge here even though they are playing in enemy territory but still not far from home. The Rockets were hammered in their last trip to the hardwood, snapping a 3 game winning streak , losing to the Thunder 98-80. . That loss came in their 4th straight road game, and the team as a whole looked pooched. Now with some rest and back in Texas the Rockets will be out looking for redemption, for that last loss which gives us a motivated team to back. HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS L/9 in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Note: I didn't like the way the Spurs looked last time out in a 95-88 loss to Miami. Coach Popovich essentially insulted his group calling them soft. Im not sure that will ignite them if thats truly what he thinks they are. I personally feel that Pops might have something here, as the Spurs don't seem to like to work inside. The Spurs shot a ugly 33% in that loss to the Heat, but made 13 of 32 from beyond the arc preferring to do their work from the outside. In what the lines makers think will be a closely contested affair, Ill take what I for at least now perceive to be tougher clutch team ( Rockets) HOUSTON is 18-8 ATS L/26 as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets took three of the four meetings from the Spurs last season. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 75-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Houston to cover |
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11-10-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3. Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their 29th ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College UNDER 57 | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Illinois State v. Belmont -2.5 | 89-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
This is Belmonts first game of the season, and Illinois State did not look all that impressive in their first game taking a 74-66 tilt vs Florida Gulf State. My own projections and early season power ratings suggest that Belmont should be a 7 point fav here thus we have value on a short chalk line. Yes, their are new faces in the lineup but they have all been recruited to play Rick Byrds system, and Im betting they will do just fine. Belmont has won 285 games since 2007 - the most among all NCAA Division I program from the state of Tennessee - including Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Memphis. Belmont to cover |
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11-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas +14 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 37 m | Show | |
LSU was manhandled by Alabama last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers , after their SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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11-10-18 | Florida International v. UTSA +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7). UTSA might have a negative record but are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA L/9 home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5. UTSA to cover |
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11-10-18 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech OVER 52 | 13-28 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Auburn +14.5 v. Georgia | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
Auburn (6-3, 3-3) enters this rivalry game with Georgia with a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for his betting backers going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Auburn to cover |
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11-10-18 | Morehead State v. Syracuse UNDER 134.5 | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Syracuse D, looked tremendous in their opener vs E.Washington holding their opposition to just 34 points in methodical fashion. A repeat looks to be on todays agenda vs a Morehead State team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 days. SYRACUSE is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of with a combined average of 123.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Kent State -3.5 v. Cleveland State | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Kent according to my power rankings is the superior team here today vs Cleveland State and my projections make them a 7 point favorite, thus giving us value on this cheaper than expected line. Cleveland looked over matched vs Davidson in their opener, and some glaring weaknesses make them fade material in this spot. The incoming class is highlighted by two freshmen in Anthony Roberts and DeAndre Gholston. Roberts is a Highly talented freshman that scored 22.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg at Detroit Henry Ford HS, while Gholston is a wing player that averaged 22.0 ppg and 6.0 rpg at 21st Century Charter. Play on Kent State |
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11-10-18 | Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic OVER 58 | 15-34 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | UL-Monroe v. South Alabama +7 | 38-10 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate.
Play on South Alabama to cover |
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11-10-18 | East Carolina v. Tulane UNDER 54 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Kentucky v. Tennessee +6 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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11-10-18 | Purdue v. Minnesota +12 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1 home record as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden. Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. Take the points with Minnesota to cover |
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11-10-18 | North Texas v. Old Dominion +14.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver inTravis Fulgham, that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game. Play on Old Dominion to cover |
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11-10-18 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 63 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
UCLA ha allowed 34 ppg on average on the road this season, and could easily see that number eclipsed here. Arizona has averaged 33.6 ppg at home this season, and are good bet according to my numbers to eclipse that average by a TD or more . I than expect UCLAs sometimes capable offense to add to those above mentioned outputs and also do some damage in a game that will go above the total. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.2 ppg going on the board.ARIZONA ST is 10-2 OVER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 50.5 | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
I cannot put my finger on it , but their something wrong with the Ohio State buckeyes fluidity. they just don't look like a championship calibre team despite of their 8-1 record. The most glaring issue is the Buckeyes D, but this week, Im betting that won't be a big problem from a methodical Spartans offence. Last week those issues were obvious, against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes secondary was banged up with three guys out, all are expected back this week. Meanwhile, Michigan State is very talented on the defensive side of the ball, and Im betting will make life difficult for Ohio State vaunted attack.MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 UNDER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. When these teams played here back in 2016 35 total combined points were scored and more than 50 here is not a likely scenario. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | TCU +12 v. West Virginia | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
West Virginia is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling TCU. I know the Froggies Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road . TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on TCU to cover |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 63 h 31 m | Show | |
The Fresno State Bulldogs are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding 19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season. Play on Fresno State to cover |
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11-09-18 | San Diego v. UC-Davis +5 | 76-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
SF clobbered Cal Davis in their first game of the season 76-42 , but this team is not as bad as that score might indicate and more than capable of bouncing back here in this spot vs a team that is not deep and heavily depends on the big three of Pineiro, Wright, and Carter III to do most of the heavy lifting. UC Davis will Im betting limit these three tonight on their way to cover. DAVIS is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons andis 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CAL DAVIS) - good 3 point shooting team from last season - made 37% for more of their attempts are 128-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on UC Davis |
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11-09-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Texas A&M UNDER 144.5 | 74-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Texas and Cal Irvine both put up alot of points in their first games, with Texas winning 93-82 vs Savannah State, and Cal Irvincd smasing Idaho 86-68. But from a matchup analysis trends sheet I use based on the type of systems both teams use, Im expecting a lower scoring affair here tonight. HC Kennedy in his L/18 games after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of TEXAS A&M has sen a combined average score of 139.2 ppg scored. HC Turner in 250 games in all lined games as the coach of UC-IRVINE has seen a combined average score of 136.6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-09-18 | Maryland -14 v. Navy | 78-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
LATE STEAM VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD |
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11-09-18 | NC-Greensboro +10.5 v. LSU | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
After defeating Southeastern, 94-63, in the season opener, the champions of the Southern Conference from UNCG are viable challengers vs LSU tonight and are good investment options getting points.The Spartans are bonfied winners and took 27 games last year and have won 52 over the last two seasons for Wes Miller in his eighth season as the head coach at UNCG. Last year’s team took Gonzaga to the wire before falling, 68-64, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. LSU is 9-21 ATS l/30 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points . Take he points with NC Greensboro to cover |
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11-09-18 | Rangers -110 v. Red Wings | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Rangers (7-7-1) have won four straight and the Red Wings (5-8-2) have four victories in their past five games. Both teams are playing well, but the Rangers matchup well against this Motown team according to my power rankings, and get my support here tonight. NY Rangers to win on the moneyline |
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11-09-18 | Jacksonville State v. Samford +7 | 72-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My estimations/projections make this weak line as I have Jacksonville State as 1.5 point fav instead of the linesmkaers 7 being offered. |
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11-09-18 | Wizards v. Magic +3 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Washington has quite honestly looked horrendous this season, with five of their defeats coming by double-digits, Washington is allowing 120.5 points per game and has already allowed at least 134 points three times. Just nasty numbers, and until they can get this ship righted look very much to be fade material, even against a young inconsistent Orlando group. The Magic are still trying tolearn to win, and have shown some signs of waking up of late and have won 2 of their L/3, and despite of a loss last time to Detroit as they still shot 46 percent but were some how outscored 25-16 in the fourth when they shot 5 of 16 and committed nine turnovers. These I consider to be growing pains for a team like the Magic and their more than capable of turning things around and getting us a cover here at home tonight.WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and just 20-38 ATS as a favourite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Orlando to cover |
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -5.5 | 132-133 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
The 76ers are playing their best basketball at home, and have won all 6 tilts as hosts this season, and once again look like strong candidates to get the job done again vs Charlotte and more importantly cover the number. I know the Hornets played the 76ers tough the first time they met this season, losing by a 105-103 count, but Im expecting after reassessing their opponents a wider margin of victory this time around, for the home side ,even though Charlotte is exuding confidence and saying they feel they can hang with the Sixers. PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff coming in at 10.9 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-25 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with an average point diff of 6.4 ppg. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with he average point diff clicking in at 9.5 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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11-09-18 | Bowling Green +19.5 v. St. John's | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Bowling Green according to my projections is only a 14.5 dog, here thus giving us value on this bloated line. Note:Mullin is 17-28 ATS ( after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of ST JOHNS which happened in their opener. Play on the Bowling Green to cover |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 226 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by having held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-08-18 | Hurricanes -110 v. Blackhawks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Chicago Blackhawks host the Carolina Canes at the United Center riding a five-game losing streak and are playing disheartened hockey after long time Stanley Cup winning coach Joel Quenneville was fired. A few of the veterans were disheartened by the move. With a AHL HC Colliton now in place , the Hawks might have even more problems as they adjust to a new system under a 33 year old coach that might not get a lot of respect from his team right out of the gate. Carolina has also lost 5 straight, and might not inspire bettors , but they are the more cohesive of the two teams right now overall, and won't be making a major adjustments in their system like the Hawks are expected to do. Play on Carolina to win on the moneyline |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75% TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5 with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going OVER the number. Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and 9-1 OVER vs .666 or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts. Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and 4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina. The Steelers have gone OVER 14 straight times as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game . NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Evansville v. Illinois OVER 145.5 | 60-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Linesmakers out of the gate like to over compensate on games involving Evansville, because of their methodical system. From a matchup analysis system vs system player vs player power ranking totals system I use this Total is beatable to the over. My projections place this game against Illinois in the 152 range giving us value. EVANSVILLE is 15-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 and is 27-10 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997/ Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 69 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
This Total just keeps steaming upward, as sharp money piles on the over.Wake Forest pulled an upset of a nationally ranked N.C. State team last year and now with revenge on board , I expect a motivated effort from the Wolfpack with the no mercy rule waived , which means NC State will keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish behind an offence that has averaged 35 ppg at home this season. The average output should be upped by at least 10 points according to my projections vs a Wake Forest D, that is atrocious having allowed 37.2 ppg this season. The Daemon Deacons do however, own a offence that is the polar opposite of their D, and has proven their efficiency moving the ball as they average 32.3 ppg of offence. Look for NC State to pile up the points and for Wake First to do their best Buster Douglas impersonation and come back with some lucky haymakers of their own in a game Im betting eclipses the Total. Note: WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WAKE FOREST) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 41-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Morehead State v. Connecticut -11.5 | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Morehead does not matchup well vs UConn, and have a recent history of down road efforts in the early part of the season.MOREHEAD ST is 0-6 ATS in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 17 ppg. |
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11-08-18 | Oilers v. Panthers -135 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
The Panthers haven't played since beating the Winnipeg Jets 4-2 last Friday in Finland and should be on fresh legs going against a tired Edmonton team that is playing their 4th straight road game in a 8 day stretch. FLORIDA is 22-8 ATS in home games against good offensive teams -29 shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp over the last 2 seasons. Play on Florida to win on the moneyline |
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11-08-18 | Coyotes +120 v. Flyers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
The Coyotes had their 5 game win streak end last time out to the hands of this same Philadelphia team back in Arizona a couple of nights ago by a 5-2 count. Now the Coyotes will be out to reap some revenge for that loss knowing that the road team has cashed 4 straight times in this series. Phoenix has really turned. a proverbial corner and is up trending and despite of losing to the Flyers in that above mentioned game my power rankings suggest the host is fade material here in this spot as they are still on tired legs after a 4 game road trip. Flyers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Flyers are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Flyers are 0-9 in their last 9 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Play on the Arizona Coyotes to win |
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11-08-18 | Siena v. George Washington OVER 140.5 | 69-61 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
This selection is based on a score projection algorithm trend that I have been using for close to a decade. It has converted at 62% clip over 722 game selection sample. GEORGE WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons. Play on the OVER |
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11-07-18 | Wolves v. Lakers -5 | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The LA Lakers and their super star LeBron James will primed to up their game, after being embarrassed last time out vs the Toronto Raptors at home getting blasted by DDs. James is the kind of big ego super star who hates to be beat, and Im betting he will be energized and ready to make a statement here tonight vs a struggling Minnesota team that has lost all 6 of their road games this season and on tired legs as they play their 4th away game in less than a week. Note: The Timberwolves have lost 20 of their L/21 as road dogs SU, with the average score diff clicking in at 11 ppg. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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11-07-18 | Bulls v. Pelicans UNDER 230.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Chicago enters this road game vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of offense ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. HC Gentry Pelicans in their L/21 home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19 in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. CHICAGO in its L/24 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-07-18 | Toledo +3 v. Northern Illinois | 15-38 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games. (Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack) TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on Toledo to cover |
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11-07-18 | Pistons v. Magic +2 | 103-96 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Steve Clifford called this young talented Orlando group out 3 games ago after they got smashed by the Clippers losing by 25 points at home. Since that embarrassment they have bounced back with two straight wins shooting a combined 47.7% vs the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers . I really like the energy this team has right now, and feel they have an edge in a tilt vs a Detroit Pistons team still trying to find an identity under new HC Casey. Detroit is also in major funk as is evident by their current five-game losing streak, behind some dismal shooting which clicks in at a lowly 40.5 percent, 25.3 percent on 3-pointers while averaging 105.4 points. We have two teams playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , and taking the points with the up trending MAGIC is my recommendation. Detroit has failed to cover 19 of their L/25 on the road with a +3 to -3 line. Orlando has won 4 straight at home in this series and are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall meetings. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH OVER 63 | 28-30 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami O and Ohio ,both have explosive offences. Ohio has averaged 40+ ppg on the season and Miami O has not scored less than 30 points in any of their L/6 games averaging 36.8 ppg. With that said, Im betting on a back forth affair here, that eclipses the beatable total. Ohio U won a 45-28 slugfest last season, and a repeat type combined score is a high probability outcome again. MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 71.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-07-18 | Western Carolina v. Wright State OVER 147 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
LATE STEAM- My projections estimate a combined score in the range of 150+ giving us value on the offered number. Im estimating that W.Carolina scores in the low to mid 60s on offence. Note:W CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER in road games when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 153.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-06-18 | Bucks v. Blazers UNDER 229 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland. NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. Play on the UNDER |
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11-06-18 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Wyoming -6 | 76-66 | Loss | -116 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
HC Pasternack’s in his first season at USC Santa Barbara turned this team around in a big way, going from 6-22 in 2017 to 23-9 last season, a minor miracle. But with 4 of 5 starters gone I'm betting things wont be as smooth this season. Yes key starter guard Max Heidegger is back but his supporting cast is not on his level, and well coached teams like the Pokes will be to center on him, which slow the Gauchos attack down. Meanwhile, Wyoming an explosive uptempo team behind senior guard Justin. James who was a First Team All-Mountain West selection last season averaging 18.9 points per game to be to much for the visitors to handle as this game progresses. Wyoming has won three-straight games in the series and is 3-0 all-time against UCSB in Laramie. CBBUnderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UC-SANTA BARBARA) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wyoming to cover |
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11-06-18 | Duke v. Kentucky -1 | 118-84 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
Note: Both of these teams travelled in preseason. Kentucky went to the Bahamas, Duke went to Canada. Overall Kentucky played the better teams and should be battle tested, while the Blue Devils will not be after playing lower tier Canuck hoops teams. Both Kentucky and Duke are full of 5 star recruits. But what sets these teams apart here at the beginning of this season is not the talent base, but it the experience level, where Kentucky holds the edge. The Cats will have two starters in the lineup from last season, while Duke has 4 new top tier kids in the lineup that will likely bolt to the NBA after this season including RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson. I'm betting Duke will take some time to jell, while Kentucky will find chemistry early. Kentucky to cover |
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11-06-18 | Nets +1 v. Suns | 104-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
The Nets have won 2 of their L/3 and are an up trending team, according to my power rankings. They have been getting more cohesive because the team is beginning to jell and their chemistry stabilizing because they have used the same starting five -- LeVert, Russell, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen and Jared Dudley ,in each of their first 10 games. Im betting their abilities as a unit will be to much for the Suns to handle tonight ,as it was for the 76ers in their last game.( Brooklyn beat Philly on Sunday night 122-97 as dogs). BROOKLYN is 9-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I know the Suns snapped a 7 game losing streak last time out, but are just 0-4 ATS L/4 in their followup. Note: Brooklyn has struggled with their D, at times this season, but Phoenix is not the kind of team that can take advantage of this as is evident by a 4-17 L/21 ATS mark vs struggling Defences, 106 or more point per game. BROOKLYN is 20-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. Nets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.Brooklyn is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS L/2visits tot he desert.NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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11-06-18 | Oilers v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Oilers might have a big name super star in their lineup McDavid, but they still dont do alot of scoring consistently as their 17th ranking in goals scored indicates. Their defence is actually the corner stone of their ability to compete in the NHL and they rank 14th overall. Meanwhile, TB despite of alot offensive talent , predicate their successes and failures on their ability to play solid D, and rank 8th in in goals allowed in the league. Tonight I expect a tired Oilers team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights to try to be conservative in their approach , and for TB to center its abilities on slowing McDavid, which Im betting results in a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number. |
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11-06-18 | Detroit +13 v. Western Michigan | 76-89 | Push | 0 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Western Michigan and Detroit both have just 1 starter back each, but when evaluating over all talent and placing a preseason power ranking, I feel we have some value with the visiting DD underdog. So we are on take with the jesuits. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DETROIT) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on Detroit Mercy to cover |
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11-06-18 | Indiana State +7.5 v. Ball State | 69-86 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Indiana States Jordan Barnes the best player on the court for either of these teams tonight averaged 3.7 3-pointers per game last season to rank fourth in the nation and tops in the MVC Im betting his ability to stop and pop from downtown gives tIndiana State the edge here tonight vs a Ball State side that is 0-5 ATS L/5 overall dating back to last season. Cardinals are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.Sycamores are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Mid-America.Sycamores are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Ball St..Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play on Indiana State to cover |
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11-06-18 | Michigan State v. Kansas UNDER 156 | 87-92 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Im expecting a physical game between these to teams tonight and a score that remains on the low side of the number, Izzo is 24-14 UNDER as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.Self is 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games in November games as the coach of KANSAS. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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11-05-18 | Raptors v. Jazz +2 | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Toronto despite of being offensively explosive and on a current 3 game winning streak , bump into a tough scheduling situation on the road tonight, as they are on tired legs after playing in the LA last night vs the Lakers, and with this being their 3rd game in 4nights could find the sledding tough as this game progresses in the thin air of Salt Lake City. Add to that key two way stalwart Kawhi Leonard remains less than 100% with a a ankle injury . Meanwhile, Utah despite of a current 3 game losing streak, are still a hard out behind a physical brand of hoops that matches up well vs the Raptors style of play. I know the Utah is 0-3 at home so far the campaign and their-usually sound D, has shown some early season inconsistencies, but hey this is great spot for them to come out of their current funk, and get rolling in the right direction. With that said, Im betting on Utah playing hard tonight and getting us the cover. UTAH is 27-15 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 21-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate . NBA Favorites (TORONTO) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% orless on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 6-24 ATS for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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11-05-18 | Celtics v. Nuggets -2 | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Boston (6-3) enters this Mile High City game off a loss that snapped a 4 game win streak, last time out vs Indiana on Saturday night, in a hard fought physical affair. The Celtics will of course now be primed for a bounce back. But like Mick Jagger and his Rolling Stones like to say " You Don;t Always get What you Want". The Celtics are a fine team that bases their successes and failures on playing very good two way hoops, and nothing will change tonight vs a team playing with similar mind set . Meanwhile, their opponents the (8-1, 5-0 Home) Denver Nuggets are also a team that is now sold on playing strong defence and being aggressive offensively. Right now both team are playing similar basketball, with the difference maker Im betting coming via the Nuggets strong home court advantage and the Nuggets up-trending ability to guard against the the Downtown Trey. Note:Denver's 3-point defense was last in the league in 2017-18 but has improved significantly in that area in the first nine games of this season. Boston takes 37.3 shots from 3-point range, third in the NBA, and has launched a total of 101 in it last two games. Boston is a fine team, and must be respected ,but for tonight, they go on my temporary fade list. DENVER is 34-17 ATS L/51 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite . NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-41 L/5 seasons for go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average point differential coming by 5.2 ppg. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 90 points or less are 65-8 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 11.8 ppg. TEAM 109.7 Opp 97.9 Play on Denver to cover |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys OVER 39.5 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their defence to try to be competitive, but they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board. Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board. NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40. Play on the OVER |
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11-05-18 | Bulls v. Knicks -2.5 | 116-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
I have watched both these teams play this season, and like the vibe of the Knicks as compared to the inconsistent tone of the Bulls. That 's an old school and simplistic way of looking at teams , but from past experiences can bring to light an extremely accurate perspective on certain types of matchups. Its like letting your sense of smell ,indicate if something stinks or not. I dont mean to be derogatory , as the Bulls have been competitive , but coach Hoiberg cant seem to keep this young groups flow going for a full 48 minutes. My power rankings also agree with my assessments, thus giving the home team NYK the edge in this spot play between two teams that do not inspire bettors. Note from a SRS perspective Chicago ranks 26th at -7.29, while Knicks rank 20th at -3.13. Defensively the Knicks are ranked 10th in the league, which gives them an edge vs a side with the 23rd ranked Off. SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average The Knicks have won their L/2 home games as chalk this season vs Atlanta and Brooklyn and are playing another team they matchup well against. CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a struggling team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 2-23 L/5 seasons for a go against SU 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 6.9 ppg. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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11-04-18 | Raptors -1 v. Lakers | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Let me start off by saying that the Raptors are a talented disciplined team with or without the often injured Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. So me choosing the Raptors to win this game is not based on on him playing tonight, even though reports out of Toronto say that he practiced yesterday and looked fine, and is scheduled to have tomorrow night off as the Raptors prepare to play back to back games, but should play tonight if he so chooses. With that said, look for the leadership of the Raptors Kyle Lowry who leads the NBA at 11.2 assists per game and who has reached double digits in assists in a career-high seven straight games to be the key difference maker here today, against a ruttlerless, Lakers team that has talent, but no real system . With that said, in game that is essentially a pickem Im betting the Raptors out work a Lakers team that despite of resting key players like James in the later stages of last nights game will still have a tired bench, and at a disadvantage vs a deep team that is dangerous and knows how to win. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Raptors are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 25-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 227 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3) and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort. I now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total. Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg. WASHINGTON's L/50 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-04-18 | Rams +2 v. Saints | 35-45 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 26 m | Show | |
The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points. NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 Note:8-0 NFL teams like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980, with none of them getting underdog lines. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 59.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show | |
During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts with Totals line of 58 or more points They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored . None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. Play OVER |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more on the road, the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-04-18 | Jets +3 v. Dolphins | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 27 m | Show | |
The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a 20-12 loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again. Dolphins are also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 15 m | Show | |
The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North. |
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11-03-18 | BYU +13 v. Boise State | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 61 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos. Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. Play on BYU to cover |
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11-03-18 | Hurricanes +120 v. Golden Knights | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Vegas Knights are finally starting to play like an expansion team, after surprising the hockey world with a run to the Stanley cup Finals last season. But after tweeking their lineup the same chemistry and magic they had has somehow vanished, especially of late, as is evident by losing 4 of their L/5 games. Tonight I expect things won't get much better vs a Carolina team, that despite of not playing very well themselves are a hard working group that matchup well against the Knights according to my power rankings and cross reference system vs system matchup analysis. Note: Vegas key cogs Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny have been out with injuries and Nate Schmidt has been unavailable due to a suspension. CAROLINA is 12-1 ATS against struggling teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons and is 13-2 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams against the money line (CAROLINA) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling team (25-40%) are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NHL team against the money line (CAROLINA) - after 3 straight close losses by 1 goal against opponent after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored are 26-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to win on the moneyline |
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11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets -4.5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets are playing at a high level at the moment, and look hell bent on getting to the play offs this season, behind a talented group. Their off one days rest but should be very fresh after beating Cleveland last time out as no starter played more than 28 minutes in the game. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Utah Jazz are a banged up group that is on tired legs as they play on back to back nights and 3rd game in 4 nights, and their 5th game of the week. Utah is a fine team, but the energy they have exerted over a short period of time Im betting effects their performance tonight. UTAH is 16-29 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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11-03-18 | Stanford +10 v. Washington | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 61 h 2 m | Show | |
Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team) STANFORD is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover |
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11-03-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs -3.5 | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The Pelicans a team on a ugly 4 game losing skid and on tired legs prepare to play their third game in four nights and for the fourth game of a five-contest road trip tonight against a Spurs team that has impressed me with their new look, as key cogs Aldridge, DeRozen, continue to play at a high level. Im have alot of respect for Spurs coach Popovich and I'm not a big believer in Pelicans coach Gentry;s wreck-less take no prisoners run and gun system. With Pelicans Star forward Anthony Davis at less than 100% with various nagging injuries, Im betting against the Pelicans here tonight in the Alamo city. Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.Spurs are 30-8 straight up against Pelicans since 1996 in San Antonio. San Antonio to cover |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | 29-0 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 14 m | Show | |
Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog. LSU is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LSU to cover |
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11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech +24 v. Mississippi State | 3-45 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile, LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC Skip Holtz is 16-3 ATS as a road dog when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons. CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Tech to cover |
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11-03-18 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 207 | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Indiana is a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg. Play UNDER |
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11-03-18 | Charlotte v. Tennessee -20.5 | 3-14 | Loss | -108 | 117 h 59 m | Show | |
Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover Projected score: Tennessee 44 Charlotte 9 |