Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-08-21 | Nets v. Nuggets UNDER 231.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
Denver has the 9th ranked ppg defense in the NBA and owns the 26th ranked pace. So needless to say they are fairly methodical in their approach considering their successes. Nothing will change tonight at home in the Mile High city against a talented Nets group that despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches knows playing a better brand of defense as the post season approaches is very important. With that said, Im betting that this game will see some special attention to playing good transitional hoops which will reflect a muted response on the score board then the pundits might expect. BROOKLYN is 8-1 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 24-11 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored in those 35 titls. DENVER is 10-1 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Houston has been opening up of late, and are off a big time back and forth tilt vs Milwaukee last time out losing by a 141-131 count. However today Im betting on regression from the Rockets offense and energy depletion to rare its ugly head as they play their 5th game in 8 nights. Meanwhile, Utah is off a hard fought tilt vs Denver last night, and will also find them selves playing on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which Im betting produces a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 23-11-1 in Rockets last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. HOUSTON is 25-6 UNDER L/31 vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 22-12 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored. UTAH is 13-5 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Rockets +15.5 v. Jazz | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
The Jazz are off a hard fought affair vs the Nuggets last time out and are now in an emotional letdown state and lacking overall energy and Im sure in some ways they are over looking the Rockets. With that said, there is value taking points here with a Houston side that is 11-1 as visiting underdogs of 4 points or more more vs .700 or better opposition. Meanwhile, the Jazz are just 1-5 ATS L/6 after facing the Nuggets. HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS ( in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBAFavorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing on back-to-back days are 15-37 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rockets to cover |
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05-08-21 | Spurs v. Blazers UNDER 233 | 102-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Spurs are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game in 7 days and off a game last night. That will effect their pace, vs a Portland side that has allowed their opposition 109 points or less in 4 of their L/6 games. The Spurs are 0-14 UNDER L/14 off a game as a favorite in which they committed fewer than 15 fouls. Under is 7-2 in Trail Blazers last 9 games as a home favorite. Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 home games. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 60-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Diego Ferreira v. Gregor Gillespie -157 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Gregor “The Gift” Gillespieis 13-1 in his career with his last fight ending in a KO vs Kevin Lee.He has six knockouts and five submissions to his credit in his 13 wins and is a serious fighter who deserves respect as mid range favorite vs Diego Ferreria . Gillespie to win |
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05-08-21 | Grizzlies v. Raptors +5.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Raptors who are 4-0 ATS L/4 may no long er be a championship calibre side, but they are still no pushovers, and are more than capable of being competitive tonight vs the visiting Grizzlies even with injuries and key players out. Grizzlies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Toronto is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series as hosts. Grizzlies are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Nurse is 57-35 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to cover |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves -163 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Phillies starter VELASQUEZ is 1-6 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.552. The Phillies are 0-9 L/9 on the ML past the first game of a series as a road dog after they scored 6+ runs last game. MLB Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 13-46 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Braves to win |
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05-08-21 | Wizards v. Pacers +3.5 | 133-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Washington continues to play an all out brand of wide open hoops, but after two exhausting game in a row vs Milwaukee and and Toronto Im betting the Wizards hit the wall here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. The Wizards did beat Indiana 154-141 when they played last week, but the Pacers stayed competitive in that tilt, and are more than capable of upending their opponent in the rematch. The Pacers are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in Indiana. Wizards are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pacers to cover |
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05-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -135 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly(RHP2-2, 5.79 ERA, 24 SO)is coming off a three-day stint on the injured list for what he said was a COVID-protocol issue. He could be rusty weak or both and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs the NYM offense. Considering the Mets current good form that has seen them win 6 of 8 and the Dbacks struggling form that has seen them lose 4 straight it will be an easy decision to back the home side in this spot play. Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings in New York. Diamondbacks are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the NY Mets to win |
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05-08-21 | White Sox -155 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
White sox starter Lance Lynn(RHP2-1, 1.82 ERA, 29 SO) earned the victory in his return from the injured list, working five innings during his first start since April 15. Lynn allowed three runs and had a streak of 66 batters faced without a walk come to an end and looks healthy enough to be even more proficient here in this tilt. Meanwhile, the Royals starter Daniel Lynch(LHP0-0, 5.79 ERA, 3 SO will make his second career start, after his MLB debut on Monday against the Indians. The Royals' top pitching prospect was tagged for three runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings with three strikeouts, and while looking like he has some solid stuff will still be in over his head here vs a Pale hose batting order that likes to dismantle lefties. CHI WHITE SOX are 20-1 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter. CHI WHITE SOX are 24-6 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. White Sox are 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas City.Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. KANSAS CITY is 0-11 against the money line off 2 straight home losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, ice cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 5 games are 72-35 L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on the Chicago White Sox to win |
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05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers -10 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The 76ers now on a 7 game win streak will be paying attention here tonight, as they are still looking to secure top seed in the east. Add to that revenge for a ugly DD loss to the Pistons in the Motown the last time these teams met and you now have a situation that bodes well for a beatdown scenario. The Seventysixers are 16-0-1 ATS/16-0 SU as a favorite after being outscored in the paint by at least 6 points last game. The Pistons are 0-15-3 ATS /0-18 SU as a dog coming off a 10+ point win. DETROIT is 1-10 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Play on the 76ers to cover |
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05-08-21 | Mariners -104 v. Rangers | 8-9 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas starter Kohei Arihara(RHP2-3, 5.76 ERA, 14 SO)After being scratched from his last start with a callus on the middle finger of his pitching hand, he returns to the mound at less than 100 percent healthy. The Japanese pitcher has posted two straight losses. He enters the matchup with a 5.76 ERA on the year. According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings he does not matchup well vs the Mariners offense and is fade material here. .Mariners are 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. Play on Seattle to win |
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05-08-21 | Rays v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite. Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. |
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05-08-21 | Rays -131 v. A's | 3-6 | Loss | -131 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rays starter Tyler Glasnow(RHP4-1, 2.06 ERA, 64 SO0has pitched like an ace all season, working at least six innings in six of his seven outings -- all of them quality starts. Facing the A's on April 28, he struck out 10 and allowed only seven baserunners in seven scoreless innings. GLASNOW is 10-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GLASNOW is 1-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.000..Meanwhile, The Athletics are 0-8 L/ on the ML when Frankie Montas starts as a dog when they won in his last start.
TAMPA BAY is 21-9 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasonsRays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and are 9-2 L/11 on the road. Play on the TB Rays to win |
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05-07-21 | Knicks v. Suns -6 | 105-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
NY has played some great hoops behind a fantastic work ethic, and chemistry, but the young Suns have matured quickly and have stood up to some of the best teams in the league and prevailed. I know the Knicks are out looking to avenge a 118-110 home loss to the Suns back on April 26th in NY city but my power rankings suggest the Suns are the superior side, and in most circumstances would prevail in a matchup with the Knicks. Also this is NYKs fourth straight road game and they looked pooped last time out in Denver losing 113-97, most probably because of the high octane effort they consistently put out. Meanwhile, the Suns after a night off where they looked asleep at the wheel in a ugly 135-103 loss to Atlanta will be primed to bounce back. Note: NYK is just 1-5 ATS vs Pac division opposition as 8 point underdogs or less. The Suns are 5-0 ATS/SU L/5 in this series.PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Play on Phoenix to win /cover |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
Back on April 7th the Blues took out the Knights by a 3-1 score and now Vegas ha revenge on board and will be motivated to get redemption. VEGAS is 17-2 against the money line revenging a road loss versus opponent by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. VEGAS is 23-4 ATS vs struggling defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game this season.VEGAS is 20-4 ATS against struggling power play killing teams - opp score on 17.5% or better of chances this season. Play on Vegas to win |
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05-07-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Eduardo Rodriguez(LHP4-0, 4.18 ERA, 31 SO)is coming off a shaky outing . Facing the Rangers, he allowed eight hits and four runs over five innings. Lacking his usual velocity and command, he was lifted after 67 pitches and he looks vulnerable here to a down performance which adds credence to this total being eclipsed. Meanwhile, Harvey the Orioles starter despite of some decent efforts does not matchup well against this BoSox batting order according to my pitcher vs offence power rankings. RODRIGUEZ is 13-0 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) RODRIGUEZ is 11-0 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)RODRIGUEZ is 10-1 OVER as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Play OVER |
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05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Pale Hose starter Carlos Rodon(LHP4-0, 0.72 ERA, 36 SO) is on fire . The southpaw threw a no-hitter against the Indians, allowing seven hits over four starts and 25 innings overall. He struck out 36, including a career-high 12 vs. Detroit and enters this game in top form and momentum, which Im betting will see the Royals do limited offensive damage here which will aid in a lower scoring affair. KANSAS CITY is 17-3 UNDER against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. KELLER the Royals starter is 16-3 UNDER against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Play on the under
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05-07-21 | Pirates v. Cubs -148 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Pirates starter Trevor Cahill(RHP1-3, 7.40 ERA, 24 SO)gave up four of his five runs in Saturday's 12-5 loss in the first inning. The right-hander has had an up-and-down start to the 2021 season: three outings of five or more runs allowed and two outings with one run allowed. His current overall form makes him look vulnerable to me, which has me backing the Cubs here this afternoon.Note: Pirates offense is struggling mightily on the road this season averaging just 3.1 rpg via ugly .201 BA.
PITTSBURGH is 0-12 against the money line in road games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 3-24 against the money line in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season-NL, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts are 57-17 L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts are 80-28 L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 4 straight games are 15-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago Cubs to win |
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05-06-21 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency , and have failed to eclipse the 99 point threshold in 4 of their L/6 overall while Golden State despite of super star Curry in the lineup are ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency. When these teams played back in the middle of April the Warriors put 147 points on the board vs the Thunder, and now in the return matchup Ok City will out be looking to slow this game down to a crawl which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Note: In that game where the Warriors pounded 147 points on the board the Thunder shot just over 25% from the Field and just 56% from the charity stripe. Advantage under.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored in those tilts.OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.2 ppg. These teams have gone under 10 straight times here in Oakland. Play UNDER |
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05-06-21 | Hawks v. Pacers +6 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Atlanta played a hard fought game against a top tier opposition ( Phoenix) last night and are now on tired legs and in emotional letdown spot after recording an all out impressive 135-103 victory. The Hawks never let up and played all out, because of their obvious respect for their opponent which will see them Im betting start slowly tonight vs the Pacers. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.ATLANTA is 24-41 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 season. Play on Indiana to cover |
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05-06-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1 | 131-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
The Wizards played a back forth tilt vs the Bucks last night and lost by a 135-134 count and will now both be on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which makes them susceptible to a down performance vs a Raptors side that has won 8 straight meetings in this series SU. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Play on the Toronto Raptors to win |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
The Royals are 9-0 on the ML when their starter Danny Duffy starts as a home favorite when he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start and the Royals won.DUFFY is 8-2 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)CLEVELAND is 7-15 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 3 seasons. Duffys last two starts vs the Indians were shutout wins . Rinse and repeat. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-06-21 | Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP2-0, 1.80 ERA, 40 SO)has delivered five consecutive quality starts, the sort of stability that's crucial for a team fighting so many injury issues. He's allowed only one earned run in 18 career innings against the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler(RHP2-2, 3.49 ERA, 41 SO) suffered from some bad defense in a long first inning Saturday against the Mets, but he recovered and did not allow another for six more innings. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 2.90 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers. Look for both these strong hurlers to long and strong today and for this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Brewers starter WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.3 rpg scored.
The Brewers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 when Brandon Woodruff starts when the bullpen allowed more runs than he did in his last start. Play UNDER |
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05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -121 | 9-4 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
After losing 6 straight to the Jays the As have come back and won the last two meetings and Im betting the third in a row comes today behind the arm of Bassist. Chris Bassitt (RHP 2-2, 3.93 ERA, 36 SO) is racking up strikeouts at a high rate, recording at least eight punch-outs in each of his last three starts.The Blue Jays are 0-16 SU since May 04, 2019 in not the first game of a series as a road dog after they allowed 6 or fewer hits. OAKLAND is 9-1 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. OAKLAND is 15-3 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. Play on the As to win |
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05-05-21 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 242 | 134-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Washingtons offense remains consistent and explosive and there have been few to any regressions after big offensive outputs like the one they just had against Indiana winning a 151-141 slugfest. The Wizards rank 1st in pace 4th in ppg offense and 29th in ppg defense, Needless to say their style of hoops bases its successes and failures on run and gun basketball with a no prisoners attitude on display and nothing will change here tonight vs a Bucks team that can put a bucketload full of points on the board as well, via a offense that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the NBA , behind the 3rd ranked pace and 21st ranked ppg. defense . After playing last night, the Bucks will be on tired legs, so Washington will push with extreme prejudice, which Im betting leads to an all out back and forth tilt that will see very little defense played. First team to 130 points wins. WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.2 ppg going on the score board. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this total .Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-0 in Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-05-21 | Grizzlies -3 v. Wolves | 139-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis has struggled of late, losing 4 of their L/5 while Minnesota with Towns back int he lineup are playing much better winning 5 of their L/6. However despite of the divergence in fortunes recently the Grizzlies matchup well vs the Wolves, according to my power rankings and deserve respect here as short favs. Minnesota ranks 26th in the league SRS -6,71 , while Memphis is ranked 13th in SRS, with a +0.96 mark. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. MEMPHIS is 11-3 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Grizzlies to cover |
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05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 227.5 | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Atlanta ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency while the Phoenix Suns rank 7th in offensive efficiency and from a head to head stand point Im betting on that efficiency and lack of it on the Hawks part will lead us over the total in this contest. ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 233.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average 232.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 84-54 OVER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 56-35 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +115 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Minnesota beat the Vegas 6-5 a couple of nights ago here and are viable underdogs to cash two in a row vs the Golden Knights. Note: Wild are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Wild enter this game in top form and are 9-2 in their last 11 overall and deserve respect here as home underdogs. MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS in home games against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game this season. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NHL Road teams against the money line (VEGAS) - revenging 4 or more losses versus opponent in last 2 years, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 5-45 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate. Golden Knights are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Play on Minnesota Wild to win |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
The Nationals went into their bullpen yesterday and will be a little wiped today leaving them susceptible to being beaten up on offensively by the Braves. The Nationals are 11-0 OVER L/11 when Erick Fedde starts after they used 5+ pitchers yesterday. Atlantas starter FRIED is 14-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored.WASHINGTON is 17-6 OVER against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Play on the OVER |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Dbacks starter Luke Weaver(RHP1-2, 4.91 ERA, 23 SO) was not sharp in his last start against the Rockies, as he allowed three runs over four innings in a no-decision. Over his past three starts, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and Im betting he will be cannon fodder again today vs a under rated and sometimes explosive Miami batting order. Meanwhile, Miami starter Pablo Lopez despite of some good numbers, does not matchup well vs a Arizona batting order that is averaging 5.4 rpg, and has show spark of late putting 21 runs on the board in their L/3 tilts. Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. MIAMI is 93-69 OVER in night games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 9.3 rpg scored. Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. |
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05-05-21 | Orioles +111 v. Mariners | 6-0 | Win | 111 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
John Means (LHP 3-0, 1.70 ERA, 38 SO) was dominant once again in his last outing, beating the A's with seven innings of two-run ball. The lefty ace owns a 1.70 ERA across 6 starts this season and is a value proposition at this price. Mariners are 13-27 in their last 40 games vs. a left-handed starter.Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record./ BALTIMORE is 10-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Play on Baltimore Orioles on the ml |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9 | 100-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
LA has taken a breather from their heavy schedule of late with a few days off and will be fresh and ready to get back on track after suffering 3 straight losses. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game against quality opposition, which makes them susceptible to exhaustion as this tilt progresses. LA CLIPPERS are 10-0 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with the ppg dif clicking in at just over 22 ppg. The Raptors are 0-10-1 ATS L/11 coming off a win where they scored 15+ points more expected. ( that happened vs the Lakers) Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Golden State played last night against this same Pelicans side and beat them 123-108. Both sides looked motivated, but some exhaustion issues were evident. Im betting both these sides, will once again have a hard time finding their legs here in this late season battle and the combined score will end up on the lower side of the offered total. Golden State has gone under in 6 of their L/8 while New Orleans has gone under in 5 of their L/6. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 56-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. |
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05-04-21 | Nets v. Bucks -116 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bucks have proved they can stand tall against sides like Brooklyn and Im betting they can handle them here again tonight. Note: The Bucks are 21-10 SU at home and this is where they play their best hoops. MILWAUKEE is 31-16 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 11-28-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-11 L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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05-04-21 | White Sox -102 v. Reds | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Pale Hose starter Cease threw his first complete game and shutout Thursday vs. Detroit and has momentum entering this game. The White Sox are 13-0 on the ML L/13 since the 2005 season as a road favorite off a home loss where they never led. White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. CINCINNATI is 3-10 against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 3 seasons. Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 home games. Play on the White Sox to win |
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05-04-21 | Islanders v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
The Islanders blew a 2-1 lead going into the third period last time out, and lost 4-2 to the lowly Buffalo Sabres. Isles HC Barry Trotz was furious after that effort, and tonight Im betting on a bounce back effort that will center around the Isles top tier D, that will be in preparation mode for the play offs.
Play UNDER |
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05-04-21 | Braves v. Nationals +118 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Nationals starter Joe Ross(RHP2-1, 4.64 ERA, 18 SO)Ross threw six innings of one-run ball against the Mets in his last outing on April 24 and he gets my support here today.
WASHINGTON is 16-3 against the money line rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 13-24 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. NBA underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, with a rested bullpen - threw 2 innings or less in each of the last 2 games are 27-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 49-16 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play on Washington to win |
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05-04-21 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Phillies starter Aaron Nola(RHP2-1, 3.11 ERA, 39 SO) has loved to face the Brewers in his career going 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee. Im betting he notches another W, here or at least contributes his team getting a victory in this spot play. Note:The Phillies are 12-0 on the ML when Aaron Nola starts as a home -140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.Brewers are 6-16 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play on Philadelphia to win |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays +110 v. A's | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Blue Jays starter Steven Matz(LHP4-1, 4.00 ERA, 27 SO) is coming off his first rough outing of the season, but opened the year 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA prior to that. Look for the lefty to bounce back after an excellent month of April, as he should be fresh after throwing just 80 pitches last time out and he gets my support here in this spot play as an underdog. note: Matz in 3 road starts owns a 2.60 ERA and a 3-0 record. Meanwhile, As starter Frankie Montas(RHP)2-2, 6.20 ERA, 25 SO is struggling entering this game a is evident by going 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA over his last two starts. This will be his first career start against Toronto. Toronto is 13-2 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 25-11 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Blue Jays to win |
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05-03-21 | Knicks +3.5 v. Grizzlies | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
NYK is the real deal and continue to prove it during a 12-1 SU ATS L/13 run. Meanwhile, Memphis has lost 3 of his L/4 tilts and despite of being viable side, they are not currently in top form and are 14-17 L/31 at home this season and wobbly favorites. NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 23-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Knicks are 17-0 ATS /15-2 SU after allowing at least 50 points in the paint last game. the two losses came by 2 and 3 points. Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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05-03-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +115 | 5-6 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 5-0-1 all-time against the Golden Knights at Xcel Energy Center with the lone loss coming in a shootout on Oct. 6, 2018.The Wild, who went 3-0 against the Golden Knights during Vegas' Stanley Cup finalist season in 2017-18, also have won the last four meetings with Vegas this season, including a sweep of their two games in Las Vegas on April 1 and 3. Rinse and repeat on a value line. Minnesota is 16-2-1 in its last 19 games as hosts. Play on the Minnesota Wild |
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05-03-21 | Mets v. Cardinals -119 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Cards starter Adam Wainwright(RHP0-3, 4.08 ERA, 32 SO)Despite being put on the COVID IL, Wainwright is set to start against the Mets to begin a seven-game homestand. Wainwright is winless in five starts this season, sporting an 0-3 record and a 4.08 ERA. However, he deserves better than those numbers suggest and gets my support here today. The Cardinals are 8-0 on the ML when Adam Wainwright starts when he went 8 or more innings in his last start and the Cardinals lost. NY METS are 7-22 against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts are 52-91 L/24 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate. Play on the Cards to win
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05-03-21 | Warriors +2 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are off three straight road games with the last a grueling OT affair vs the Wolves. Now in a physical and emotional letdown state the Pelicans will have their hands full with a Golden State side that needs wins badly. NEW ORLEANS is 6-14 ATS as a home favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 33-13 L/46 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season . NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 7-31 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 30-6 SU/ 30-5-1 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover |
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05-03-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Wizards | 141-154 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Indiana were clipped 132-124, as 7-point home dogs the last time these two sides met in late March. Now in revenge mode I expect the Pacers to be motivated and to play a strong competitive game. Note: The Wizards are 1-12-2 ATS at home in this series when the Pacers are out looking to get even while the Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SUATS L/5 in this series when in revenge mode for a 7 or more point defeat. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are just 46-102 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 210 | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 9 of their L/11 overall and with nothing left to play for should play looser and just look to pad stats. 'Im betting on Detroit also opening up in the same fashion and for this tilt to eclipse the total. Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as an underdog. Over is 21-10-1 in Pistons last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 8-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 233.2 ppg scored. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. Play OVER |
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05-03-21 | Stars v. Panthers -140 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas Stars, who end the season with seven straight road games have not done well in the first two losing-- both by shutouts and in their current form are fade material. DALLAS is 6-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Stars are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Stars are 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog. Stars are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. FLORIDA is 9-0 against the money line after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games this season.Panthers are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. Play on Florida to win |
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05-02-21 | 76ers -6 v. Spurs | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Im not a big proponent of laying points with a road side, but their are matchup instances where I feel comfortable enough to do so and this is one of those situations. It must be noted that San Antonio comes home after a grueling hard fought 4 game road trip that concluded with a 143-140 loss to the Celtics in Boston and now exhausted with this being their 8th game in 14 days and in a emotional letdown situation are susceptible to down effort. SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is i15-31 ATS after a combined score of 245 points or more. SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games this season. SAN ANTONIO is 4-12 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more. are 26-1 with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 ppg. NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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05-02-21 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 217.5 | 122-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Blazers -1 v. Celtics | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a big game for both sides, but my power rankings suggest the Blazers matchup well here. The Blazers lost by 1 point the last time these teams played, but with redemption as an added motivational factor the Blazers are the right side. Note: PORTLAND is 26-13 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-1 L/24 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Portland Blazers to win |
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05-02-21 | Rockies +131 v. Diamondbacks | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez(RHP1-0, 3.60 ERA, 12 SO)In three starts, González has posted a 3.00 ERA with his pitch-to-contact, ground-ball style. In his only previous career start at Chase Field on Aug. 19, 2019, González allowed two runs over six innings in a no-decision and gets my support here today vs the Dbacks on a value ML. Meanwhile, Merril Kelly faced the Rockies earlier this year and allowed six earned runs in six innings at Coors Field and according to my power rankings does not matchup well against them. ARIZONA is 0-9 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 5-22 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Diamondbacks are 11-24 in their last 35 vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Diamondbacks are 7-19 in their last 26 during game 4 of a series. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ARIZONA) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 43-64 L/24 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado to win |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks -1.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Today I waited to see if Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo would play and he is listed as probable. The last time these top tier teams played the Nets took a closely contested 125-123 victory , but that was with Harden in the lineup. I know the pundits love the Nets, but their biggest weakness remains their defense that allows struggle 117.2 points per 100 possessions and Im betting they are vulnerable in this spot. Meanwhile, The Bucks own a w a +5.9 point differential per 100 possessions, 5th best in the league and are top 10 defense that deserves respect especially here at home. Note: Nets: 1-5 away against Central division sides. Bucks: 6-0 as conference home favs vs .600 or better opponents. NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 54-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 243.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Indians v. White Sox -158 | 5-0 | Loss | -158 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Indians starter Zach Plesac(RHP1-3, 5.81 ERA, 18 SO)For the third time in his last four starts, Plesac will face the White Sox. And in each of his first two outings against Chicago, he permitted six runs on seven hits and Im betting he will actually regress here vs a side that is now very accustomed with his stuff. Note: Plesac in 2 road starts has recorded a ugly 10.79 ERA. The White Sox are 28-0 L/28 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 18-71 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA of 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 6-33 L/24 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate. Play on White Sox to win |
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05-02-21 | Royals v. Twins -193 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Royals starter Brad Keller(RHP2-2, 9.00 ERA, 13 SO) pushed through back-to-back walks in the first inning against the Tigers on Monday to log six frames for his deepest start of the year. He worked around eight hits for two runs and struck out two, needing 103 pitches in the win. He enters this game exhausted which is not a good omen for him to lower his ugly 9.00 ERA. The Royals are 0-13 L/13 on the ML as a road dog coming off a road game in which they won by 5+ runs. MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 12-45 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on the Minnesota Twins to win |
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05-02-21 | Astros -123 v. Rays | 4-5 | Loss | -123 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Astros starter Cristian Javier(RHP3-0, 0.87 ERA, 26 SO) enters the game on a 17-inning scoreless streak, which has spanned three starts. He threw five scoreless innings April 8 and April 22, and threw a career-high seven scoreless, with two hits, on Tuesday against the Mariners. Solid hurler deserves respect and the ability to go deep makes the Astros a solid wagering opportunity. Rays starter HILL is 0-6 against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)The Astros are 10-0 L/10 on the ML when Cristian Javier starts after he averaged more than 3.9 pitches per batter in his last start. Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Play on Houston to win |
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05-02-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Cards starter MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings in his career. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Wil Crowe (RHP)0-0, 3.86 ERA, 5 SO has been effective in preventing runs. He allowed four hits and two walks, but only one run in his last start and Im betting will do his part here in helping the combined score of todays game remaining on the low side of the total. The Cards took out the Pirates yesterday by a 12-5 count and in the past this has signaled what has been a low scoring affair in the followup. ST LOUIS is 11-0 UNDER after scoring 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves +4 | 140-136 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
When Karl Anthony Towns is in the Minnesota Wolves lineup this Wolves team seem to find cohesion and chemistry and must not be underestimated. I know the Wolves beat the Pelicans the last time they met 135-105, and now the visiting side is looking for revenge, but unfortunately the matchup stats from the last clash tells me a comparatively different story. Like Mick Jagger said in his iconic song, You don't always get what you want. Advantage Minnesota. NEW ORLEANS is 12-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Play on the Minnesota Wolves |
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05-01-21 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 208 | 124-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over. MIAMI is 10-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pistons +7.5 v. Hornets | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Pistons were dealing with some fatigue issues recently but now with a couple of days rest Im betting they are ready to compete again, especially against an inconsistent side like Charlotte who according to my projections does not deserve to be this big a favorite. Note: The Pistons also have the added incentive and motivation to get revenge for 105-102 loss to the Hornets on March 11. DETROIT is 21-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. DETROIT is 14-2 ATS off a home loss this season.( The Pistons lost last time out and have proven to be a big bounce back side to back when that happens) Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Road teams (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 114-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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05-01-21 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
The Islanders will look to clinch their third straight trip to the playoffs Saturday, when they host the New York Rangers in the finale of a home-and-home series in Uniondale, N.Y. As usual it will be Barry Trotz play off style defensive game plan that takes center stage which offers value for an under wager. NY RANGERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. NY RANGERS are 5-0 UNDER off a home loss by 2 goals or more this season. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (NY RANGERS) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the 2nd half of the season are 85-39 L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Red Sox -178 v. Rangers | 6-8 | Loss | -178 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Red Sox starting southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)(4-0, 3.52 ERA, 26 SO )has been the rotation's most consistent arm, having gone at least five innings in each of his four starts, reaching seven in his last outing vs. the Mariners. In four career starts vs. Texas, Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA. He gets my support again in this spot. RODRIGUEZ is 17-1 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Red Sox are 11-0 on the ML when Eduardo Rodriguez starts on the road after he pitched a quality start in his last start. BOSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings are 11-52 L/24 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (BOSTON) - starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, ice cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 5 games are 72-23 L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Bosox to win |
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05-01-21 | Cardinals -131 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Jack Flaherty (RHP4-0, 3.18 ERA, 27 SO)The ace of the Cardinals' staff is in top form of late , with a 4-0 record, a 1.50 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .475 over his past four outings. Flaherty went 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Pirates last season, with 17 strikeouts against two walks and gets my support in this spot play. FLAHERTY is 6-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.895. ST LOUIS is 9-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. Cardinals are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Pittsburgh. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games of 101-38 L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on St.Louis Cardinals to win |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Chicago's starting pitchers have a 9.55 ERA and have allowed 34 hits, including nine home runs, as the club has gone 1-4 to start a seven-game trip. Jake Arrieta allowed seven runs and three homers over 3 1/3 innings Friday and now Davies who owns a ugly 12.15 ERA in his L/4 starts looks to be cannon fodder vs a Reds team that has averaged 7.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile Reds starter Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) has lasted more than five innings just once in five starts, and opponents are batting .311 in his three home starts. With a Reds bullpen that owns a nasty 6.49 ERA at home Im betting that even an inconsistent Cubs offence will have a positive output in this spot. This Im betting leads to a combined score that eclipses this total.CHICAGO CUBS are 12-2 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games.Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -169 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Indians starter Triston McKenzie (RHP 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 23 SO) is winless in three starts this season as he's trying to find his command of the strike zone. The 23-year-old has allowed 14 walks and struck out 23 hitters in 16 2/3 innings this season. McKenzie has given up four home runs, with two coming in his last start against the Yankees and is fade material in his current form. Meanwhile, Pale Hose starter Lance Lynn (RHP 1-1, 0.92 ERA, 27 SO)has been sidelined retroactive to April 17 with a right trapezius strain. But after the White Sox have taken their time with his recovery early in the season, he figures to be back in this series vs. Cleveland.The White Sox are 27-0 L/27 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game. CHI WHITE SOX are 38-15 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. LARUSSA is 65-27 against the money line in home games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game in all games he has managed since 1997. MLB team (CHI WHITE SOX) - good AL offensive team (5.1 or better runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or worse ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the White sox to win |
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05-01-21 | Royals +125 v. Twins | 11-3 | Win | 125 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Danny Duffy(LHP3-1, 0.39 ERA, 27 SO)has been a model of consistency this season. He's coming off another scoreless outing -- his third in four starts this year -- when he struck out eight with no walks in five innings against the Tigers on Sunday and gets my support here in this spot play vs the Twins who have proven very inconsistent offensively this season averaging just .247 BA vs Leftys this season and 3.6 rpg. Meanwhile, Twins tarter Matt Shoemaker(RHP)1-2, 5.49 ERA, 14 SO will make his fifth start of the season in hopes of evening his record. Shoemaker has taken the loss in his last two starts, as he's allowed a combined seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also recorded two strikeouts and issued five walks in those outings and his velocity is a problem marker. Here against a Royals side averaging 5.2 rpg vs righties the Twins are in trouble.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Twins are 0-8 L/8 on the ML coming off a home game in which they held a multiple-run lead which was the case yesterday. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or worse ) against a top level starting pitcher (ERA 3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 47-74 L/24 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas city to win |
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04-30-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Suns | 100-121 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
We have two top tier sides ready to do battle here tonight in Phoenix . However, one team stands out in this matchup as being superior and also being very motivated with double revenge on board and that side is the Utah Jazz who own the leagues best scoring margin at +9.5 PPG and 2nd best in DFG percentage. Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Utah Jazz own the leagues best SRS mark at 9.46 while the Phoenix Suns rank 4th at 5.77. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 58-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-30-21 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Logan Webb(RHP1-1, 4.03 ERA, 24 SO)enjoyed his best start of the season against the Marlins on Sunday, when he tossed seven scoreless innings and matched a career high with eight strikeouts. He has a 1.80 ERA in three career games against San Diego. Meanwhile, Padres ace, Yu Darvish(RHP2-1, 2.27 ERA, 37 SO)The Padres traded for Yu Darvish to be their ace. And he's looked the part. Darvish has allowed only one run in each of his past four starts, and he has lasted at least six innings in all four, giving up a total of just 11 hits in that span.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-30-21 | Royals v. Twins -140 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Michael Pineda(RHP1-1, 2.42 ERA, 22 SO) is looking to bounce back from his shortest outing this season, in which he went 4 1/3 innings and allowed four earned runs against the Pirates. Despite the rough outing, Pineda has been one of Minnesota's best starters this season. His 2.42 ERA and .193 opposing batting average rank second in the Twins' rotation and his overall form givers me the confidence to back him here today. PINEDA is 11-1 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Twins are 19-0 L/19 on the ML as a -140 or greater favorite after a 5+ run win as a road favorite last game. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.50 or less ) (AL), cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 4-36 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. Play on the Minnesota Twins to win |
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04-30-21 | Blazers -1 v. Nets | 128-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
With Irving out, the Blazers Im betting have an edge in this contest. The Nets are also on tired legs after playing last night and have not been good bets in back to back affairs. Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-5 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to win |
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04-30-21 | Spurs v. Celtics OVER 219.5 | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest. The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers. SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. BOSTON is 21-9 OVER after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-29-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -149 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Antonio Senzatela(RHP1-3, 5.76 ERA, 15 SO) held the D-backs to four hits in eight scoreless innings on April 7, but he is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA in nine career games at Chase Field and after recently showing control issues is fade material in this spot.The Rockies are 0-10 on the ML when Antonio Senzatela starts as a road dog when their bullpen gave up runs in each of their last two games.Rockies are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. National League West. Play on the Dbacks to win |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder +9 | 109-95 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this game having lost 6 of their L/8 and are a hard fought 114-112 loss vs the Denver Nuggets last time out and could easily be susceptible to a emotional letdown scenario. NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 25-58 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Thunder took a 111-110 win las time these teams met this season) Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-29-21 | Raptors +3 v. Nuggets | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Nuggets, and earlier this season gave them a good beating. I know the Nuggets are out looking for revenge, but they are on tired legs and off a grueling affair vs the Pelicans last time out pulling off a 114-112 win and susceptible to a letdown scenario. DENVER is 4-12 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season . Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231 | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -134 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
White Sox starter Cease has nine career wins, with a 5-0 record vs. Detroit and gets my support here again today. DETROIT is 0-13 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - after a game without an extra base hit are 47-3 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less are 7-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago White Sox to win |
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04-29-21 | Warriors v. Wolves +6 | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in a groove and have won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and in their current form must be respected as home underdogs vs an over hyped Golden State brand. GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Warriors are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 Thursday games. Warriors have failed to cover 6 of L/8 at Minnesota. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 7-29 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers +188 | 1-2 | Win | 188 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. Brewers Im betting bounce back after yesterdays loss. Note: Milwaukee are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss. MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-95 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. LAs starter Trevor Bauer Over his last three games, Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Opponents hit .138 off Bauer in those three games. Both these starters will help keep this game on the low side of the total. MILWAUKEE is 30-12 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons.
Play on UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 240 | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note: Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Detroit seems to be able to deal with the Canes well, and that was evident in recent back to back wins in this series. I know the Canes have revenge on board, but you don't always get what you want.Red Wings are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Carolina. CAROLINA is 0-5 ATS in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp in the 2nd half of the year over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Red Wings to cover +1.5 |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
EDMONTON is 7-15 ATS in home games against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. |
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04-28-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 101-109 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13 L/15 home after 5 or more road games. LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants -147 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants starter Alex Wood(LHP)2-0, 0.75 ERA, 11 SOWood has given up only one run on four hits over 12 innings in his first two starts of the year, both of which came against the Marlins and has momentum on his side going into this matchup. The Rockies are 0-10 L/10 on the ML when their starter German Marquez starts on the road when they won as an home favorite in his last start. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Marquez who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Giants to win |
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04-28-21 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 213 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 23-9 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario for an over wager to cash . My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total. Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite. CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. Borrego is 15-2 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -6 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. BOSTON is 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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04-28-21 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 210 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Red Sox +225 v. Mets | 1-0 | Win | 225 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
BoSox starter Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.48 ERA, 18 SO)The righty had a solid last outing vs. Seattle on Thursday, giving up two runs on one hit and striking out four in six innings and my support here on a bloated runline offering. BOSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. DEGROM is 10-14 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Mets top tier starter DEGROM is 10-14 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DeGrom has never beaten the Red Sox in 3 career starts. Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog.Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Red Sox are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. .MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Red Sox to win |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -201 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw(LHP)3-2, 2.56 ERA, 31 SOAfter allowing five runs on Opening Day against the Rockies, Kershaw is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four starts and gets my support here today . KERSHAW is 80-28 against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record) The Reds are 0-16 on the ML coming off a game as a road dog where they scored first, then trailed and came back to win. Play on the Dodgers to win |
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04-28-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
The Twins are 0-12 UNDER L/12 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks with none of the games eclipsing this total. Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 5-2-2 in Twins last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 21-9-2 in Twins last 32 games following a loss.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 13-6-2 in Twins last 21 during game 3 of a series. Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 47-22-3 in Indians last 72 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 58-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. |
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04-27-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +149 | 1-5 | Win | 149 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Padres starter C.Paddack has been shaky, allowing 14 runs across 18 innings, and is fade material in his current form. KELLY the Dbacks starter is 7-0 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Diamondbacks are 10-0 L/10 on the ML in the first game of a series with rest after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game. ARIZONA is 10-2 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 19-4 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. Play on Arizona to win |
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04-27-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 104 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
KELLY the Dbacks starter is 13-3 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Padres are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite after they had a comeback win last game. ARIZONA is 12-3 UNDER vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 45-15 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Wolves -1.5 v. Rockets | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Both sides may not inspire bettors but according to my projections the Wolves are the better side, and have been competitive lately with their star Towns back in the lineup winning 3 of their L/5 and showing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the rockets have lost 14 of their L/16 overall and rarely look like their doing anything but going through the motions. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( as a home underdog of 6 points or less this seasonHOUSTON is 7-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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04-27-21 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 235 | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under. HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Carlos Martinez ( RHP 0-4, 6.00 ERA, 13 SO) is prone to inconsistent starts and according to pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up badly vs the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter EFLIN is 18-6 OVER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)The Cardinals are 9-0 OVER L/9 when Carlos Martinez starts at home when they lost in his last start.EFLIN is 11-1 OVER in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) which was the case last time out with a combined average of 11.6 rpg. Play OVER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors +6 | 116-103 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Nets are off a big win, against the Suns, last time out , and will now be in a letdown situation vs the Raptors tonight . Meanwhile, the Raptors despite of still not being a championship side are still a capable side, and have been playing better lately and deserve respect as hosts here. Note: Toronto is 5-0 SU L/5 as hosts in this series.TORONTO is 18-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Play on the Raptors to cover |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. BOSTON is 14-4 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |