Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Bengals QB Joe Burrow is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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09-24-23 | Bears +13 v. Chiefs | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-24-23 | Panthers +6 v. Seahawks | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 24 m | Show | |
Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence, and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair. Meanwhile, the Panthers were edged out by a FG at home against the New Orleans Saints in prime time Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note: Seahawks are 0-4 ATS L4 vs the NFC South, Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive. SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover |
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09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 50 m | Show | |
These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they do go against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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09-24-23 | Pirates v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
After yesterdays 13-12 slugfest Im betting on immediate offensive regression here in a game with huge post season implications for the Reds. CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 21-8 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. MLB Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a winning team are 55-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play under |
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09-24-23 | Pirates +140 v. Reds | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh (74-81) rallied from a 9-0 deficit on Saturday, putting up 13 consecutive runs from the fourth into the eighth inning in a wild, 13-12 final and have momentum coming into this tilt in the spoilers role. Note: Reds starter Brandon Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) will start Sunday . The rookie left-hander has not posted a win since striking out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Miami on Aug. 7 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today. CINCINNATI is 0-8 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season. CINCINNATI is 0-6 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. is 1-8 against the money line in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season. CINCINNATI is 1-10 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season. MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less are 17-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. Play on Pirates to win |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6.5 v. Dolphins | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 57 m | Show | |
Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said. Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton 24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides coming off a victory. MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Play on Denver Broncos to cover |
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09-24-23 | Texans +9.5 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 38 m | Show | |
Houston has owned the Jags in previous meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning 15 of their L/18 visits here SU and have cashed 5 of their L/6 SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall. I know Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that Jacksonville is 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Texans to cover |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -145 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times and after going down 0-2 already are desperate for a win , which is unfortunate for QB Zach Wilson and his NY Jets. Considering Bill Belichick 18-3 SU L/21 in games when coming off back to back losses Im betting the Pats winning streak against the Jets remains intact. Also it must be noted without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets they will have major problems moving the ball. Play on New England to win |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +1.5 v. Vikings | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show | |
I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat, This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chargers to cover |
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09-23-23 | Central Florida v. Kansas State -3.5 | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 57 h 21 m | Show | |
KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Kansas State to cover |
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09-23-23 | Sam Houston State +12.5 v. Houston | 7-38 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 25 m | Show | |
What stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season , and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Sam Houston to cover |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show | |
Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a revenger for last season loss against LSU (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect Sam Pittman who has only failed in one of 8 ATS as is visitor with revenge to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also 7-1-1 ATS on the road with conference revenge on board. . : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. . Play on Arkansas to cover |
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09-23-23 | Brewers -116 v. Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Woodruff in limited action has been brilliant this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. In his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and in three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Rinse and repeat here vs a Marlins side that is slumping as is evident by three losses in their past four games. They also have lost four of five matchups with the Brewers over the past two weeks and Im betting on them adding to those negative numbers today. MILWAUKEE is 22-15 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. MILWAUKEE is 38-18 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. MIAMI is 16-37 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 53-109 L/26 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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09-23-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -165 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 116 h 23 m | Show | |
09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas OVER 54.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. Leipold is 10-1 OVER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. Play over |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show | |
Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line. . Play on Alabama to cover |
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09-23-23 | Kentucky -13 v. Vanderbilt | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt could not even beat a Mountain West team last week losing to UNLV by a 40-37 count. I know that Kentucky plays Florida next week, but Im absolutely sure they will still be focused enough to dispose of this defensively deficient Commodores team in what will be a near empty stadium this Saturday. CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 43-1 SU with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +23.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Kentucky to cover |
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09-23-23 | Florida State v. Clemson +2.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Clemson not getting much respect here as the Seminoles are listed a road favs. Thats interesting since considering Dabo Swinney is 93-8 SU since taking over the program 15 seasons ago , and in Death Valley against undefeated opposition is 14-0 since 2015. It must also be noted that the Seminoles may not be as good as they record suggests after a ugly late game effort vs Boston College last week, where they just about lost,. With head coach Mike Norvell losing 3 of 5 SU and just 1-4 ATS away in conference games when coming in with no losses, its not like the Seminoles deserve this much respect as Norvell has lost both meetings against Swinnney in his career. Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five in this series and get the nod again on their own home turf. CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game since 1992. FLORIDA ST is 21-37 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) . an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 45-16 ATS since 1992 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Clemson to cover |
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09-22-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -109 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rookie right-hander Bryce Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) will start the opener for Seattle.Miller is winless over his past five starts and has looked fatigued on occasion. Meanwhile, Right-hander Dane Dunning (10-6, 3.78) will go to the hill for Texas. He gave up six hits in five shutout innings during a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday and enters this tilt in good form. Dunning won vs the the Mariners on May 10 when he gave up two runs and six hits over six innings and gets my support here tonight. TEXAS is 19-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.(Beat Boston 15-5 last time out) SEATTLE is 8-20 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season MLB Home teams (TEXAS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 89-40 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors against opponent after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 32-85 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas to win |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has owned this series winning 16 straight meetings and covering 13 of those. With HC Fickell looking like he has this Badgers team on the rise again, Im betting they get the job done vs a disorganized looking Purdue side, that continually makes bad offensive reads and a defense that has allowed and average of 30 plus points per game. Play on Wisconsin to cover |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10.5 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -108 | 83 h 41 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a 31 points second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants. NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Georgia State looked explosive in thier first 3 games of the season with wins vs Rhode Island Connecticut and Charlotte scoring 42,35, and 41 points respectively. With revenge on board for a ugly loss to Coastal Carolina last season, you can bet we will be backing a wide awake side that will come out here with all guns blazing. With that said, its interesting to note that the Chanticleers are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 vs a side that will play them with revenge as a motivating factor. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 11-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Play on Georgia State to cover |
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09-20-23 | Orioles -103 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Baltimore took out Houston yesterday by a 9-5 count and are viable options to do the same again today. The Astros dropped to 38-39 at home with four games left on the home schedule. Orioles starter BRADISH is 10-0 against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BRADISH is 15-4 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) BRADISH is 11-4 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Bradish is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over two career starts against the Astros. The righty went eight scoreless innings against Houston on Aug. 26, 2022, then he garnered another 8 2/3 shutout frames vs. the Astros on Sept. 22, 2022. Bradish has allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out 16 in those outings. The flipside, Houstons starter Javier went 2-0 in five starts in August despite of garnering 6.17 ERA and .922 opponents' OPS with 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. In his current form he is fade material agains this type of sometimes explosive offense. HOUSTON is 3-8 against the money line in home games in September games this season. BALTIMORE is 12-2 against the money line in road games against AL West opponents this season.BALTIMORE is 9-4 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season this season. Play on Baltimore to win |
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09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Colorado has allowed 22 runs in their L/2 games, and with their bullpen showing exhaustion Im betting they get pummeled again vs a Padres offense that come to life of late as is evident by average 7.6 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. Considering the Rockies bats have also looked alert in recent games averaging 7 rpg in their L/7 games Im betting we see a fairly high scoring affair. COLORADO is 7-0 OVER in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 13.1 rpg scored. COLORADO is 24-12 OVER after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scorecd.
Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (COLORADO) - allowing 5.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games are 33-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Los Angeles (68-82) without their injured star Shohei Ohtani are fade material in their current form. Halos starter SANDOVAL is 1-11 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) LA ANGELS are 14-31 SU when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season with the average rpg diff clicking in -2.3 .
TAMPA BAY is 18-3 SU vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with the 3.6 rpg diff .TAMPA BAY is 37-11 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.3 which easily qualifies on this runline offering from the books. MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (LA ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last 5 games are 38-8 L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the a rpg diff of +3.1. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win -1.5 runline |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is 8-1 SU when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also 14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are 1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory. CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival . NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-18-23 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Milwaukees starter PERALTA is 16-2 OVER in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12 rpg scored. (Peralta allowed one run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Miami Marlins last Tuesday) PERALTA is 1-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.580. Cards starter Wainwright (4-11, 7.95 ERA) picked up victory in his last out in the Cardinals' 5-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday. However, prior to that he went 0-10 with a 10.72 ERA.MILWAUKEE is 12-1 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.40 or worse over the last 2 seasons like Wainwright with 12.5 rpg going on the board. Wainwright owns a bloated 7.95 ERA on the season, and looks to be worn out entering this game, giving credence to what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring game right out of the gate. Play over |
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09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
OAKLAND is 13-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse since 1997 like San Diegos starter Martinez who currently owns a 1.935 WHIP on the season overall. SAN DIEGO is 31-42 against the money line in road games this season. Oakland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games and Im betting they keep it close today or pull of the ML underdog upset. The safest high probability bet at the most viable price is to take the run-line. Play on the As to cover +1.5 on the runline |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 45 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 51 m | Show | |
Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season allowing just 17.2 ppg and are off holding the Steelers to 7 points and a total of 239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to Seattle in week 1 action and slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by allowing just 180 total yards and only 13 points. Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2 sides playing in the their 2nd of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away sides like SF, have gone under 13 of their L/14 road games after allowing 7 pts or less on the road in their previous game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show | |
There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort. Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 46 m | Show | |
Bengals star QB is off a ugly game week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home. Rinse and repeat. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-17-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Texans | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
Colts QB Richardson was overall impressive in his first NFL start. He ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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09-17-23 | Lynx v. Sun OVER 158 | 82-75 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Connecticut blasted Minnesota by a 90-60 count in game 1 of this series, and Im betting they light the board up again, but for the Lynx to reciprocate with some offensive fire works of their own in a tilt Im projecting to eclipse this total. MINNESOTA is 8-1 OVER revenging a blowout loss versus opponent by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 176.4 ppg scored. CONNECTICUT is 10-3 OVER in home games after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games this season with aq combined average of 167.7 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 Sunday games. Over is 5-2 in Lynx last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 7-3 in Lynx last 10 overall. Over is 4-1 in Sun last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 13-5 in Sun last 18 home games. Over is 5-2 in Sun last 7 vs. Western Conference. Over is 5-2 in Sun last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (MINNESOTA) - off a road blowout loss by 20 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 37-9 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 165 ppg going on the board. Play over |
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09-16-23 | Kansas -28 v. Nevada | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 51 m | Show | |
Ken Wilson’s Nevada are a defensively challenged team as is evident by allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more point favorite . NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 30.2 . CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show | |
After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be. TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. Longhorns are also 0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites in matchups when they are off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points. Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series. Play on Wyoming to cover |
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09-16-23 | New Mexico State +1.5 v. New Mexico | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show | |
The New Mexico Lobos are 0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a 21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want . New Mexico State to cover |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 53 m | Show | |
Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't faced any top tier opponents, only taking out a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition. Play on Purdue to cover |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show | |
Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home. CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play on Florida to cover |
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09-16-23 | James Madison +3 v. Troy | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 59 h 31 m | Show | |
JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week, in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win. Play on James Madison to cover |
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09-16-23 | South Carolina +28 v. Georgia | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The GameCocks own a 7-0 ATS record as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more.
GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Play on South Carolina to cover |
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09-16-23 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 47 | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
ECU defense ranks 99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.) Play over |
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09-16-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -121 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
After yesterdays 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays the BoSox have now lost 8 of their L/10 games and are fade material in their current form. Yesterday the Jays snapped a 4 games losing streak and now have some momentum on their sides and with Bassit who owns a 2.55 ERA in his L/3 starts on the hill have an edge over Boston starter Sale and a bullpen that is sub par as is evident by a 4.34 ERA on the season. Note: Bassitt is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA vs the BoSox and his career. He beat the Red Sox on Aug. 6 after throwing seven innings of one-run ball. SALE is 17-24 against the money line in September games since 1997. (Team's Record) BOSTON is 12-40 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 3-17 against the money line in road games after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 6-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to win |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Southern +19.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 11 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss. Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall. Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today. Play on Georgia southern to cover |
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09-15-23 | Reds +100 v. Mets | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Left-hander David Peterson (3-8, 5.34 ERA) is slated to start for the Mets against right-hander Hunter Greene (4-6, 4.43). Greene returned from the COVID-19 injured list on Sunday, and he earned the win after allowing just an unearned run on one hit over six innings in the Reds' 7-1 victory over the visiting St. Louis Cardinals and has momentum entering this tilt as gives the Reds the advantage here today. CINCINNATI is 11-2 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season. NY METS are 4-11 against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 56-18 L/5 seasons for a76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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09-15-23 | Virginia +15 v. Maryland | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a wide awake bounce back effort here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss. CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100 or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Virginia to cover |
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09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
In the opener, New York right-hander Gerrit Cole (13-4, 2.79 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.34). My projections estimate that the Yankees will score 5 plus runs and the Pirates 3 plus runs which gives us an edge on an over ticket cashing here today. PITTSBURGH is 11-3 OVER in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 16-4 OVER after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less this season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. BOONE is 20-8 OVER vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scorec. MLB road teams (NY YANKEES) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 44-9 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the over |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Philadelphia did not look good against New England this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9 ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in their L/6 home openers, NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -126 | 6-1 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Padres starter SNELL is 10-18 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 14-25 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Snell has had a strong season, but the Dodgers can make the best of pitcher look average. Im betting that will be the situation today. Snell has lost 2 of 3 starts vs the dodgers this season. LA DODGERS are 26-9 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. LA DODGERS are 21-8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 70-38 L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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09-13-23 | Lynx +9 v. Sun | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
"The Lynx are just the second team in league history to make the playoffs after starting 0-6, and must not be under estimated in their ability to compete here tonight against the Connecticut Sun. Collier, Kayla McBride, Aerial Powers, Jessica Shepard and (Dorka) Juhasz, have shown alot of cohesion as the season, has progressed, and despite a few stumbles to end their season are a viable underdog side to back . While I dont believe they can win this game outright, I do believe in them not going out with a whimper at least in game 1.MINNESOTA is 20-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons .Reeve is 28-15 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of MINNESOTA. Lynx are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Lynx are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Lynx are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -150 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
After taking it on the chin yesterday by a 11-8 count Im betting the Dodgers come back with a big time bounce back effort today vs the Padres. LA DODGERS are 40-17 against the money line after a loss this season. LA DODGERS are 15-3 against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season. LA DODGERS are 34-12 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like the Padres starter Wacha. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 88-30 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LAD to win |
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09-11-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 11-8 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Padres Pedro Avila goes to the hill. The righty is 1-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. Avila is 0-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 10 strikeouts in his career against the Dodgers and matches up well here. Avila just pitched 6.2 scoreless innings against the PadresThe Padres pitching staff is 4th in ERA (3.86), 16th in WHIP (1.29) and 4th in quality starts (66). On the flip side, G.Stone despite of not pitching well goes against, a Padres offense that is highly inconsistent, as is evident , by a offense that is ranked in 17th in runs per game (4.55), 22nd in batting average (.242). Everything points to a lower scoring affair. SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg. SAN DIEGO is 33-17 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 8.1 rpg going on the board. SAN DIEGO is 12-2 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg. ROBERTS is 48-30 UNDER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 as the manager of LA DODGERS with a combined average of 8.4 rpg. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 43-10 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. Play on the under |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 107 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings with 37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies +130 | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is currently four games up in the first NL Wild Card spot and will be playing hard against a team that already has their post season destiny in hand. Advantage Phillies. Atlantas starter MORTON is 17-32 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) MORTON is 5-8 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.575. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or more ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 49-104 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to win |
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09-10-23 | Rams +5.5 v. Seahawks | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 22 m | Show | |
The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. . LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle. Play on Rams to cover |
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09-10-23 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 1 m | Show | |
New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers getting his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick . The loser of the previous Super Bowl if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons. Play on New England Pats to cover |
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09-10-23 | Orioles -102 v. Red Sox | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Baltimore has won 7 straight games and has big time momentum going into this tilt. I know The Red Sox are desperate and Bello their starter is a consistent go to pitcher, but considering how explosive the Os batting order is right now very few pitchers in this league could handle them in their current form. BALTIMORE is 9-0 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive overs this season. BOSTON is 2-9 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.BOSTON is 4-12 against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997. MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to win |
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09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 11 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog. Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta. Carolina to cover |
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09-10-23 | Sky +10 v. Sun | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Chicago has been highly competitive recently covering 6 of their L/7 and deserve respect here getting points. The Connecticut Sun Im betting sit some players as their play off destiny is secured as the third seed. Sky are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Connecticut. WNBA team (CONNECTICUT) - good free throw shooting team (76-80%) against an average free throw shooting team (71-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 45% better of their shots are 39-77 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
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09-10-23 | Mystics +10 v. Liberty | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Mystics seem to always bring their A game out when playing the Liberty. . The regular season ends Sunday in New York Im betting will rest key players on a roster that has weathered injuries all summer. Mystics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and deserve respect here getting this many points.Liberty are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. WNBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, vs. division opponents are 35-71 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate. Mystics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Play on the Washington to cover |
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09-09-23 | Arizona +9 v. Mississippi State | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 42 m | Show | |
Mississippi State in memory of ther late coach Mike Leach put up a huge effort winning a decisive 48-7 decision vs SE Louisiana last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this week, that will likely see regression. It must be noted that Mississippi State smashed the Arizona by 22 points back in 2022 (39-17)and now with revenge on board, you can bet this Wildcats side will be primed to play and with them getting points Im betting we have value. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 19-6 L/31 seasons for. a76% conversion rate. Play on Arizona to cover |
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09-09-23 | Temple +9 v. Rutgers | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 21 m | Show | |
The Knights beat the Northwestern Wildcats last time out 24-7, in a tilt that saw Rutgers gain just 283 yards of offense which tells me that this team is being over rated here . Meanwhile, the Owls came from behind to beat a pretty good Akron team last time by allowing the Zips to just 38 yards of offense in the 2nd half. Note: The Owls program has cashed 6 of their L/7 openers against opposition that just notched a victory.Schiano is 0-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival as the coach of RUTGERS. CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 6-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.2 . Play on Temple to cover |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 30 m | Show | |
Texas almost tripped up Saban and company last season losing a 20-19 heart breaker , but now Alabama will come in here very prepared and ready to make a statement and not be ambushed again vs the Longhorns. It must be noted that Saban vs his former assistants is 28-2 SU and 4-0 SU/ATS as a host when favored by 18 points or less. Also Texas has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference away tilts and must not be over estimated in their ability to compete in this SEC road environment. Saban is 19-9 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ALABAMA. Best Bet. Alabama to cover |
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09-09-23 | Central Florida v. Boise State +3.5 | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 34 m | Show | |
I know The Broncos lost their first game of the season in ugly fashion, but this this is a much better team than their performance vs Washington last week, and now Im expecting them to have a huge bounce back effort here on the blue carpet against a over rated UFC football program. I know Central Florida can really light things up, but this Boise side ranked 11th in the nation in D, last season, and are more than capable of slowing down their explosive opposition . Boise State is 21-0 SU in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one campaigns and Im betting wont easily be defeated here tonight at home. UCF is 0-6 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF won 56-6 vs Kent State last week) BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 26-6 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boise State to cover |
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09-09-23 | Connecticut +3 v. Georgia State | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
The Georgia State Panthers took a seven point victory over Rhode Island last week but their defense looked atrocious as is evident by giving up 35 points on 520 total yards . They score enough to come out with a win, but that was nota good look and will be their downfall this week, as I dont believe their offense can be as effective vs this under rated UConn side that gave a good N.Carolina State squad all they could handle in a 24-14 loss. Note: Georgia state have lost 7 of their L/11 at home SU and are not solid favs. UConn to cover |
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09-09-23 | Orioles +130 v. Red Sox | 13-12 | Win | 130 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
The Os smashed the Bosox 11-2 yesterday and have momentum entering this tilt after 6 straight wins. Baltimores starter FLAHERTY is 18-7 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Y is 10-1 against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Boston sends lefty Chris Sale (6-3, 4.46). Sale's velocity has been down since he returned from a stress reaction in his left shoulder blade , and against this type of offense could easily have problems. BOSTON is 6-16 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to win |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4.5 | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 69 h 0 m | Show | |
Miami out gained Texas A&M last season by a 392-264 count but couldnt punch through for a victroy, but this season, in this venue could see them turn the trick in the rematch. It must be noted that the Aggies program has not faired well in road openers in the recent past in their L/17 as visitors to start their season have failed to cover 6 games as a favorite of 3 or more points. Miami is also 5-0 SUATS the last five as a non-conference home dog, and are once again value line underdogs vs a over rated opponent. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.( Miami smashed Miami O last week 38-3) Miami to cover |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 4 m | Show | |
I know Colorado had a big game and upset TCU last week, but now Im betting the Buffs to be in an emotional letdown situation and ripe for an upset of their own. Hey I know Nebraska just cant get over the hump no matter who their coach is , but HC Rhule deserves respect in the underdog role on the road where his teams are 9-3 ATS . ( Lost ot Minnesota 13-10 last week in a grinding affair, andIm betting they can turn this game into trench warfare again) COLORADO is 0-7 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 9-22 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992. CFB road team (NEBRASKA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 53-22 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NEBRASKA is 7-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1992 here on the road. Play on Nebraska to cover |
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09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7.5 | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 37 m | Show | |
North Carolina State took a 10-point win at under rated UConn and must be respected here at home as dogs.It must be noted that HC Dave Doeren is 4-1 ATS at home in abattle of of undefeated sides, and 12-0 SU in home openers. I know the Irish mashed a couple of over rated patsies ( Navy, Tenn State) but this is whole diff type of team they face here this afternoon . Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack's 3-3-5 defense over the years- Im betting on a Rince and repeat situation. NOTRE DAME is 2-11 ATS in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 21-52 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NC State to cover |
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09-08-23 | Padres v. Astros -123 | 11-2 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Padres starter SNELL is 3-14 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)SNELL is 8-15 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) HOUSTON is 17-0 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) like the Fathers starter Snell over the last 3 seasons. Snell has pitched well overall this season, but the Astros have a recent history of taking advantage of hurlers with sub par control. the Padres southpaw has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors this season. SAN DIEGO is 4-11 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. SAN DIEGO is 8-21 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. MLB team (HOUSTON) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 47-11 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to win |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year) KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. KC HC Andy Reid is 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming by double-digits. Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 52 | 21-20 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over 4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB Jeff Goff who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is 8-0 L/8 OVER Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight. Play over. |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
FRIED is 4-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.35 and a WHIP of 0.857 and Im projecting another top tier effort from a quality pitcher in good form as is evident by a current 2.52 ERA on the season.The Braves pitching has imploded in their L/2 games, and they will be primed to right that ship today. Meanwhile, Cards starter Wainwright has gone 10-4 with a 3.42 ERA against the Braves in 21 games (16 starts) since the 2003 season and despite of some inconsistencies during this campaign is still capable of slowing . down the Braves explosive offense. ST LOUIS is 51-36 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.4 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (ATLANTA) - very good offensive team ( 5.0 or more runs/game) against a terrible starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or worse) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 35-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after 3 straight games where they committed no errors, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 1.900 or more over his last 10 starts are 40-15 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-06-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks (71-68) after a loss yesterday are in what you might call as deseration mode even. they are currently one game behind the Cincinnati Reds in the battle for the National League's third wild-card spot. The Miami Marlins are a half-game ahead of Arizona. They need to win and will be very motivated. Rockies starter Flexen owns a ugly 1-6 record along with a bloated 7,83 ERA on the season and is fade material here according to my power rankings. Flexen is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA in seven starts since joining the Rockies. Flexen is 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four career starts against Arizona. Advantage Arizona on the runline. Arizonas starter Davies limited the Baltimore Orioles to one run and four hits over six innings in a 4-2 win on Friday and has momentum entering this tilt. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.8 which qualifies on this run-line offering. Play on Arizona to win -1.5 runline |
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09-05-23 | Dodgers -149 v. Marlins | 3-6 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Dodgers starter Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) had a six-week absence earlier this season with a wore shoulder and since his return, and recently he has recorded a stingy 2.12 ERA over his last 17 innings and looks to have shaken off the shoulder issues. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Marlins Luzardo has pitched better of late had a a three-start malfunction at the beginning of August when he went 0-3 with an 11.68 ERA. He can be a viable pitcher but here against this explosive Dodgers offense Im betting he relapses again. LA DODGERS are 83-37 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 11-31 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 3-15 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - team with a good SLG (.430 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 39-7 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Dodgers |
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09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians +100 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Twins starter GRAY is 1-7 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Guardians rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee (10-3, 3.03), matches up well here vs Gray and the Twins offense. Advantage Cleveland on a value line. CLEVELAND is 23-9 against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 2-8 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season.
MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - team with a sub par SLG (.400 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. are 29-9 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) are 36-13 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
Duke is 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season home openers and last season were 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in HC Mike Elko’s first season at the helm of the Blue Devils football program. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers vaunted D, has to replace four NFL draft picks giving Dukes Junior quarterback Riley Leonard a chance at a big night as he looks to pad a 33 touchdown and a 3,600 yards offensive performance last season. This is a opportunity to make a statement here for Elko and his q8 returning starters. With that said, Im on this Blue Devils group as Im betting they will be primed to really come out here and play hard tonight in a never say die take no prisoners gridiron battle.DUKE is 8-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Play on Duke to cover |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 14 games and look completely asleep at the proverbial wheel. The Rockies have lost each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks are battling with the Marlins, Giants, and Reds for the last wild card spot and need wins badly and Im betting will play like it here today. Merrill Kelly gets the ball, and he is 10-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 147 strikeouts this season and gives the Dbacks the edge on the hill. KELLY is 10-1 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.4. COLORADO is 3-34 against the money line as an underdog of +200 or more this season with a average rpg diff of +3.6 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or more hitters each of his last 2 outings are 76-13 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff of +2.5 going on the board. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average run per game diff clicking in at +2.1 which qualifies on this runline offering. Play on Dbacks -1.5 to cover on the runline |
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09-04-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -122 | 7-3 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Bostons starter BELLO is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.857 and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup all that well here vs the Rays. TAMPA BAY is 21-5 against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 5-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are 96-25 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to win |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
Florida State has 18 returning starters off a 10 win campaign, while their opponents the LSU Tigers were hit hard by the NFL draft losing 10 starters from last seasons group. It must also be noted that the Tigers have been virtual pussy cats on the road failing to cover 6 of their L/8 overall while the Seminoles are 9-0-2 ATS in their L/11 games played in Orlando and are 7-1 SU L/8 games in this series and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the young men from the Bayou. LSU has lost its last 3 season openers and I would not be surprised if they register another one here as the Seminoles vaunted ground game does enough to get through a tough Tigers run D. Play on Florida State to cover |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show | |
OSU finished last season on a 7-0 ATS run and enter this season with momentum while their opponents San Jose State finished their campaign on an exact polar opposite 0-7 ATS run and than lost their opener this season to USC by a 56-28 count. SJU is just 1-26 SU in their L/27 line road games vs PAC 12 opponents and look to once again be cannon fodder in this tilt vs what is a far superior side. OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +19.9. Play on Oregon State to cover |
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09-03-23 | Twins +124 v. Rangers | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Twins are playing much better ball than the Rangers recently winning 4 of their L/6 overall including the first two games of this series . The Rangers have been particularly inconsistent at home where they are 0-6 L/6 (-9.70 Units / -100% ROI). Advantage once again resides with the Twins as road dogs here in game 3 of this series. Twins starter MAEDA is 2-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.149 and his team has won all 3 career starts vs the Rangers. Texas starter Gray is 3-11 against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-25 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to win |
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09-03-23 | Northwestern +7 v. Rutgers | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 796 h 43 m | Show | |
This year will mark the fourth straight season that Northwestern begins against a Big Ten opponent, having beaten Nebraska last year, fallen to Michigan State in 2021 and crushing Maryland in 2020. Northwestern is on a two-game winning streak against Rutgers dating back to 2018. Rutgers has averaged only 22 points per game vs. NU in 3 all time events, and Im betting they have problems scoring again in a game I have pegged to be a 1 score event giving us value with the TD + underdog line. Schiano is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents as the coach of RUTGERS. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 59-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northwestern to cover |
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09-02-23 | Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -15.5 | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
UCLA no longer has QB Dorian Thomas-Robinson but with 16 starters returning for the Bruins they should be just fine. With former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo in the fold for the Bruins some new looks could really make a the Bruins a dark-horse candidate this both in the PAc 12 and and the nation. Kelly has cashed his last 3 home openers and will once again be primed to juice an opponent, especially one traveling from east to west . Note: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover 8 of their L/12 as DD dogs. New CC HC Tim Beck has his hands full, in a game that Im betting ends in a conclusive UCLA win and cover CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 94-45 ATS L/31 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina -2 v. South Carolina | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
NC Coach Mack Brown is 26-4 SU in season openers, including winning 18 of his L/19. and with 18 starters back and top tier QB at the helm in Drake Maye and you have situation where the Heels are being under rated vs the over hyped Heisman hopeful QB Caleb Williams and company of South Carolina . With revenge on board for a ugly 38-21 loss back in 2021 , Mack will be primed to have his team ready out of the gate again this season. Note: The Gamecocks have lost 5 of their L/6 vs the ACC, while the Heels are a perfect 5-0 vs sides from the SEC as fav of 4 points or less like they are here today. North Carolina to cover |
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09-02-23 | Tigers v. White Sox -105 | 10-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Clevinger (6-6, 3.32 ERA) grabbed a victory vs Oakland Athletics on Sunday behind seven innings of one-run ball with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts. He has been dominant against Detroit in his career, going 8-2 with a 1.63 ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts and Im betting his gives his team an edge here today. MLB Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or worse ) (AL), starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 33-16 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago White Sox |
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09-02-23 | Akron +11 v. Temple | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 271 h 50 m | Show | |
Akron lost alot of close games last season, but now with improved running game, and the talented DJ Irons back at QB, they could find a way to make the gap small enough to ramp up more wins and more importantly covers and be even more competitive from a W/L perspective. Temple is still not back to their top programs they had 12 years ago, and Im projecting no more than a 4 wins this season and in their current form do not look capable of covering this line as favs. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in non-conference games are 49-20 L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors, Play on Akron to cover |
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09-02-23 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. SMU | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show | |
09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Boston College | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 42 m | Show | |
NIU went 3-9 last season, but five of the losses were by eight points or fewer. The 2021 team went 7-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Last year an array of injuries really gutted them and 2021 they were healthy. This program is built to be tough as nails, and out of the gate they are fairly healthy and deserve respect here as underdogs. The dogs are not a deep team but the starting 22 are projected to be gridiron take no prisoners war lords. Im betting Boston College has their hands full here today. N ILLINOIS is 53-26 ATS as a road underdog since 1992. Hammock is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of N ILLINOIS. CFB road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 26-10 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northern Illinois to over |
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09-01-23 | Braves -117 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
ATLANTA is 16-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Dodgers starter Urias. Note:Urias (11-7, 4.41 ERA) was the NL ERA champion a season ago, but he has been unable to back in top form and he also has suffered injury issues missing six weeks in the first half with a hamstring injury. He has been inconsistent since returning, registering four starts in which he allowed one run or none, three in which he gave up two or three runs, and three in which he allowed five plus runs. Braves starter FRIED is 16-6 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) FRIED is 35-12 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team (1.5 or more HR's/game) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 6-34 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 55-18 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on the Atlanta Braves to win |
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09-01-23 | Tigers -128 v. White Sox | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Chicago will send right-hander Touki Toussaint (2-6, 4.85 ERA). He been beaten up pretty hard but did have a good start last time out vs the lowly As, which still does not get me past some of his recent ugly performances. Meanwhile, Motown will send south paw Eduardo Rodriguez (9-7, 3.21)to the hill to face the White Sox. He is coming off a home loss to Houston on Saturday, when he allowed four runs and five hits in 4 2/3 innings with a season-high four walks and one strikeout.. In nine career starts versus Chicago covering 52 1/3 innings, he is 3-0 with a 3.61 ERA and gets my support here.RODRIGUEZ is 10-1against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CHI WHITE SOX are 17-31 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons like Rodriguez. CHI WHITE SOX are 13-31 ) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season. (Just finished a 3 game set at Baltimore)
Play on Detroit Tigers to win |
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09-01-23 | Central Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 45.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan returns nine starters on defense .After ranking top-50 nationally in EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards and they should be tough to work against once again. Michigan State returns four starters on the offensive line, but its line ranked 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in Stuff Rate allowed so scoring and moving the chains could easily be problem here tonight against a formidable defense. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has to replace their starting QB and running back from last season, and they also could find the sledding tough here early this season. The Spartans return seven starters on defense and the rest of the class looks to be tough as nails, Im seeing this being their strength this season. All in all Im projecting a fairly low scoring event with this Total not being eclipsed. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (C.MICH/MICHIGAN ST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 42-10 UNDER L/31 seasons with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Play under |
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08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +125 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Both these teams are red hot and both sides have starting pitchers who are in a top tier groove entering this tilt as Atlanta send Strider to the hill and the Dodgers send the veteran Lynn. . However is must be noted that the LA DODGERS are 13-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Strider and have an edge here playing at home. ATLANTA is 13-21 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LA DODGERS are 12-1 against the money line in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. LA DODGERS are 50-16 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 55 games at home (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI) MLB Home teams (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 112-44 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (LA DODGERS) - red hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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08-31-23 | Mystics +10.5 v. Aces | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
The Mystics seem to always bring their A game in against top tier opponents like the Aces . WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Vegas is off an extended road trip and make take time to get acclimated to home cooking again. LAS VEGAS is 2-9 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 6-15 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Vegas has failed cover 5 straight games. Play on Washington to cover |
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08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 46.5 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
NC Carolinas defense was elite last season, and will once again come in with some of the best defensive players in all of college football especially at the linebacker position ie Payton Wilson. Last years offensive coordinator Beck left NC for Coastal Carolina, so the offense will Im betting be a work in progress out of the gate against a strong UConn defense. Note: NC Star quarterback Devin Leary transferred to Kentucky so as I said, things will be different, and will take time to jell. On the flipside, the Huskies will once again lean on their running game, behind new QB Joe Fagnano and that will eat up alot of clock time in what should be a grinding early season affair that gives the edge to the defenses and not the offenses. NC STATE is 22-6 UNDER when playing on a Thursday since 1992 with a combined average score 44.9 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (UCONN/NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 84-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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08-31-23 | Mercury +13.5 v. Sun | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Phoenix ranks last in the league, winning just nine of their 35 games this season, and are on a six-game losing streak and thanks to those numbers are now being under rated by the linesmakers here. I cannot see the Sun being very motivated here and that alone may be the difference maker. White is 2-10 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1997. PHOENIX is 10-2 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a sub par team (-7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-27 L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Mercury to cover |
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08-30-23 | Rangers v. Mets +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
The first two games in this series have been won by 1 run deficits and Im betting on another close tilt . SHOWALTER is 20-5 against the money line in home games after 2 straight one run losses in all games he has managed since 1997 with the average rpg diff clicking in at +0.6 which qualifies on this runline offering. Rangers starter DUNNING is 2-10 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 5-17 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 2-17 against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 4-17 against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +130 to -255) (TEXAS) - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games are 11-45 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. Play on the NY Mets to win +1.5 runline |
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08-30-23 | Padres v. Cardinals -106 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Padres starter Hill is 0-3 along with a bloated 9.53 ERA in his L/3 starts and is once again fade material according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. HILL is 14-25 against the money line in August games in his career (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 39-51 against the money line against right-handed starters this season like Cards starter Mikolas and have averaged just 4.3 rpg in offensive production vs orthodox pitching. SAN DIEGO is 9-18 against the money line against NL Central opponents this season.SAN DIEGO is 16-30 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. ST LOUIS is 8-1 at home against SAN DIEGO over the last few seasons after last nights win. Note:The Cardinals have won 16 of their last 17 day games against NL West opponents following a home win. Play on St.Louis to win |
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08-30-23 | Angels v. Phillies -163 | 10-8 | Loss | -163 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Phillies have won 5 straight and have an edge again today vs a very inconsistent Halos. PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season like LAA starter Detrmers. ETMERS is 6-15 against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. (Team's Record) Angels have struggled vs lefties like Phillies Sanchez during the last month as is evident by a 56 wRC+ with a 6.8% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate. LA ANGELS are 3-15 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (LA ANGELS) - with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 15 games, playing on Wednesday are 8-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phillies to win |